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UNRATE Update | December 2021 - PresentThe US unemployment rate can double from here and still be within the long-term range and still below the extremes that have occurred during more recent recessions. Also worth point out that the only time we have been below this level of unemployment (higher employment) was during the Korean war in the early 1950s. Sure, we could see the rate of employment increase - that can happen. But it's unlikely, based on 75 years of data that spans everything from Post-Keynesianism, to Real Business Cycle (RBC), to Monetarism, to MMT. As such, it is safe to conclude that a lower UE rate, from "here", is unlikely. So unemployment has probably bottomed, stocks are yet to recover their December 2021 highs (19 months) and the interest rate on the US10Y is up roughly 200% (having gone as high as + 215%) over the same 19-month period and currently offering a yield of 4.049%; the US10Y maintains it's lag of the US02Y, which is currently offering a yield of 4.95%. In other words, bank lending is more constrained... Wow, even the banks are telling us there is significant risk in the market. Meanwhile a lot of folks are running around telling you how great fake-money crypto supposedly is. Maybe the banks are right about risk.... Oh! one more thing: the VIX has also reached a bottom of sorts.
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by ChiefMacro
US banking crisis affects more than just banksIn the high-end dialogue session of the Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum, Zhu Min, former vice president of the International Monetary Fund and former vice governor of the People's Bank of China, had a conversation with Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, on the US banking crisis, the Fed's policy path choices and Hot topics such as the impact of inflation and the causes of inflation will be discussed. Regarding the U.S. banking crisis, Ray Dalio said it is important to realize that this is a pervasive problem that affects more than just the banking industry and that it is currently affecting many banks because many of them have bought government bonds . But many entities actually bought government bonds. And, it's not just US entities that buy US government bonds, but also European entities that buy European bonds because of monetary policy, etc.
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by tangerine111
Leading Indicators - PPI (PPIACO) vs. Unemployment (UNRATE) I wanted to highlight how the peak (downward move) in the Producer Price Index (PPIACO) typically corresponds with the trough (upward move) in the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) (inverse correlation), as a period of Recession takes hold on the economy, & the financial markets. I also wanted to compare the above correlation with cycle tops in WTI Crude Oil (WTISPLC) , & also with respect to the OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM) — as this helps to pinpoint some of the historic baseline(s) for predicting the peak &/or trough in the business vs. market (financial) cycles. Here is the key for the attached chart(s): Top Chart Black Line (Unemployment Rate - UNRATE): *Black Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Trough Blue Line (Producer Price Index - PPIACO): *Blue Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Peak Orange Line (WTI Spot Crude - WTISPLC): *Orange Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Peak Red Shaded Areas (Recession): Indicator via @chrism665 Bottom Chart OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): *Black Dashed Line* = Pre-Recession Indicator Peak Green Horizontal Dotted Line = Expansion Baseline (100) Orange Horizontal Dotted Line = Current Reading (98.62) Red Horizontal Dotted Line = Danger Zone (<97) Red Shaded Areas (Recession): Indicator via @chrism665 Looking at the larger picture of both charts, you can see that typically in previous periods of Recession you would see this flow of the signals (first to peak/trough, last to peak/trough): Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM) Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) *Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO)* *Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC)* *Note* - As you can see PPIACO & WTISPLC are very closely correlated as demand peaks out, you then see a shift downward in WTISPLC as this is a signal of the topping of economic growth. Now let's dive close-up into each time period of recession, as we can see some linkages/similarities in the 1991, 2001, & 2009 recessions vs. the what is (likely) a 23' recession, depending how the economic , markets , & financial data plays out this upcoming year — potentially into 24'. 1991 Recession Timeline Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): July 1987 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Mar. 1989 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): Oct. 1990 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): Nov. 1990 2001 Recession Timeline Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Jan. 2000 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Apr. 2000 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): Nov. 2000 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): Jan. 2001 2009 Recession Timeline Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): May 2007 Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): June 2007 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): June 2008 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): July 2008 2023(24) Recession Estimated? Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): May 2021 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): June 2022 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): June 2022 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Sept. 2022 What do you think about this macro analysis? Have we potentially been in a recession in 22' — or are we moving closer to higher unemployment (UNRATE) in 23' as the macro/market conditions worsen, & the Federal Reserve's tighter monetary conditions (liquidity & credit) take their toll on the economy? Let me know what you think in the comments below! 👇🏼
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by kylemusserco
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE vs SPXSo as you see - what comes down, must go up - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE is at record lows right now and when it did that - after some consolidation - it sttarted to grow - each time this happened, SPX entered a bear market. Calculating the amount of days since the breakout of the UNRATE trend - it is a range of ~ 100 to 400 days before starting the decline on SPX - right now it looks like UNRATE has broken the trend for more than 300 days already. So the decline isn't far. We haven't seen the worst yet.
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by TheSecretsOfTrading
Unemployment Rate vs SPXI'm just the messenger. SPX - orange Unemployment Rate - Blue Indicator - Moving Average out of Unemployment Rate This isn't a rule, as many sectors influence the market, but big crashes have been paired with a growing Unemployment rate. Here we can see that it bottomed and is consolidating - which proofs a strong economy and no need to crash - this suggests the ongoing decline was just a correction. To visualize this a bit more - I have coded a simple moving average to see when that curve will start heading up - and for now it isn't even turning up - this allows the market to push up before it starts turning. But when it will ... Hold on to your seats lads and ladies. It's gonna be a fast ride. Cheers!
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by TheSecretsOfTrading
DEAD CAT BOUNCE in #Stocks & Risk on assets.We are dead cat bouncing. #Biden is attempting to reduce the price of oil via favourable taxes so companies will produce more oil. This could help CPI moderate. Supply chains remain crippled, so this dead cat rolls over on the next piece of bad news. This could come in the form of unemployment start to accelerate. In prior recessions, unemployment typically spikes going from very low to very high levels over a short period of months at which point, welcome to HYPERstagflation that make the 1970s look tame. The upshot is #Bitcoin and stocks can fall a lot lower than current levels. Using the rationale that Bitcoin has already fallen 75% so, "How much further can it fall?" can lead to huge sums lost. In 2014 and 2018, it fell -87.5% and -84%, respectively. If Bitcoin were to fall again to such levels, it would represent another -50% drop from -75% if it fell to -87.5% off peak, not just -12.5%. #math
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by BallaJi
3
Unemployment Rate & SP500From Investopedia: Low unemployment is usually regarded as a positive sign for the economy. A very low rate of unemployment, however, can have negative consequences, such as inflation and reduced productivity. When the labor market reaches a point where each additional job added does not create enough productivity to cover its cost, then an output gap, or slack, happens. The level at which unemployment equals positive output is highly debated. However, economists suggest that as the U.S. unemployment rate gets below 5%, the economy is very close to or at full capacity. So at 3.5%, one could argue the level of unemployment is too low, and the U.S. economy is becoming inefficient.
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by tianmu94
1
Why the unemployment number are Bullish...unemployment numbers were released earlier today they missed substantially from estimates of 978,000 jobs came in at 266,000 the big number here which surprised me is that manufacturing jobs dropped by 18,000 so that traction that we’ve seen over the past several months is one away completely. Let me address why I think the markets are doing better today. I believe there was a great fear that we are overheating in the economy and this shows that this is not happening one of the other things I want to mention here which is important is that my expectations that I discussed on the Livestream on YouTube on Wednesday were that we would have at least one or two more months of good employment numbers and then it would flatten off and the Fed would struggle to get things to move forward. So this is going to put a lot of pressure on states and federal government to get the country open and moving forward. This sets the tone for the possibility of more stimulus in a classic scenario of bad news is good news. Looking at the long-term employment chart this is important also to look at as the average between the high and low going back to 1949 is 6% so we are at 6.1 everybody was expecting this to drop down to 5.8 today so we are actually in the mean of were employment normally exist over time. So we tend to get a few points below 6% in a few points above and those periods of time are considered to be booms or recessionary periods depending on how much above or below these lines we are at. My expectations are now that we did get this bad report is the report for May when it comes out next month this is going to be important to keep a close watch on as if it does not down tech below 5.8 then this is likely to become a big issue with the Fed trying to stimulate the economy. I think will begin to see and hear more rhetoric from the treasury/Janet Yellen over the next several weeks if they are seeing numbers in the background that we can’t see that are concerning them. In summary, this is why I believe the markets are doing better today and will continue to do better as folks will be expecting to see some noise starting around possible new stimulus and other things that are likely to help push the new infrastructure bill through.
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by KendallReport
1
Civilian Unemployment Rate - V1Continuing on my exploration for signs of economic trouble ahead (or not?) I thought I'd take a look at the Unemployment rate figures, assuming they'd follow patterns like everything else. Well, they sure do seem to.... I've forgone my normally Fibonacci delving in the timing intervals and just used some basic extrapolation, as it's made all the harder by Trading View not correctly accounting the date across the bottom past the current date, but the timings make logical sense in regards to longer economic cycles, with more and more violent ups and downs. Anyway, enjoy, comments / thoughts always welcome.
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by TheDarkEconomist
UNRATE - Dangerous low levelsLow levels of unemployment normally mean that the economy is at its best and that all companies are fully hired and investors have been investing a lot to grow businesses. The danger is overinvesting and a very competitive environment which backslash in this euporic low levels of unemployment. These are well correlated to economies topping as the tipping point only means to fire people and turn into a downward trend again. Additionally the negative rates from the European Central Bank have sparked a lot of debate and there is no more further room for quantative easing if a economic collapse occurs. A recipe for distaster if you ask me, we will see it come around and most of the time act too late. There is no escape from it.
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by TheTrex
12