Job openings semestrial chartYeah, bottom line is imaginary, but the 12 period moving average is very objective.
About Job Openings: Total Nonfarm
JOLTS - Job Openings come in lower than expectedJOLTS - Job Openings
Rep: 8.863m 🚨Lower than Expected 🚨
Exp: 8.900m
Prev: 8.889m
Long Term Trend (DOWN)
Since May 2022 we have remained in a downward sloping channel reducing from 11.85m to current day 8.863m in job openings (see channel on chart).
Shorter Term Trend (Turning Down)
The number o
INTERERESTING POINT OF JOLTS AND SP500.
The recent months have shown contrasting trends between the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) and the S&P 500.Which one provides a more accurate depiction: the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) or the S&P 500?
Labor and unemployment - an objective look at the dataIt's important to look at multiple data points in labor and consumer reporting before drawing conclusions. Be skeptical of any financial or social media presenting a single data point as something to be optimistic or pessimistic about.
The chart covers comparative labor information:
Job opening
Again macro conditions don't foretell a crash soonIn May and August I made posts saying "Macro conditions don't foretell a market crash soon." Time has passed and it's all pretty much the same.
BUT!! Current world events might change everything. And see my other posts re likely imminent drops in the market. This post is just about macro.
Once aga
Market conditions STILL don't foretell a market crash soonBack in May I made a post "Market conditions don't foretell a market crash soon." Here we are almost four months later and not much has changed.
Again, some points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular event). Sorry for all the colors here, but everything is connected.
1. The Fed Rate
Jobs market doesn't lie This is Job openings minus continuing jobless claims. It makes the trends clear as day. There's another crash coming this year. There are only 1.7M job seekers and 10.8M open jobs. They will not get filled. They will close and the market will crash.
Macro conditions don't foretell a market crash soonSome points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular event):
1. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) has to start rising before SPX (yellow) drops. Currently UNRATE is declining.
2. The Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) seems to follow the Unemployed Persons Rate (USUP dark blue). USUP just fell
US job openings (inverted) against unemployment US job openings (inverted) against unemployment. US job openings (inverted) against unemployment.
The unemployment rate is very likely to riseJob openings are a leading indicator of the unemployment rate. Lower job openings lead to a unemployment rate higher.
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