2 yr 10 yr spread watch this its going to come in The chart posted is the 10/2 spread that everyone is watching >it bottomed see golden ratio
T10Y2Y trade ideas
The Chart The FRED Does Not Want You To See - All Wrong.
Can't help but notice the incredible amount of people calling for recession this or no recession both on Bloomberg and CNBC using the 10Y -2Y without adjusting it for the money debasement?
Could not be more clearer almost all of these "market experts" still living in pre 2008 with their degrees are going to be absolutely obliterated buy the CPI and eventual return of inflation.
ADJ the 10Y -2Y to the M2 that includes the debasement of bail outs you can see the US bonds are in a spiral down and down. Why?
You can't get Japan to YCC bond yields with printed currency to prop up the market this leaves smart investors selling the bonds and the yield goes up.
The FRED on purpose has tried to create disinflation causing mass money to flow back into the US bonds to prop down the yield as the "experts want more return on inflation.
Sorry Japan is having an inflation crisis and they need to sell the US bonds, and China is selling too.
Now you get a failing US bond market that could be in a bear market on nominal value to inflation for the next decade.
"experts" purchasing high yielding bonds that cannot outrun US CPI yes you're going to lose.
"experts" longing instruments like TLT expecting mass cash to flow back into US bonds you're praying and hoping the FRED starts YCC or Japan sends their economy down the drain to save the US bond system.
We've been in a recession since 2009, reason these "experts" on tv don't notice this is due to them owning assets that benefit from monetary policy and fiscal debasement.
Bill Ackman has recently figured this out too taking a defensive position on this. Some are shorting bonds, some allocating to Gold, some allocating to Bitcoin.
Is Bill Ackman insane? or has he simply figured the FRED used fake data to try get the market to flee from markets causing deflation.
www.investing.com
2023 - We can't have a recession if we've been in one since 08.
Recession Timeframe Horizon Macro Monday (2)
Potential Recession Time Horizon
Below you will find a breakdown of how many months pass before a confirmed Economic Recession (shaded grey areas) after the yield curves first definitive turn back up towards the 0% level:
1) 13 Months (Dec 1978 – Jan 1980)
2) 9 Months (Nov 1980 – July 1981)
3) 16 Months (Mar 1989 – Jul 1990)
4) 12 Months (Mar 2000 – Mar 2001)
5) 22 Months (Feb 2006 – Dec 2007)
6) 6 Months (Aug 2019 – Mar 2020)
7) 4 Months so far (Mar 2023 - ????)
Average Time frame: 13 months (reasonable time horizon would be 6 – 18 months).
I consider the first definitive turn up towards the 0% level as no. 7 on the chart (March 2023). Since this date we have rolled over below the -1% level (see additional chart in comments). March 2023 appears similar to the bounce in Dec 1978 (No. 1 in the chart), it also rolled over to the lower sub -1% level. If we assumed a similar 13 month timeframe to recession commencement as in Dec 1978 of 13 months, which also aligns with our 13 month average above, we would be looking at April 2024 for a recession to commence. Interestingly 1978 - 1980 was a similar peak inflationary period known as the Great Inflation, a defining macroeconomic period of high inflation.
You might be wondering, has a recession ever occurred in the month of April before? I personally thought this was a strange month but it has occurred in the past.
In April 1960 a recession commenced and lasted 10 months to February 1961. The 1960 recession was mainly a result of an over-tight monetary policy whereby the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 1.75% in mid-1958 to 4% by the end of 1959 and maintained them at that level until June 1960. The Federal Reserves motive for raising interest rates and maintaining them was fear of high inflation (as in early 1951 inflation soared to +9.5%). Is it just me or is this all starting to sound a little too familiar?
If we wanted to cater for all time scenarios in the chart and noted above (no. 1 - 6) we could argue that the start of a recession is possible at the earliest within 6 months (Sept 2023) and at the latest 22 months (Jan 2025). Also, the month of April 2024 has some eerie similarities to two prior recessions, the 1978 and 1960 Recessions.
Lucky 13
Since World War 2 bear markets have on average taken about 13 months to reach their bottom and a further 26 months to recover their losses. Our average time before a recession would start is 13 months. It’s worth remembering that it could take an additional 13 months before a bottom is established and then 2 years or 26 months (2 x 13) of price action below the pre-recession price highs. Over 3 years is a long time to wait to recover losses. It would be pertinent to start deleveraging or increasing your hedge from the 6 month mark (Sept 2023 in this case) as subsequently the likelihood of a 3 year period below the Sept 2023 price levels increase as each month passes. For reference the S&P 500 index has fallen an average of 33% during bear markets over the avg. timeframe of 13 months to the bottom.
I actually find it very hard to accept that a recession is possible in the near term (within 6 - 12 months) and I would in fact argue against it, however I cannot explain away the data in the chart which speaks for itself and warrants at least some consideration & caution. Nothing is a guarantee and maybe this time it will be different, especially factoring in the amount of unprecedented liquidity added to the market in recent years, sticky inflation and financial supports provided to systemically important banks.
All the chart really indicates is a probable window for a recession to start some time between Sept 2023 – Jan 2025 and no guarantees.
The rule of 13 is worth remembering, simply from a timing perspective (before and during a recession) as it may help your timing. Based on two similar periods in history, the 1978 and 1960 recessions suggest the month of April 2024 may be a key date. Again, no guarantees.
It is also worth noting that for the last six recessions, on average, the announcement of when a recession started was up to 8 months after the fact…meaning we will have no direct indication when a recession starts, however the un-inversion of the yield curve (back above the 0% level) and a rise in unemployment will be the early tells, so these are worth paying attention too. We will keep you posted on any sudden changes in these metrics.
I hope the chart is helpful, provides one perspective of which there are many, and can help time and frame the situation we currently find ourselves in. NO GAURANTEES, just probable timeframes that may be worth paying attention too.
PUKA
List of Recessions:
1. COVID-19 Recession (February - April 2020)
2. The Great Recession of 2008 (December 2007 - June 2009)
3. The September 11 Recession (March - November 2001)
4. The Gulf War Recession (July 1990 - March 1991)
5. The Iran/Energy Crisis Recession (July 1981 - November 1982)
6. The Energy Crisis Recession (January - July 1980)
7. The Nixon Recession (December 1969 - November 1970)
8. The “Rolling Adjustment” Recession (April 1960 - February 1961)
9. The Eisenhower Recession (August 1957 - April 1958)
10. The Post-Korean War Recession (July 1953 - May 1954)
Recession Indicator 29/6/23This is a recession indicator, looking at the ten year % minus the two year %
is the 2y10y signaling the beginning of the end?Chart is self explanatory are we about to go Kaboom?
10's-2's will be resolved next week. How?Could be 10 yr moves higher and the stock market takes a dive.
T10-2Y Treasury Yield - Monthly ChartI tried to predict Treasury yield cycle using Trent lines.
I would like to see if the treasury yield follow the cycle along the trend lines.
Bond Market Signals Potential Trouble for the Federal ReserveIn recent weeks, the bond market has been sending a strong signal to the Federal Reserve: it may be making a serious mistake. The yield curve, which measures the difference in interest rates between short-term and long-term bonds, is currently more inverted than it has been since the early 1980s.
An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates. This can be a cause for concern because it can indicate that investors are expecting economic growth to slow in the future. When investors expect the economy to slow, they are less likely to lend money for long periods of time, leading to higher interest rates on short-term bonds and lower interest rates on long-term bonds.
The current yield curve inversion has many experts worried. In the past, an inverted yield curve has often been a reliable predictor of a recession. In fact, every recession in the past 50 years has been preceded by an inverted yield curve.
One reason for the current inversion may be the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hikes. The Fed has raised interest rates several times in recent years in an effort to prevent the economy from overheating. However, these rate hikes may have had the unintended consequence of slowing economic growth.
Despite the potential risks, experts believe that the current yield curve inversion may not be as concerning as it seems. They argue that other factors, such as the strong job market and low unemployment rate, suggest that the economy is still in good shape.
In the end, only time will tell if the bond market's concerns are justified. However, the Federal Reserve will need to closely monitor the situation and be prepared to take action if necessary to prevent a potential recession.
2022-10-17 2y10y spreadArgument for being long, statistically, previous recessions bottomed at these levels
Qualitative Fundamental Analysis of US Economy Sep.2022Most important factor for the economy is how GPD behaves. Several economic indicators will be observed, in order to obtain the whole economical situation and GDP growth.
Technical Recession is defined when Real GDP has 2 negative consecutive quarters.
2022,Q1: -1,6 %
2022,Q2: -0,6 %
2022,Q3:
2022,Q4:
Inflation target: 2%
Actual: 8,3 %
Unemployment rate target: 3,7-4%
Actual: 3,7%
GDP Growth target:
Actual:
Yields
From the chart above can be seen that Yield Curve 10-2 is going down and most importantly - the curve is already below zero. Last time, when the curve reached this level was back in 2000 and 1 year later the "The great Recession" happened.
We can also seen that the 10Y Yields and 2Y Yields are going high, which is deflationary for the economy. The 2Y Yields already crossed up 10Y Yields and this means that investors are worried about the future economy situation.
Yield Curve(all Yields) is inverted. This happens if the economy shrink or is going to contract.
Since Jan.2022 the Yields are going high, but the Stock market and GDP are going down. At this moment there is no perspective for changes
Corporate Bonds and Credit Spread
There is a strong correlation between the spread and GDP. Spread go up - GDP contract.
Money Supply M2
M2 is most important measure of money supply and is used as injection and withdraw to control inflation, growth and value of the currency.
From the chart above we can see that in 2020 when there was the Covid crisis, the FED aggressively printed more money to avoid recession. But this time the inflation is too high and they can not print more money. This means that they can not inject money in the economy and it will deflate.
Interest rates (FED Fund Rates)
Last two crisis (2008 and 2020) the FED actually reduced the Interest Rates in order to fight with the recession. This time they could not do it, because the rates were already 0 %. In order to fight with the inflation they will increase the rates and this move will make the economy to shrink more.
ISM PMI, NMI
In Mar. 2021 the indexes peaked and since then they go down. These indexes are leading indicators about GDP growth. Right now they are above 50 level, but when they fall below 50 and then GDP will definitely contract a lot.
Consumer Sentiment Index(UMCSI)
The level of confidence that consumers have about the stability and future prospects can be used to understand the overall trend of the economy.
As we can see there is no confidence about the future prospects - not at all.
From this indicator we can suggest that the economy will shrink.
Building Permits
It seems that the Permits already peaked at dec.2021 and now are going down.
Developers are bearish on the prospects of the future home sales.
This indicator lead us, that GDP will contract.
NFIB Business Optimism Index
It seems that business are not optimistic about the future, so they will not hire people and not make new investments. Very soon the index will fall below 90 level and this will be very strong indication about the economy contraction.
Trade weighted USD Index
Generally the rising index is deflationary for the Cyclical commodities. Which are very good indicator about future Inflation.
Cyclical Commodities
It seems that some commodities like copper, Crude Oil, Lumber, Iron already peaked and started to fall.
The logic here is, when the commodities prices are going down, the inflation should go down too.
CPI/ Core CPI
We know that current inflation is much more then the FED target of 2%.
Increasing the Interest Rates make dollar more attractive for the investors, thats why all USD Indexes are going up, which makes commodities prices to go down.
If we consider all these facts, we can predict that inflation will go down in future in future.
PPI/ Core PPI
It seems that PPI indexes already peaked and now are going down.
Employment Situation Report
The future expectations about economy are negative, this will lead the unemployment to grow, exactly as 2020 or may be more.
Future deflation and unemployment growth will shrink the economy and GDP will go down.
Balance Sheet , Debt, Deficit
In Covid crisis, when GDP went down the FED printed more money, which increased the Balance Sheet and Debt. The big debt brought more deficit for USA.
Higher debt means more pressure to inflate. The only choices are to deflate, default on debt or inflate further.
In 2020 the debt was above 100% and the Government chose to inflate more and avoid recession. The debt rose to around 140%. Levels above 100% are very critical, the debt was never bigger then now.
In this case I believe the Government will chose to deflate and GDP will fall.
SUMMERY
The economy is technically in recession and all economical indicators shows, that the deflation just started and GDP will go down for a while.
Historically the FED just printed more money, inflate more and avoid a long period of GDP contraction or even recession. Right now the inflation is out of control and the hawkish FED already announced, that the priority is to bring the inflation back to normal, by increasing the Interest Rates.
This aggressive move will make GDP to contract further and economy to shrink further.
Indicator --Economy, GDP--Commenter
Yields--contraction--Increasing the IR will move the Yields higher, 2Y Yields will increase rapidly
Credit Spread--contraction--The spread, already started to go high
M2 Money Supply---contraction---It seems that this time will be no injection, but withdraws.
FED Fund Rates---contraction---The FED are very hawkish, that will increase the rates, no matter what.
S&P 500 VIX Index -------------- not observed
ISM PMI/NMI--- contraction---Already peaked. New orders predict PMI will go down further
UMCSI---contraction---It is below 50 level, which is very bearish
Building Permits---contraction---Near the peak level, may be already peaked.
NFIB Business optimism index---contraction---Already reached level 90, below this level it is very bearish.
Trade weighted US Dollar Index---deflation---Rising Dollar Index will deflate the Commodities.
Cyclical Commodities---deflation---For now prices are going down.
CPI/ Core CPI---deflation---It seems that Inflation peaked, Commodities are going down, IR are going up .
PPI---deflation---Same as CPI.
Employment--- deflation---If economy shrink, unemployment will rise, may be to the levels of 2020.
Debt/Deficit/Balance sheet---deflation---Debt is already above the critical level (100%), probably the the Government will deflate this time.
Stock market ---contraction---Stock market is leading indicator for GDP, since Jan.2020 stocks are falling.
10-2 Curve Yield Inversion is foreshadowing recession AMEX:SPY FRED:T10Y2Y Here is my DD on why I think we will officially enter recession early 2023. Current situation is identical to 2000 tech bubble.
Back then 10-2 curve yield inversion dropped to its lowest around Spring-Summer 2000. Then the official recession started Spring 2001. Market didn’t fully bottom until end of 2002/early 2003.
Fast forward to 2022, we’ve just reached the lowest 10-2 curve yield inversion since 2000. Meaning a few months from now we will officially be in recession, either end of 2022 or early 2023. Which I suspect could last until early 2024. Since U.S election is scheduled for Fall 2024, Fed and politicians will have to prop the economy back up so they can use “economy recovering” for voting narratives which is what can trigger the next real bull trend.
Conclusion: curve yield inversion has always been indicative of an upcoming recession, so the real bear market hasn’t even really begun yet. What we recently experience was most likely just a warmup👀
Yield Curve vs SPX We're quickly approaching all time lows on the 10yr-2yr yield inversion chart. However, in the past the rates inverted at the end of the rate hike cycle. This time we inverted from the start of the hikes and aren't even half way to the Fed's goal of 3.5%. So we are in uncharted territory with the bond market.
Note, crashes followed the yield inversion, as rates started falling. The crashes happened anywhere from immediately to 2 years after initial inversion, but 6 months seems to be the median. Does that mean we run up and/or chop sideways until rates come down? Perhaps. however it tells me we're due for another crash when the yield turns positive again.
I'm not sure what to make of the rate hike bear trend line, but we are about to breakout of it, for sure. Perhaps we get more hikes than we bargained for. However, inflation numbers should improve soon with oil & metal prices falling, while food is about to go through harvest season. I anticipate some bull run off that. Inflation relief might be short lived, however.
Pre-recession PumpAccording to this chart, true recession will come next year, not this year. Before the big dump is a big pump.
Economic CausalityYou know why we are here.
I'm a trafficker of information, I know everything I can.
The question is. Do you know why you are here?
We are looking for Bill Hwang.
This is not a reason. This is not a why.
You are here because you were sent here.
You were told to come here and you obeyed.
Ha ha, it is of course the way of all things.
You see there is only 1 constant, 1 universal, it is the only real truth.
Causality.
Action. Reaction.... Cause and Effect.
Everything begins with choice.
No. Wrong. Choice is an illusion.
Created between those with power, and those without.
SPY QQQ DJI , Are We heading into a recession? The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fell over 20% since January of this year, and many are questioning whether the recent bull rally is an indication that the market may have bottomed, and if we are now recovering. Even with the fed announcing a 75bps rate hike this week, and a second consecutive quarter with negative GDP report, the market has gained over 6% just this week. Anyone can find a perma bull or perma bear argument and run with it, however I like to use historical data and context to give us an idea of what may possibly occur. So I compared the 10Y-2Y bond yield spread to see what has happened in the past, relative to the S&P500. The conclusion I came away with, is that there has not been a time when the 10Y-2Y bond yield has inverted, without a recession following it. The question is how long did it take for the full blown recession to occur, and that's the challenging part, and there is no way to predict when the actual recession will occur based on history. For example the three recessions that occurred most recently were the .com bubble, the great financial crisis of 2008, and most recently the mini Pandemic recession of 2020. All three times the chart showed clear inversions between the 10Y 2Y bond yield curve. In March of 2000 the spread between the 10Y bond yield and 2Y was -50 at the bottom of the inversion, and it took about 189 days before the stock market crashed. In 2006 the inversion bottomed around feb 2006, and the 10-2y spread was about -20, (which is actually where it stands today), and the stock market did not crash or feel the effects for another 500 days give or take. In 2020 the inversion bottomed around July of 2019 and the spread got as low as -.02, and the market collapsed in March of 2020 (many still question how the bond yields could have predicted the pandemic) nonetheless, this chart has proven to be a great predictor of recessions. So to sum it all up, using just technical analysis (the marco supports this but that another topic for another day), shows that the likelihood of another recession occurring is more likely then not, whether it will occur in a few weeks, months, or even years is the question, so I urge every trader to just keep this in mind its okay to go with the trend and make some money, however just be very cautious with your assets and keep this in mind. Best of Luck to all.
This is NOT financial advice just my personal ideas.
The Yield curve InversionThe Yield curve has inverted a second time this year, signaling the shift away from short term treasuries into longer term treasuries. This has always been the signal going into recession.
2's 10's INVERSION - THE TRUTH😲 2's 10's INVERSIO N😲
A journalist's favourite recession indicator, the “2’s 10’s curve” inverted earlier this month… As the story goes, 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙡𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙖 𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 within 12-24months 😲
👉 But this time… it’s different 😅
Here’s the chart -> (FRED-FRED:T10Y2Y)
To clarify, I’m not saying there won’t be a recession, or NSDQ100 crash, in fact it’s a real possibility. But the 2’s 10’s chart is not a good indicator to rely on.
WHAT IS THE YEILD CURVE ⤴
The yield curve is just a curve plotted on a graph of the interest paid on debt.
The X-axis being the duration of the debt (e.g. a 2yr loan and 3yr loan etc.) and the Y-axis being the interest (e.g. 1%, 2%, 3% etc.).
2️⃣ - 2’s is shorthand for the 2 year US Treasury Note (a 2 year loan to the US gov.)
🔟 - 10’s is shorthand for the 10 year US Treasury Note.
🤔 HOW STRANGE
It’s an odd phenomenon that a shorter term loan could pay higher interest than a longer term loan - because why would someone want to lend money for a longer time at a lower interest rate 🤷
But this - otherwise accurate signal for a recession - is no longer credible as a market indicator.
Currently the yield curve is (heavily) distorted, with central banks around the world purchasing their own bonds (treasury notes). On top of that the FED has clearly stated they expect the funding rate to get to about 3% in 2023 - but expects a long term rate of 2.5%. So the FED is indicating intentional inversion.
It’s possible the yield curve could continue flattening or inverting, further fuelling these “recession imminent” articles. It's good to remember a small inversion is not a concern in this case.
There are clear signals of what will trigger a recession, I'll cover those in a future post. (remember to add me to a Watchlist to be notified)
HOW COULD YOU TRADE THIS
You could short the SHY and go long IEF or TLT to take advantage of the curve normalising over time.
In fact, from here, the IEF looks good even without the $SHY short position (saving fees and keeping capital free)
Yield Curve Inversion = Here's The TruthRead this article this morning. It's enlightening, however, let's look at the facts:
medium.com
Premises of the article is that when the 10y interest rate < 2y interest rate (yield inversion) that a recession is immanent.
1. I used FRED data T10Y2Y and Wikipedia for recession dates. I know the definition of recession is controversial, but I chose this source.
en.wikipedia.org
2. The DJIA (orange) is overlaying the white T10Y2Y curve as a reference for the market
Initial Observations:
1. My first observation is that the curve has recently crossed 0 (inverted) so recession must be "immanent". Hmm... Wikipedia
shows us being in a recession since Feb 2020 (again defined by negative GDP growth). So, the author's definition of a recession does not
match Wiki's.
2. I'm going to give the author the benefit of the doubt and use their definition of recession (though not stated). There is a very narrow line shown
in the article just after the yield inversion on 8/26/2019 that represents a very short recession and explains #1.
Assuming the author's start date of the recession is around Feb '20, there are some key concerns.
a. The inversion happened ~ 160 days before the start of the recession. That's a pretty substantial lag.
b. And, it went positive 3 days later.
This means that I'm supposed to believe that an event 160 days ago, that lasted a whole 3 days before completely turning around, predicted a recession?
My Study:
I don't know if you'll be able to scroll all the way back through the data where I lay out all of the Wiki recessions versus when the initial yield curve inversion
occurred. If you can, the just use the chart to form your own opinion. Otherwise here is some tabulated data.
1. Recession >> Jan '80 - Jul '80 (6 months total)
Date of inversion - 17 Aug '78 >> 508 days before the recession (almost 2 years)
DJIA - from 17 Aug '78 to end of recession DJIA ranged ~840 +-4%
*note: The yield curve crossed back above 0 close to the end of the recession so maybe it predicts the end of recessions as well
2. Recession >> July '81 - Nov '82 ( 1 yr and 4 months)
Date of inversion - 10 Sep '80 >> 299 days before recession
DJIA - from 10 Sep '80 to the end of the recession DJIA ranged 920 +- 8%
*note: The yield curve crossed above 0 multiple times during this recession. The second time did mark the end of the recession.
3. Recession >> Jul '90 - Mar '91 (8 months total)
Date of inversion - 13 Dec '88 >> 562 days before recession
DJIA - from 13 Dec '88 to the end of the recession DJIA ranged 2100 +900 -0 (never dropped from the start of the inversion)
*note: The yield curve actually went positive 85d before the start of the recession.
4. Recession >> Mar '01 to Nov '01 (8 months total)
Date of inversion - 27 Jan '00 >> 398 days before recession
DJIA - from 27 Jan '00 to end of recession DJIA ranged 11,000 +300 - 1800
*note: The yield curve actually went positive 66d before the start of the recession.
5. Recession >> Dec '07 to Jun '09 (1 yr and 6 months total)
Date of inversion - 1 Jan '06 >> 671 days before recession
DJIA - from 1 Jan '06 to the end of the recession DJIA ranged 10,800 +3300 -4200 (volatile)
*note: The yield curve actually went positive 185d before the start of the recession.
5. Recession >> Feb '20 to Present (2 yr and 2 months total)
Date of inversion - 7 Aug '19 >> 160 days before recession
DJIA - from 1 Jan '06 to the end of the recession DJIA ranged 10,800 +3300 -4200 (volatile)
*note: The yield curve actually went positive 3d after it went negative.
Summary:
I don't see any validity between the yield curve inverting and an accurate prediction of an immanent recession. The curve shown in the
article lacks depth of analysis. It kind of reminds me why I limit what I read because these broad statements cloud my mind
as a trader. There are macroeconomic drivers causing the yield inversion, however, those macroeconomic drivers are not neatly packaged
into this one magical inversion chart that tells us a recession is immanent. I think its much more likely that you randomly poll people
at your local Walmart and they'll get you just as close. Sorry, my data shows this article is click bait.
On a side note, I was surprised to see that recessions tend to last no more than about 1.5 years - the Great Depression being the only one
greater than 1.5 yrs at 3 yrs 7 months. I was also interested to see, as a trader, that recessions don't mean the market is always down. Each
recession was unique, however, every one seemed to offer long-side trading opportunities.
T10Y2Y Yield curve inversion potential crucial pointWhenever this chart crosses 0 it means the yield curve for the 2 and 10 year bond yields has inverted. Historically a significant economic downturn followed. It's not perfect but nonetheless I wanted to put this out there for feedback.
Thanks
T10Y2Y - 2 and 10 Spread InversionThe FRED:T10Y2Y spread is getting razor thin here. Historically you could have a "false alarm" as seen in 1998. Though I question how much of it is a false alarm, and how much it is a "BE ON THE LOOKOUT". From what can be gathered, this close to inversion is enough to get the binoculars out and look at the horizon, something is coming.
We are sitting at about .08 spread at the moment, with .11 notched yesterday.
