Are we going to see 4.5-5%?Do you also think we will really visit 4.5-5% in the next few months? Also watch for the H&S pattern...
MORTGAGE30US trade ideas
Mortgage rates finally breaking support to the downsideMortgage rates finally breaking support to the downside
We should see the 30 year in the 5-6% range in 2025
Mortgage Rates Peaked?Mortgage rates are looking as if they are about to get another drop, on dally chart.
Daily not seen here. Please see profile for more information.
The monthly chart looks like a Head & Shoulder pattern. Interesting. Could we be seeing a huge drop in #interestrates soon?
Must keep an👀on this!
Mortgage Rates have fallen & at major supportGood Morning!
It certainly makes sense for #mortgagerates to follow the bond counterparts & go lower
The monthly chart shows the RSI weakening as it chugged higher.
LONG term, the 3rd chart, we see that rates overcame a STRONG RESISTANCE area & long downtrend, white line. We will soon see if it'll hold that new support, white line.
#RealEstate #InterestRate
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Moving Higher 9% (1M)30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Monthly
Well I guess I'm glad my mother-in-law's basement isn't a total dungeon.. What's sunlight? I'm familiar with grass because that's eye level when I'm looking out our window. Big brother JP, the head of the Fed, says rates aren't going anywhere any time soon, and we've all heard the fear mongering of 8% mortgages coming. Why would anyone want a house when you can load up on lumber and build a tiny home on your in-laws side lot? Life hack; build one in your parents backyard and you have a vacation home. Well lets all hold hands because the mongerers might be on to something.
Chart / RSI / Momentum
Rates previously pierced an important level of resistance (Red Solid) back in October and topped out just north of seven percent. Fast forward ten months and we're back retesting the same level, but this time we have a golden cross (Highlighted); a first on this chart. The RSI has also broken back above 70 level, indicating the strength of the trend to continue, and invalidating the previous bearish divergence (Teal Solid). After breaking past a previous level of significant resistance, Momentum has broken past it's previous peak (Teal Dotted) and continued it's trend higher; another indication of a strong trend.
What Seems Legit?
30-Year rates crackin' nine percent because everything is signaling us higher.
Chart Key
Red Solid = Important Level of Resistance / Support
Teal Solid = Divergences
Teal Dotted = Momentum Level of Resistance
Green Box = Resistance / Target Area
Highlighter = Golden Cross / RSI 70 Level Break High
US Mortgage Rate v Fed Funds RateSome slight research into the relation between US 30Y Mortgage and Fed Funds rate
Tim's Guess for Mortgage Rates for 2023I thought I would publish this "guess" for the sheer entertainment value to show the dramatic increase in mortgage rates and to put in perspective the damage that has likely been done to the purchasing power of home buyers.
The Fed has engineered an attempt to shut down an excessive spending to cool the economy down and we are all waiting for reverberations to indicate that they have been successful.
M2 money supply, which I will add on a follow-on chart, is declining at a sharp rate which is indicative of recession ahead. I believe this M2 money supply contraction is a sign that mortgage rates will fall and here is a "guess" just to put a guess out there.
There is 1 datapoint per week for this series and you can see the box that represents a week as shown with a gray box around the blue line.
I added the 2008 contraction for reference.
Let's see what happens.
I hope this is wrong because it will mean that the economy is falling sharply, but also it would imply that the Fed believes it will have conquered inflation.
Tim West
April 26, 2023 9:54AM
MORTGAGE RATES VS FED RATE and 10 YRComparison of the mortgage, fed and 10 yr rates to determine correlation.
Mortgage rates follow Fed funds rate There was a question about the correlation of Fed rate to mortgage rates. This chart should make it clear.
Is it the right time buy a house? Since Fed's tapering began in the end of 2021, mortgage figures have been in a mark up phase. There is still no indication of a correction. As a result of it, housing prices may not find support for new high levels. Monthly price changes in the negative territory are supporting this idea in the last months.
However, the year over year housing price changes are still providing more room for increase. So, the price conditions may stay elevated in 2023 but the momentum is clearly losing steam.
Briefly if you buy a house now, you will possibly feel right for some time but there can be a phase of price correction in 2023 and 2024. Moreover, with softening inflation rates in the coming period, the housing market prices in real terms may be better than today.
ROAD MAP FOR WHAT IS AHEAD DATA 120 YRS I am posting so you get the clear picture of what is ahead and just started . remember I stated HOPE well she is a girl in the lifeboat who just used the last of the fresh drinking water to wash her hair !! I stand by my work and DATA to back it up all 120 years of it !!!!
The Fed Conundrum and the Housing Market CollapseThe Fed money tightening policies are using interest-rates as a lever to fix a balance sheet problem.
Higher rates feed right back into the CPI, initiating the doom loop.
After the financial crisis of 2008, The Fed employed a policy action to reduce the federal funds rate to a range of 0-0.25% for seven-(7) years, during which time the CPI fell.
Post-pandemic (COVID), the CPI is 97% correlated to the Fed balance sheet.
Looking historically, in 1980's, the Fed Rate was ~19% (real rate was 8%). Compared to today, the Fed Rate is under 3% and Real Fed Rate is at -6%.
Folks already crying about a 3% Fed Rate.
A colossal policy error in the making, or is everything going "according to plan"?
Debt * Growing interest ratesHow long can they play this game?
The Debt*Rates lines is just for visualization purposes, not real data
Crash Incoming 4?I would like to give credit to the TradingView user 'jscheurichiv', who suggest me to add the US30Y mortgage rate to this serie of ideas titled "Crash Incoming". As in the previous 3 ideas, it seems to be a relation between the previous big 3 crashes with a strong line of resistance (in red in the chart). Should we assume that the recent 15% correction was that 'big crash'?
30 Year Mortgage - Pffffffffffffft.Homies and the like are due for a correction of extraordinary measures.
Count on it.
Plan for it.
Move the hell out of the way of it.
Or Don't.
Housing won't hold on much longer prior to the downdraft.
It rolled over in Mid April but did not show until May.
Keep an eye on Delinquency RateNew stimmy checks on the way!
With the mortgage rates rising and the inflation rising, the disponal rent declining, it's about time that we see the delinquency rates climb. That's when they'll have to activate the brrr again
Get ready for the next BRRRRR!!!- 30y mortgage interest rate breaking a 40yo trend.
- MBB down while being used by big players as collateral.
- DXY breaking a 40yo trend (not in the chart) can cause bond defaults around the world.
- Fed has only started raising rates.
* If MBB keeps going down, might see some marge call and flash crashes in the market.
* If MORTGAGE30 keeps going up, will increase the mortgage default, having 2008 back at it. (DRSFRMACBS)
* If bond defaults start around the globe (Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Egypt, Kenia), DXY will keep going up, making the US exports dump (12% GDP)
+ To avoid foreign bond defaults, Fed can make currency swaps with other central banks, to avoid pumping the DXY.
+ To avoid margin calls and mortgage defaults, Fed can slow down the rate hikes.
+ To avoid the inflation hitting people's pocket, they might re-launch covid stimmies for "food and gas".
US 30Y MORTGAGE RATEUsing current US 30Y Mortgage Rate and applying projected interest rates rises we can see what the fed is doing in the future
Mortgage Rates Explode Higher at Second Fastest Rate in HistoryThe monthly chart for US 30-year mortgage rates is exploding higher at a rate not seen since the 1970s. This chart shows that monthly rates are following the 3rd standard deviation higher, which is an extremely rare rate of increase.
The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is shown at the bottom of this chart. The CCI is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis primarily to identify overbought and oversold levels by measuring an instrument's variations away from its statistical mean. It is currently at the second highest level ever (on the monthly chart), second only to the 1973 Oil Crisis. That crisis caused a bear market between January 1973 and December 1974 that affected all the major stock markets in the world. It was one of the worst stock market downturns since the Great Depression. The stock market lost 45% of its value during this time.
How confident are you that the Federal Reserve will be successful at engineering a soft landing? How do you define a 'soft landing'?
US30Y mortgage + Average price of (new) houses soldOpen for discussion. Wonder what new data of ASPUS and ASPNHSUS will bring.
30Y Fixed Mortgage Rates (US Avg.) vs 30Y Treasury RateTop section is average 30-year fixed mortgage rates minus US 30Y treasury, and the bottom is them separated. Average US mortgage rates (blue) started to move ahead of treasury rate and expect 30Y treasury to move above 3% this year
Why Covid Saved the EconomyShowing how upward pressure in yields causes tightening in liquidity causing deflationary pressures and how covid perfectly intervened in the near crash of 2020.
