This is in troubleDidn't do a full analysis on this, but at a glance easy to see that this is at risk of getting slammed.
NIKKEI225 trade ideas
Bank of Japan sitting on the fence on easy policy exitCentral banks packed quite a punch last week. Unlike the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that raised policy rates by 25Bps, as was widely anticipated, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on July 28 unexpectedly decided to tweak the Yield Curve Control (YCC) band.
The BOJ begins its withdrawal from YCC
It will now allow some deviation above the long-term rate cap of 0.5% and has raised the rate for its 10yr Japanese Government Bond (JGB) fixed-rate purchase operations to 1%. They are effectively doubling their YCC band as it has outlived its purpose over the last seven years. This is despite Governor Kazuo Ueda stressing the BOJs patience a week prior to the meeting leading to 82% of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting no change. There is a strong likelihood the decision was made because the market was least expecting it, similar to the last YCC policy tweak made in December 2022. As it helps avoid the inevitable speculation about the impact of the change on the JGB curve thereby forcing the BOJ to step up its interventions.
It’s hard to determine whether the new YCC with greater flexibility and nimble responses in its purchase schedule will achieve the BOJs goal of sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% inflation target. Longer dated JGB yields are likely to stay under upward pressure until clearer signs emerge that Japanese inflation and wage pressure are easing again.
Core inflation at highest level since 1982
The deflationary headwinds confronting Japan have been around for decades. Signs of change have been seen in firms’ wage- and price-setting behaviour, and inflation expectations have shown some upward movements again (as seen in the chart above).
Spring in Japan is the season for shunto, the annual wage negotiations between company management and unions. This year some firms have already announced significant wage hikes in response to a tightening labour market and rising inflation. May wages rose by 2.9%1. However, a large part of the increase was tied to bonuses. Real wages fell by less but continued to decline by 0.9%2. Japanese headline inflation stayed at 3.2% year on year in July for three consecutive months3. However, core inflation excluding fresh food and energy, reaccelerated to 4.2%, marking the highest level since April 1982.
Looking ahead, headline inflation will likely slow owing to falling global commodity prices and base effects but core inflation will likely remain higher owing to structural change in the labour market.
BOJ struck a dovish tone with below target inflation forecasts
The BOJ’s inflation forecasts for the fiscal years ahead are expected to slow further. The BoJ lowered its (median) forecast for FY2024 to +1.9%4 and left its FY2025 projection unchanged at +1.6%3, in effect justifying ongoing easing from the Bank of Japan. BoJ Governor Ueda mentioned at the press conference that there is still some distance to foresee 2% price stability target in a stable and sustainable manner given our inflation outlook for FY2024 and FY2025. This echoes a dovish narrative on the new YCC regime and a continued communication that the BOJ intends to in effect ease policy by still increasing the monetary base via fixed operations.
More volatility beckons for risk assets
The initial response to the BOJs surprise decision was a sharp rise in Japanese bond yields. Japan’s benchmark bond yields surged, extending gains above the central bank’s previous 0.5% cap. The yen whipsawed, falling more than 1% before reversing course and rallying to trade about the same amount higher.
On Monday 31st July, the BOJ sprung another surprise announcement (2 days post the BOJ meeting) of an unscheduled bond-purchase operation to stem the rise in yields5. The BOJ intends to purchase ¥300Bn of five-to-10-year notes at market yields. This serves as an important reminder that the flexibility is intertwined with opaqueness, as the BOJ can intervene at any time (between 0.5% to 1%) which will continue to stoke volatility across risk assets. The BOJ has positioned the YCC as enhancing sustainability of its current accommodative policy. With Japan’s monetary environment likely to be kept relatively loose, the yen is likely to trade in a volatile range for the remainder of 2023.
Sources
1 Bloomberg as of 31 May 2023
2 Bloomberg 31 May 2023
3 Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication as of 20 July 2023
4 Bank of Japan as of 28 July 2023
5 Bloomberg as of 31 July 2023
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Nikkei to stem dip?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 32105 (stop at 31905)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 32605 and 32705
Resistance: 34015 / 35000 / 36110
Support: 32030 / 30800 / 29810
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Weekly Technical Analysis 31/07/2023Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
US TECH (1 day)
US Tech bulls failed to reclaim 16k, but remaining above 15375 keeps the chances of a takeover high. Soaring higher will expose 16250, while a slide might open up 15k.
GERMANY 40 (4 hours)
The German index spiked to 16500 following the completion of a flag pattern at 15500, opening the door to 17k, with interim resistances at the round levels. Losing 16250 might see the index decline towards 16k.
JAPAN 225 (4 hours)
While Japan 225’s prices remain under the 34k handle, the potential completion of a pennant at 32k keeps chances of a breakout towards 35k relatively high. This prerequisites a retest at the peak and bulls recapturing 33730. Sliding under 32500 might see the index drop further.
GOLD (4 hours)
Gold’s price action suggests an inverse-and-shoulders pattern might have already been completed by $1955/oz, thus inspiring bets above $2k and potentially towards $2070 if $2045 gives in. $1955/oz must hold for further bullish PA, with prices easing more, opening up $1935.
EUR/GBP (4 hours)
The EUR/GBP pair might be in a broadening triangle pattern, pending rejection at the bottom trendline under 0.85. If bulls lose 0.8550 and the low of 0.8516, the chances of seeing the pattern complete will rise. Conversely, advancing past 0.88 could inspire bullish bets, paving the way towards 0.8630.
USD/CAD (4 hours)
The swing reversal at $1.3120 might be the bottom of a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, with the current PA targeting the neckline shy of $1.34. Without reclaiming $1.33, bears might reverse bets, with a slide under $1.32 paving the way to $1.31, should the shoulder low gives in.
GBP/JPY (4 hour)
GBP/JPY appears in a breakout mode following the completion of a flag at 176.40, clearing the path towards 189.40 in the event of a 184.00 takeover. 185.00 and 186.00 can act as resistance levels on the way up, whereas a decline towards 180.00 will also expose 179.50 and the flag low.
JPY 225 - fundamental and technical analysis - we will rise!Fundmental:
Given the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain ultra-low interest rates while adopting a more flexible yield curve control policy, coupled with positive market reactions and the potential for policy normalization, there is a strong possibility that the JPY225 index will rise in the coming days. The move indicates confidence in Japan's economic recovery, leading to increased investor interest in Japanese equities. Additionally, ongoing monetary support and higher inflation expectations could further boost the index. However, investors should remain mindful of market fluctuations and global factors that may impact the performance of the JPY225 index.
Thechincal
We are in side growing trades testing again 33050-33200 level again, probably will not enough strengh so it will be time for correction, after break strong bullish movement
Buy on dip at 50DMA in Nikkei Japanese index Nikkei 225 (NI225) is in a nice bull run since Uncle Warren loaded up on the cheap Japanese equities.
The index made a top at 33770 and has been consolidating since then for the last few weeks. Recently the index made a triple bounce at the 50 day simple moving average with the last push happening on the day of the BoJ MPC meeting decision.
The price action on the index is nicely bullish and seems to be heading toward previous highs of 33770.
Nikkei bulls checkThis does look like a possible retracement but the bulls might be in this one if Russia doesn't surprise us with some impact news today. If no up move comes with higher volatility I might revise this for an exit in case this is not a reversal of the down momentum.
Nikkei in a bullish channelNIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 32535 (stop at 32295)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Previous resistance level of 33068 broken.
A lower correction is expected.
Short term bias is mildly bullish.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 32770, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 33135 and 33285
Resistance: 34015 / 35000 / 36110
Support: 32030 / 30800 / 29810
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
#JPN225Awaiting further guidance after the fourth wave correction, pending the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision.
SPY - NIKKEI225 - We're In The Great Depression + INCOME DATA
Problem with monetary fiscal policy and debasement? your markets start to hyperinflation especially when you try to patch previous bubbles *cough* QT *cough* BTFP *cough*
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
The average net yearly income of Americans during 1930 was $4,887.01
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 8.7%
AFTER TAX - $4,788
$4,788 in 1930 is worth $87,476.76 today
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
The average net yearly income of Americans during 1933 was $4,218.40
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 24.9%
AFTER TAX - $4,045
$4,045 in 1933 is worth $94,935.84 today
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
The average net yearly income of Americans during 2023 $74,738.
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 3.6%
AFTER TAX - $57,237
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
CONCLUSION - The average American is 65.83% poorer than the average American during the great depression. Debasing the currency does not solve poverty and enhances it.
All of this data is from the IRS FRED seems to not provide information prior 1960 now you know why they don't include this on the charts.
Sadly I feel most people don't understand that what is coming is not a "recession" not a "08 RE crash" its going to be a foundational collapse of the entire US debt system / treasuries / stock markets / credit crisis / liquidity crisis.
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
United States Government Debt: % of GDP 2023 = 133%
Japan General Government Gross Debt to GDP 1989 = 65%
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt Q1 2023: 31,458,438 or 31.4 Trillion
I'm personally putting a target for 2026 for the end of the US currency reserve system
The only option here is to either print more 100s of trillions than Weimar Germany
Or force the entire US & Allies onto a new dollar that will combine all G7 currencies.
Hopefully people can understand why there's so much controversial developments on
Russia & BRICS +, this current war is nothing to do with helping another country.
Its because BRICS see's the end of the US system and they are preparing for it.
(sources)
www.irs.gov
www.irs.gov
Tax rates include normal taxes of 1.5 percent on the first $4,000 of taxable income, 3 percent on the next $4,000, and 5 percent on taxable income over $8,000, plus applicable surtaxes. Last law to change rates was the Revenue Act of 1928.
POTENTIAL LONG TRADE SET UP FOR JPN225Asset: JPN225
Analysis: Chart Patterns + Highs & Lows + Impulses & Corrections
Directional Bias: Long
Entry: Continuation Corrective Structure after the breakout.
⚠️ Do your research and apply proper risk management as nothing is guaranteed in forex trading. As we have often said, this is a high risk venture and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade Responsibly!
#TheTradingAmbience 🙏🏽🙇🏽♀️
breakoutintended towards breakout, jpy will be moving upwards....
note. this is just for analysis purpose not to reccomand anyone to trade..
Flat Pattern!!Wave 5Hello everyone,
I hope your week is going well and that you're experiencing success with your business deals.
I've analyzed some data using the Elliott wave principle and wanted to share two ideas with you.
You can find all the relevant information in the chart attached.
I appreciate your ongoing support and wish you all the best!
spot on last waves up of Bull markets the chart posted was done over a week back it is and will unfold to cause a major bubble top
JP225USDpremature buys on this cash index, nice to trade with low capital and big leverage for more meaningful return also a not too volatile. lets see the play
Bank of JAPAN ready to print $$$$the chart posted is the japan 225 index and is now labeled We are ending a wave 4 of 3 or wave 4 of C now it is ready to rip
ANALYSIS ON W1Nikkei is at a cycle point where it risks a big fall if the cycle structure is maintained
It will be the third repetition of this construction in Nikkei
In the previous two the cycle followed similar structure
The fractal is the 3 year pattern in DJIA from May 1970 to January 1973
The time elapsed for the completion of the structure has been similar so far too
Fractal in DJIA
Current in Nikkei
Trade safe, goodluck
Nikkei- Break of Double top's necklineLike most of the global indices, Nikkei also had a good run this year.
However, since mid-June, the index started to lose its power and has drawn a Doube Top pattern on our charts.
The start of the week brought the break under the neck-line support of the pattern and Nikkei could continue to the downside.
Levels to watch for bears are 31100 old congestion which also coincides with the measured target of the double top and the important 30k figure.
I'm bearish as long as the price is under 33200
NikkieExpect near term to short term correction to retracement as shown on the chart.
Critical support at current level even as trend line breakdown has been witnessed.
Negative divergence on RSI
Macd is below it average as shown via macd histogram.
As long as 34k is not crossed on closing use rise to book profit and can be used for distribution.
Expect retracement as shown in chart to be tested
Nikkei to continue in a selloff?NIK225 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell a break of 32298 (stop at 32548)
Selling pressure dominated price action yesterday and we expect this to continue today.
Previous support located at 32303.
With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited.
Further downside is expected, however, due to the strong support below we prefer to sell a break of 32303, which will confirm the bearish sentiment.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 31698 and 31598
Resistance: 33205 / 34015 / 35090
Support: 31410 / 30300 / 29235
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Nikkei bearish divergence on RSIAlso appears to be breaking a uptrend as part of a rising wedge TVC:NI225
JPN225 - CTS Trade & Using the CORRECT Cypher Pattern ToolWe have a nice little bearish CTS (Combined Technical Score) setup happening here on the JPN225 with price action currently trading at a previous level of structure resistance.
On the higher timeframe we already have a double top, with the RSI overbought & showing bearish divergence & on the lower timeframe we have the same setting up with the added bonus of an at market bearish Cypher pattern.
*We also take a look at why it's important to use the CORRECT pattern drawing tool when looking at Cypher patterns.
Please leave your questions & comments below & remember to show that rocket some LOVE!
Your Trading Coach - Akil
