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NPPTTL trade ideas

Are we in a recession? (spoiler: no)I wanted to aggregate some of the things that the NBER considers when determining a recession, and provide three links that people can follow to monitor for recession likelihood. The NBER uses lagging data so they officially declare recessions after they've been under way for some time and sometimes at their conclusion. However, we can monitor the data points that they consider to view whether they are expanding or contracting. I've included: Non-farm payrolls Consumption Household employment Real GDP Gross industrial output Real personal income less transfer payments You can see that, despite the rightening monetary conditions, real economic variables continue to expand. I've also included the Sahm Recession indicator by WeatherUmrella. This uses a 0.5 increase in unemployment over 3 months to indicate that a recession is underway. www.tradingview.com Links: I'll keep this chart public (hopefully it's helpful). www.tradingview.com Sahm Rule official at the Federal Reserve fred.stlouisfed.org Smoothed probability of recession fred.stlouisfed.org The last uses the same criteria as the NBER, using some matrix algebra to use what's available to extrapolate a real time determination. It's been very accurate.
FRED:NPPTTL
by Ben_1148x2
Non- Farm Payroll Front RunAAII Bullish sentiment Indicator @ All Time Highs. ROC irrational optimism abounds - while sentiment remains extremely negative @ 38%. Housing Prices remain in an extraordinary Bubble with the 10yr approaching 1% from YCC. The ES SPY SPX Trend SLOPE is increasing. USDX appears to be supportive ~ 92. A weak US DX will shove assets higher within the Negative DX Trend. A clear structure of the resumption of Down Trend as the Long DX Trade which Specs chased is failing. FX Pairs have clear bias to Higher DX, outsized, but not extreme. Technical Structures across FX remain DX Bearish. Yields are telling us Equities would move higher and yet the expectations for the move higher was not met. _________________________________________________________________ *** Divergences continue to expand to Negative Extremes. NFP will be front run, Claims have been declining. August 6th may provide the Catalyst for Bulls, then again Delta is beginning to show large gains in New Cases among the Vaccinated. The Market remains extreme, Caution warranted. We remain Neutral into NFP.
FRED:NPPTTL
by HK_L61
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