US100 TRADING SETUP Weekly Chart Analysis:
Key Price Levels:
Current price: 20,095, hovering near the 20 SMA at 19,609, acting as immediate dynamic support.
Volume Profile Point of Control (POC) sits at 18,403, previously serving as support during significant pullbacks.
Price trading within the Bollinger Bands, indicating possible consolidation or slight correction before a stronger move.
Price Condition:
The weekly chart remains in a strong uptrend, with price holding above key moving averages (50, 100, and 200 SMAs).
Recent candlesticks show indecision as price approaches resistance at 20,400.
Volume Profile highlights an HVN around 19,700, reinforcing support at that level.
RSI:
RSI at 59, near neutral, with a slight downward slope, indicating weakening bullish momentum without overbought signals.
MACD:
MACD remains positive but shows a slight downward cross, signaling potential short-term correction or slowdown in the uptrend.
ADX:
ADX at 13.36 reflects weak trend strength, suggesting a consolidation phase. A stronger ADX reading is needed for a renewed upward move.
Daily Chart Analysis:
Key Price Levels:
Immediate support at 20,111 (20 SMA) and further support at 19,695 (50 SMA), with a high volume node around 19,582 suggesting strong support.
Resistance at 20,513, aligning with previous highs.
Price Condition:
Recent price action shows a pullback from highs, with tightening Bollinger Bands, potentially indicating an upcoming breakout.
Supertrend has switched to a sell signal, warranting caution for bullish positions.
RSI:
RSI at 52.95, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, with weaker momentum after declining from recent highs.
MACD:
Daily MACD has crossed downward, with both the signal and MACD lines below zero, signaling increasing bearish momentum.
MFI:
MFI at 72.82 indicates strong capital inflow but is approaching overbought levels. Watch for a sharp correction if MFI turns down.
Chaikin Oscillator:
Chaikin Oscillator remains flat, showing no significant accumulation or distribution. Neutral signal for now.
ADX:
ADX at 24.93 suggests moderate trend strength. The market is likely to pick a more decisive direction soon.
Summary of Setup:
Weekly Chart: Bullish trend remains intact, but momentum is slowing. Key support lies at 19,600 (20 and 50 SMAs), with major support at 18,400. Resistance is at 20,400.
Daily Chart: Short-term weakness is evident, with a potential pullback to the 20 SMA (20,111) or 50 SMA (19,695) offering better long entry points. Volume profile suggests strong support near 19,700. A breakdown below this level could lead to deeper correction toward 18,500.
Trade Idea:
Bullish Scenario: Look for a bounce around 20,100–19,700, supported by the 20/50 SMAs and volume profile. A bullish turn in RSI and MACD could confirm a re-entry for long positions.
Bearish Scenario: A break below 19,700 could signal a deeper correction toward 18,400, with further downside potential if support fails.
