Trading View Idea: Nasdaq 100 SPOT (Technical & Fundamental OutlTechnical Analysis:
Key Levels: Immediate support at 19,664.50 (current price), with critical demand zones near 19,200–19,600. A break below could target 18,268.75 (next major support). Resistance levels begin at 20,400–20,800.
Price Action : Consolidation between SELL (19,664.25) and BUY (19,665.05) zones suggests indecision. Watch for a breakout; holding above demand zones may signal bullish reversal potential.
Fundamental Drivers:
USD Influence: Monitor the US Dollar Index (DXY). A stronger dollar could pressure Nasdaq 100, given its tech-heavy export exposure.
Macro Factors: Fed policy shifts, inflation data, and tech sector earnings will drive sentiment.
Trade Idea:
Bullish Scenario: Hold above 19,664.50 with SL at 19,200, targeting 20,400.
Bearish Trigger: Close below 19,200 opens downside toward 18,268.75.
Call to Action:
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Risk Note: Tight stops advised amid volatility. Align entries with DXY trends and economic catalysts.
NDQ100 trade ideas
Nasdaq 100 key levels to watch as index tries to extend recoveryMarkets have been grappling to establish a definitive bottom in recent sessions, before finally the bulls showed up on Friday to stage a strong rebound from oversold levels. Could the Nasdaq 100 now be poised for a more substantial recovery?
After Friday’s recovery, the big question now is whether we are witnessing the early stages of another rally or just a pause before deeper losses.
Last week, the Nasdaq 100 found some footing in the 19,115-19,240 zone, which coincides with a prior support/resistance region and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the August rally. With the daily RSI firmly entrenched in oversold territory, the index was able to find dip buyers yet again.
The key technical factor to watch today is to see whether the index will show follow-through after Friday’s sharp recovery. A positive close would further erode the bears’ control, while a negative close would suggest there is more selling to come.
A few nearby resistance barriers are in focus now. The first of these hurdles is at 19,735—the low from Friday that was breached in Monday’s sharp sell-off. This level also marks the underside of a broken trendline stretching back to January 2023. A decisive break above this area could open the door to additional upside, targeting psychological resistance at 20,000, followed by the 200-day moving average near 20,340. Should dip buyers regain control, these levels could soon come into focus.
On the flip side, if renewed selling pressure emerges, downside targets include 18,800 and potentially the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near 18,310.
Taking everything into account, my Nasdaq 100 forecast has shifted. Where I previously leaned towards further correction—now largely realised—I am now inclined to anticipate a recovery.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
NASDAQ Most critical 4H MA50 test in 7 months!Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 11 2024 High. The price action since the February 18 2025 High was been the patterns Bearish Leg and like the August 05 2024 bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line, it was done on an oversold (<30.00) 1D RSI.
Now that the price has Double Bottomed and bounced, it came across today with a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) test. 7 months ago it was that test and eventual break-out that initiated Nasdaq's 4-month non-stop rise. Initially once broken, the first target was just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, you can get a confirmed buy signal once the index closes above the 4H MA50 and target 21450 (just below the 0.786 Fib).
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Nas100 Weekly BiasBased on how the market ranges are laid out, I am keen to seehow is it that the market will unfold and what is it that the Institutional Orderflow will rea h out for first. Overall I will be trading on internal ranges and keeping my focus narrowed on that. Anything else outside that will not be of my interest. Due to manual intervention I am expecting because of fundamentals.
OVERALL I would like to see a small run on the upside, going for the Premium arrays and then a deep run for shorts for the purpose of purging sell orders below Lows and then buying them prior long term reversals for longs
stocks vs gold race to recession safety since fed did its last rate cut in december 2024 fomc, Stocks down gold up
this is classic recession trade - dump risk assets and buy safe heaven
gold hit $3000 on recession panic market crash
if stocks bounce, panic may price out
if stocks fall more, panic selling will trigger which could slow the speed of gold rally
this market action and recent gold bars flying to New York from london may be recession panic buying not the tariff inflation hedge
in 2020 market crash everything went down but when recovery started gold proved better than stocks.
Navigating NASDAQ: Positioning for a Possible Bounce Next Week
- Key Insights: The NASDAQ is presently facing bearish sentiment with a
potential downturn in the short term. Investors should be aware of oversold
conditions that could lead to a short-term bounce. Cautious optimism
prevails among experts regarding a possible correction, suggesting
monitoring key resistance levels for signs of reversal.
- Price Targets: For investors considering a long position, price targets should
be strategically set.
- Next week targets: T1: 20,200, T2: 21,000
- Stop levels: S1: 19,000, S2: 18,800
- Recent Performance: The NASDAQ has fallen 12% over the past few weeks,
highlighting a bearish trend. This downturn has been mirrored across major
stock indices, and recent market volatility has exacerbated the decline.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts currently hold a bearish outlook, highlighting a
critical support level near 19,195 amidst broader economic uncertainty
affecting the NASDAQ. However, signs of a potential rally have emerged, with
futures indicating possible movement toward 20,500.
- News Impact: The downturn includes NASDAQ's worst day since 2022, which has
heavily influenced market sentiment. Analysts are monitoring the Nasdaq 100
with plans for possible expansion into the Russell 2000 and S&P 500,
targeting recovery opportunities amidst volatility.
While the NASDAQ is under pressure, the potential for a short-term recovery
remains plausible. Investors should anticipate volatility, making it crucial to
watch key price levels and resistance points for potential market movements next
week.
NAS100 - Stock Market Enters Downtrend?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq. A break of the channel ceiling will also continue the short-term upward trend in Nasdaq.
According to EPFR data reported by Bank of America, investors withdrew $2.8 billion from equity funds last week, marking the largest outflow of the year so far. Meanwhile, U.S. government bonds saw an inflow of $6.4 billion, the biggest weekly increase since August.
Scott Basnett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, stated in an interview that there are no guarantees to prevent an economic recession. He welcomed the decline in stock markets, viewing it as a sign of a healthy market. Analysts believe this shift in tone—unusual for a Treasury Secretary who typically reassures economic strength—suggests an effort to prepare the public for a possible recession.
According to data from the Polymarket betting platform, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is currently estimated at 41%. Reuters reports that American households are increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook. However, the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to respond aggressively to a weakening economy, given growing concerns that the Trump administration’s trade policies could further fuel inflation.
These concerns were reflected in financial markets on Friday, as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed a decline in consumer confidence for March. Additionally, consumers now expect inflation to reach 3.9% over the next five years, the highest level in more than 30 years.
In an interview with Breitbart, Basnett emphasized the need to remain vigilant against persistent Biden-era inflation and expressed support for deregulation to lower costs. He also stressed that while tackling inflation, the government must also address affordability concerns. Additionally, he backed interest rate cuts to help reduce housing costs and auto loan payments.
This week will be packed with major economic events, creating a high-risk environment for precious metals traders amid ongoing geopolitical developments during Trump’s second term.
Central banks are back in the spotlight, as several key monetary institutions are set to announce their policy decisions in the coming days:
• Tuesday: Bank of Japan
• Wednesday: Federal Reserve
• Thursday: Swiss National Bank & Bank of England
Furthermore, a series of macroeconomic data releases could influence market sentiment, including:
• Monday: Retail sales & Empire State Manufacturing Index
• Tuesday: Housing starts & building permits
• Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, existing home sales & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting. Market participants will closely watch the Fed’s updated economic projections and Jerome Powell’s press conference for insights into future monetary policy.
According to a Bloomberg survey, economists anticipate two rate cuts by the Fed this year, likely starting in September. However, despite declining stock indices and rising recession concerns, Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance, avoiding any rushed rate cuts.
While consumer and business confidence has weakened, the Federal Reserve has limited flexibility to lower rates due to persistently high inflation indicators.
going long(buying) on US100 US100 (Nasdaq 100) Analysis – Daily & 4H Timeframe
Key Demand Zone: 17,679.0, where buyers are likely to step in.
Liquidity Sweep: Occurred at 17,676.7, indicating possible stop-loss hunting before a reversal.
Expectation: Price is likely to revisit the demand zone and reverse if buyers show strength.
Trade Plan
Entry Strategy: Wait for bullish confirmation (e.g., rejection wicks, bullish engulfing, or a break of structure on lower timeframes).
Stop-Loss: Placed below 17,676.7 to avoid further liquidity grabs.
Take-Profit Target: Next supply zone or resistance level based on structure.
Risk Management: Consider scaling in with partial entries instead of going all in at once.