SPX and Employment StatsShows relationship between SPX and Employment Stats.
Look for a change in trend between job openings, unemployment, and spx
JTSJOL trade ideas
Job openings semestrial chartYeah, bottom line is imaginary, but the 12 period moving average is very objective.
JOLTS - Job Openings come in lower than expectedJOLTS - Job Openings
Rep: 8.863m 🚨Lower than Expected 🚨
Exp: 8.900m
Prev: 8.889m
Long Term Trend (DOWN)
Since May 2022 we have remained in a downward sloping channel reducing from 11.85m to current day 8.863m in job openings (see channel on chart).
Shorter Term Trend (Turning Down)
The number of job openings went down by 26,000 from the previous month to 8,863 million in January 2024, the lowest in past three months and below the market consensus of 8.9 million.
Recent Months Movements
OCT - 8.690m (Local Low)
NOV - 8.930m (Local High) ~240,000 Increase
DEC - 8.889m (Lower) ~ 41,000 decrease
JAN - 8.863m (Lower) ~ 26,000 decrease
The hardest hit sector in the JOLTS Job Openings report was Retail with 170,000 less job openings than in Dec 2023 👀
Could this be staff let go in January 2024 after the Christmas retail rush?
Interestingly, on Monday the Johnson Redbook Index noted an increase from 2.7% to 3.1% in retail sales suggesting that sales from retail stores increased slightly last week.
The Redbook Index provides the YoY percentage increase or decrease of USD in retail sales in the United States (it is released weekly for the week that just past).
Currently the Redbook Index is oscillating around the average 3.59% level on the chart for retail sales. The Index currently illustrates that we are in moderate retail sales channel and this might reinforce that the 170,000 reduction in retail Job offerings may be seasonal.
Please review Macro Monday from this week for a full review of the Redbook Index and its chart history.
Thanks folks
PUKA
INTERERESTING POINT OF JOLTS AND SP500.
The recent months have shown contrasting trends between the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) and the S&P 500.Which one provides a more accurate depiction: the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) or the S&P 500?
Labor and unemployment - an objective look at the dataIt's important to look at multiple data points in labor and consumer reporting before drawing conclusions. Be skeptical of any financial or social media presenting a single data point as something to be optimistic or pessimistic about.
The chart covers comparative labor information:
Job openings (blue) are coming down quickly, which we've heard a lot about. However, we don't hear many talking about how there are still 2MM more job openings than the pre-covid maximum.
Participation (white) is increasing and coming close to recovering to a pre-covid level. Note that we haven't seen labor participation fully recover from the prior two recessions. Job openings (demand) should come down as participation (supply) increases, bringing them close to equilibrium
Unemployment (red) remains near a historic low
USCJC Continuing and initial jobless claims have increased slightly, but are still below recessionary levels. These will increase as more participants compete for positions.
USJO Job offers (green) and USJQ job quits (red) are each coming down, but remain very high. This is also consistent with more participation in the labor force. Permanent job losses (pink) have ticked up, but remain low. This is an important metric to keep an eye on.
Again macro conditions don't foretell a crash soonIn May and August I made posts saying "Macro conditions don't foretell a market crash soon." Time has passed and it's all pretty much the same.
BUT!! Current world events might change everything. And see my other posts re likely imminent drops in the market. This post is just about macro.
Once again, some points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular event). Sorry for all the colors here, but everything is connected.
1. The Fed Rate (FEDFUNDS dark purple) falls before unemployment rises and recession. Note that the market rose while the interest rate was at its peak in 2006-2007 and 2019. So a further interest rate rise in November shouldn't be a worry, not that it seems likely today looking at the CME Fedwatch Tool www.cmegroup.com
2. There are still more job openings than people to fill them (JTSJOL Non-Farm Job Openings minus USCJC US Continuing Jobless Claims - dark blue). Still unchanged since May.
3. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE dark gray) rises before SPX (yellow) drops. Currently UNRATE is up to 3.8% and unchanged August-September. Relatively static and close to multi-year lows.
4. Note that since May:
* Initial Jobless Claims (USIJC light blue at the bottom) have dropped
* Continuing Jobless Claims (USCJC light gray) are unchanged
* Non-farm Payrolls (USNFP green) are unchanged
* Job openings (JTSJOL light purple) fell slightly and rose back to the May level. At over 9m there are more available jobs that any time pre-COVID.
* The number of Employed Persons (USEMP light pink) is rising continuously and is now at 161.5m - almost 3m more that pre-COVID. There's your economic growth.
5. After a year in decline, M2 Money Supply rose during the summer but might now be falling - a negative indicator?
6. The SPX drop last year was a result of inflation -> rate rises -> fear. But the recession didn't happen and the economy still looks strong
Conclusion is that macro conditions still don't foretell a market crash in the immediate future.
NOT TRADING ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Market conditions STILL don't foretell a market crash soonBack in May I made a post "Market conditions don't foretell a market crash soon." Here we are almost four months later and not much has changed.
Again, some points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular event). Sorry for all the colors here, but everything is connected.
1. The Fed Rate (FEDFUNDS dark purple) falls before unemployment rises and recession. Note that the market rose while the interest rate was at its peak in 2006-2007 and 2019.
2. There are still more job openings than people to fill them (JTSJOL Non-Farm Job Openings minus USCJC US Continuing Jobless Claims - dark blue). Unchanged since May.
3. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE gray) rises as before SPX (yellow) drops. Currently UNRATE is pretty static and close to multi-year lows.
4. The following are static since May:
* Initial Jobless Claims (USIJC light blue)
* Continuing Jobless Claims (USCJC pink)
* Non-farm Payrolls (USNFP green)
* Job openings (JTSJOL light purple)
5. After a year in decline, M2 Money Supply is rising again (USM2 dark red).
6. The SPX drop last year was a result of inflation -> rate rises -> fear. But the recession didn't happen and the economy still looks strong?
Conclusion is that macro conditions don't foretell a market crash in the immediate future.
THIS IS FOR MY OWN RECORDS ONLY. NOT TRADING ADVICE. EVERYTHING CAN CHANGE VERY QUICKLY.
Jobs market doesn't lie This is Job openings minus continuing jobless claims. It makes the trends clear as day. There's another crash coming this year. There are only 1.7M job seekers and 10.8M open jobs. They will not get filled. They will close and the market will crash.
Macro conditions don't foretell a market crash soonSome points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular event):
1. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) has to start rising before SPX (yellow) drops. Currently UNRATE is declining.
2. The Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) seems to follow the Unemployed Persons Rate (USUP dark blue). USUP just fell so presumably we can expect UNRATE to fall too this month.
3. Continuing Jobless Claims (USCJC red) and Initial Jobless Claims (USIJC light blue) just fell slightly.
4. There are still more job openings than people to fill them (JTSJOL Non-Farm Job Openings minus USCJC US Continuing Jobless Claims)
And just announced today, Non-Farm Payrolls exceeded expectations.
Conclusion is that macro conditions don't foretell a market crash in the immediate future.
Of course that's provided we don't see another slew of bank failures, and that Congress can agree a new debt limit.
US job openings (inverted) against unemployment US job openings (inverted) against unemployment. US job openings (inverted) against unemployment.
The unemployment rate is very likely to riseJob openings are a leading indicator of the unemployment rate. Lower job openings lead to a unemployment rate higher.
How to add lots of comparisons to one chartJust a quick intro to adding comparisons to your chart and changing scales. Right-click on the scales on the right to access their settings menus.
The Jobs MarketSee how working age population leveled off ~200M and job openings up top sky rocketed. Boomers retired and died form Covid. It's not gonna recover any time soon. Population is gonna shrink along with tax receipts. Meanwhile spending will only increase. The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve have been calling it an "Unsustainable Fiscal Path" since 2018 at least. It's even the title of the Treasury's annual report. www.fiscal.treasury.gov
Only 1.7M claiming unemployment and seeking jobs for 10.8M job openings.... another 4M working gig jobs and day-trading, not interested in the full-time job market. It's a seller's market that will continue to drive wages and inflation up until the market breaks and causes a massive recession/depression. We're not gonna grow an extra 5M-9M qualified, highly experienced workers over the course of a year or 5. Those job openings are gonna close because the businesses are not doing well.
Seems everyone in the US that wants a job gets a job As long as this is the case, inflation will stick.
Crash Incoming 10? Be careful with data manipulation (regarding the recent job report), check the "Job Openings: Total Nonfarm" (blue Line) and its relation with the previous big crashes (S&P500; yellow line).
Check also the "Hires: Total Nonfarm" data: www.tradingview.com
Also watch this video: www.youtube.com
I hope that the markets recover soon, nevertheless, calculate very well the risk and the possibility of a major crash.
