US Unemployment Rising: How Is This NOT a Recession?The U.S. unemployment numbers are steadily climbing, as indicated by recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Typically, significant rises in unemployment correlate directly with recessions, which are shaded gray in historical data charts.
Currently, unemployment has reached over 7 million, signific
About Unemployment Level
The bearish case for risk-on assets during rate cuts.It’s interesting to observe how, historically, every time the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, we tend to see a rise in unemployment and a decline in the S&P 500. While rate cuts are often used to stimulate the economy, they can signal underlying economic challenges that lead to market downturns
UNEMPLOYMENT / FED FUNDS RATE - PLAY BOOKUNEMPLOYMENT / FED FUNDS RATE - PLAY BOOK
This post I intend to explore with you the cyclic relationship we can observer between:
1) US Unemployment Rate (BLUE),
2) 21D SMA (Orange) based in unemployment data, and
3) Resultant Recessions (Gray Bars)
Historically, the general play book / sequence
Unemployment & The Coming RecessionOnce the Unemployment Rate crosses the 36 mo MA this has historically marked a period of
a coming Recession. As you can tell from the RSI indicator we entered into this phase a few months ago.
I'm posting this chart because tomorrow Biden is going to tell everyone how great the Economy is doing
The Phillips Curve with SPY(Inflation/Unemployment)I had read something on the, "Phillips Curve"
From Investopedia
"The concept behind the Phillips curve states the change in unemployment within an economy has a predictable effect on price inflation. The inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation is depicted as a downward sloping, con
Inflation / Unemployment / Stocks2022 is most comparable to 1978 in terms of the current jobs & inflation situation. Seven decades of history concerning the 3, shows that the current drop in stocks is more likely a correction and not the start of a true bear market. 1972-73 scenario is 1 against 6 odds (and that's after demoting 19
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