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Civilian Unemployment Rate

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UNRATE trade ideas

Why the unemployment number are Bullish...unemployment numbers were released earlier today they missed substantially from estimates of 978,000 jobs came in at 266,000 the big number here which surprised me is that manufacturing jobs dropped by 18,000 so that traction that we’ve seen over the past several months is one away completely. Let me address why I think the markets are doing better today. I believe there was a great fear that we are overheating in the economy and this shows that this is not happening one of the other things I want to mention here which is important is that my expectations that I discussed on the Livestream on YouTube on Wednesday were that we would have at least one or two more months of good employment numbers and then it would flatten off and the Fed would struggle to get things to move forward. So this is going to put a lot of pressure on states and federal government to get the country open and moving forward. This sets the tone for the possibility of more stimulus in a classic scenario of bad news is good news. Looking at the long-term employment chart this is important also to look at as the average between the high and low going back to 1949 is 6% so we are at 6.1 everybody was expecting this to drop down to 5.8 today so we are actually in the mean of were employment normally exist over time. So we tend to get a few points below 6% in a few points above and those periods of time are considered to be booms or recessionary periods depending on how much above or below these lines we are at. My expectations are now that we did get this bad report is the report for May when it comes out next month this is going to be important to keep a close watch on as if it does not down tech below 5.8 then this is likely to become a big issue with the Fed trying to stimulate the economy. I think will begin to see and hear more rhetoric from the treasury/Janet Yellen over the next several weeks if they are seeing numbers in the background that we can’t see that are concerning them. In summary, this is why I believe the markets are doing better today and will continue to do better as folks will be expecting to see some noise starting around possible new stimulus and other things that are likely to help push the new infrastructure bill through.
FRED:UNRATE
by KendallReport
1
Civilian Unemployment Rate - V1Continuing on my exploration for signs of economic trouble ahead (or not?) I thought I'd take a look at the Unemployment rate figures, assuming they'd follow patterns like everything else. Well, they sure do seem to.... I've forgone my normally Fibonacci delving in the timing intervals and just used some basic extrapolation, as it's made all the harder by Trading View not correctly accounting the date across the bottom past the current date, but the timings make logical sense in regards to longer economic cycles, with more and more violent ups and downs. Anyway, enjoy, comments / thoughts always welcome.
FRED:UNRATE
by TheDarkEconomist
UNRATE - Dangerous low levelsLow levels of unemployment normally mean that the economy is at its best and that all companies are fully hired and investors have been investing a lot to grow businesses. The danger is overinvesting and a very competitive environment which backslash in this euporic low levels of unemployment. These are well correlated to economies topping as the tipping point only means to fire people and turn into a downward trend again. Additionally the negative rates from the European Central Bank have sparked a lot of debate and there is no more further room for quantative easing if a economic collapse occurs. A recipe for distaster if you ask me, we will see it come around and most of the time act too late. There is no escape from it.
FRED:UNRATE
by TheTrex
12
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FRED:UNRATELong
by ivan_gold_star_
1
Unemployment as an indicator for Recession or DepressionsI've put together this simple chart to try to visualize how the unemployment rate may be an indicator of what's to come. When credit flows and people and companies can get debt to drive growth, you get more spend, more income, more highers, more employment, more jobs. However, as this starts to slow, it starts to drop, leading to potentially the economy slowing down. Companies stop hiring, and eventually firing. It might be interesting to get LinkedIn data here, as they probably have this dynamic reflected in Open Positions and People looking for jobs. What are your thoughts on the graph? Any other way you'd calculate the rate of change of the graphs (inflection points on employment/unemployment)?
FRED:UNRATE
by gotomars