random charts10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-month Treasury Constant Maturity trends as a recession indicator
T10Y3M trade ideas
One Chart to Rule them All ~ 10Y/2Y and 10Y/3M Yield Spreads10Y/2Y and 10Y/3M Yield Spread
One chart to rule them all. I have combined the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread (purple line) and the 10Y/3M Yield Spread (blue line) onto one chart. You can get updated readings on it at anytime on my TradingView page (link in bio above)
I have measured the historic timeframe from un-inversion to recession for both datasets. Un-inversion occurs when the yield spread rises back above the 0 level.
Given the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread has just un-inverted (moved above 0), I thought this a worthy exercise. The findings are interesting and useful.
Main Findings / Trigger Levels
The findings are based on the last 4 recessions (this as far back as the 10Y/3M Yield Spread chart will go);
▫️ Before all four recessions both yield spreads un-inverted (only one has to date);
- At present only the 10Y/2Y yield spread has un-inverted (2nd Sept 2024), thus we can watch for the next warning signal which is an un-inversion of the 10Y/3M yield spread. Without both yield spreads un-inverting the probability of recession is reduced.
▫️ The 10Y/2Y typically un-inverts first and the 10Y/3M un-inverts second.
-Historically the delay between the 10Y/2Y and the 10Y/3M un-inversion is between 3 to 10 weeks (23rd Sept – 11th Nov). This is the date window that we can watch for a 10Y/3M un-inversion (based on historic norms).
-If we move outside this window beyond the 18th Nov with no 10Y/3M un-inversion, then we are outside the historic norms and something different is happening. Nonetheless watching for the un-inversion of the 10Y/3M after this date could be consequential.
▫️ On the chart I have used the last four 10Y/2Y yield spread un-inversion timeframes to recession and created a purple area to forecast these from the recent the inversion on the 2nd Sept 2024 forward (Labelled 1 - 4). This creates a nice visual on the
chart. Based on these historic timeframes and subject to the follow up 10Y/3M un-inversion confirming in coming weeks, the potential recession dates are as follows (also marked on chart);
1.28th Oct 2024 (based on 2000 10Y/2Y un-inversion to recession timeframe)
2.03rd Feb 2025 (based on 2020 10Y/2Y un-inversion to recession timeframe)
3.12th May 2025 (based on 2007 10Y/2Y un-inversion to recession timeframe)
4.25th August 2025 (based on 1990 10Y/2Y un-inversion to recession timeframe)
✅ Remember, you can check in on this chart and press play to get updated data at any time by clicking the link in the comments below or by following me on TradingView👍
▫️ I will include a table in the comments which outlines all of the above metrics with dates. I will also share a chart with a zoomed in version of present day so that all the above trigger dates can be more closely monitored.
Finally, it’s important to recognize that these findings and trigger levels are based on the last four recessions. There is no guarantee that a recession will occur or occur within the set trigger levels. What we have is a probabilistic guide based on historic patterns. This time could play out very differently or not play out at all. Regardless, all of the above findings help us gauge the probability of a recession with historic timeframes to watch. It leaves us better armed to make the necessary risk adjustments, particularly if the 10Y/3M yield curve un-inverts.
Price is king, and at present, prices are pressing higher on most relevant market assets. From the above findings and the current positive market price action, it appears we have a little more time before being hauled into a longer-term correction or recession. I lean towards the later dates (2, 3, and 4 above) for this reason. Interestingly, many of my historic charts from months ago and last year suggested Jan/Feb 2025 (also option 2 above) as a very high-risk period. You can view these charts under the above specific chart on TradingView.
This chart is your one-stop shop for checking recession trigger levels based on historic timeframes for both yield spreads. You can update this chart data anytime on my TradingView page with just one click. Be sure to follow me there to access a range of charts that will help you assess the direction of the economy and the market. Thanks again for coming along!
Remember, you can check in on this chart and press play to get updated data at any time by clicking the link in the comments below or by following me on TradingView.
Thanks
PUKA
Lets Make This A Time Capsule of SortsThis is shaping up to be the biggest distrust in long term lending in the United States in history.
As we all know the yield curve is highly inverted and its always a great indicator that short term lending is encouraged more then long. Cant wait to see the short term bag holders that did the minimum down payment HAHAHHAA
Inverted Yield Curve longest inversion to dateUsually when we have an inverted yield curve usually a recession follows.
This has been the longest inversion to date.
Is this time different?
Usually the countdown to a incoming recession is when the inversion un-inverts which means goes back up to zero.
Something to put on the back burner but keep an eye on
Soft Landing?A lot of market participants are falling for the Fed's illusion that a soft landing has been achieved. However, the charts are still warning that a recession is coming.
The chart below shows the extreme degree of inversion between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. The current inversion is the worst in over 40 years.
A yield curve inversion reduces bank lending for various reasons, one of which is the removal of the incentive for banks to borrow at lower short-term rates and lend at higher long-term rates. Since bank credit is how most money comes into creation, a yield curve inversion is, therefore, a sign that monetary conditions are deteriorating. Indeed, manipulating the interest rate is how the central bank controls the money supply and induces a recession.
The impact of rate hikes always occurs on a lagging basis. The lag can last anywhere from several quarters to several years. As the infographic below shows, an economic recession will likely begin in the U.S. between Q4 2023 and Q4 2024.
The warning signs of the coming liquidity crisis are everywhere.
In a prior post (shown below), @SquishTrade and I pointed out that a major disparity between the volatility of bond prices and the volatility of equity prices is occurring. This extreme disparity could be a warning that much greater volatility for equity markets has yet to come.
Even for stocks that have experienced a strong rally in 2023, the basis of their surge is largely unsupported by dollar liquidity levels. In the chart below, the price of NASDAQ:NVDA is compared against the dollar liquidity index.
This is further confirmed by the below chart, which shows how extreme the price of NASDAQ:NVDA as a ratio to the price of a risk-free 10-year Treasury bond has become. Never before have investors been willing to pay so high of a risk premium to hold Nvidia's stock.
While anything is possible, the charts suggest that there isn't enough money in the economy to support the payment of debt at current yields. The below chart shows the price of long-term government Treasurys (adjusted for interest payments) as a ratio to the M2 money supply.
There is simply not enough money in the M2 money stock for market participants to be able to pay all newly issued debt at the current high rates. When the liquidity issues begin to mount, the Fed will quickly pivot back to new money creation, as it did in March 2023 when it abruptly created the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which is the latest of the many tools that the Fed uses to create new money.
However, when the economy begins to slow, this time around central banks will get trapped because of commodity price inflation. Although commodity prices are generally disinflating at the present time, this slow disinflation is merely forming a bull flag on the higher timeframes.
With unemployment also bull flagging on the higher timeframes, when commodity prices and unemployment concurrently break out, the result will definitionally be stagflation.
Important Disclaimer
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
Economic Depression Ahead?We got some levels never seen in the last 40 years. Usually, the recessions start when the Yield Curve changes direction and comes back to positive territory. This time the numbers are huge and considering the National Debt Level...we could see an Economic Depression. Interest rates reduction within September 2023 and the start of the Recession by July 2023?
My advice to the Federal Reserve: 💥 Don't Fight the Bond Market!!
T10Y3MIf this chart doesn't show a recession i dont know what else does! Don't like to spread dooms but we must pay attention to this chart in order to manage our trades properly.
T10Y3M ALL TIME LOW RECESSION LEVELWe are still at an all-time low recession level.
Everybody should be cautious but keep on investing as every crisis gives good opportunities.
T10Y3M: Recession Still FarThis chart suggests that the coming recession will be anywhere from Q4 next year to Q4 2024 which is much later than what the 10 minus 2 year chart could be saying. There's also a possibility that the recent inversion is a false signal but unlike the 1998 fakeout, it went deeper and is much more likely a legitimate signal.
T10Y2Y Yield Inversion Briefly Occurred on Mar 29 and T10Y3M TBCHistorically, yield curve inversion had always predicated a future recession.
Normally, both FRED:T10Y2Y and T10Y3M require inversions and T10Y3M is yet to invert.
Historically, in the event both yield curves invert, the recession came in a delayed phase of 7-24 months from the curves invert.
What this means for the market is, at least in the short- to mid-term, the market is set up to stay bullish. Unless there is a significant negative surprise from geopolitical conflicts, unexpectedly high CPI prints the reversal trend we observe is set to maintain in the next coming months.
Particularly, AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ are reaching previous highs and I'm eyeing on these indices to see if they reach and surpass that level.
It would be wise to elevate your news gauge on global events, commodity prices, economic data releases.
Remember, recession arrives when nobody expects it to arrive.
