UNRATE trade ideas
Civilian Unemployment Rate - V1Continuing on my exploration for signs of economic trouble ahead (or not?) I thought I'd take a look at the Unemployment rate figures, assuming they'd follow patterns like everything else.
Well, they sure do seem to....
I've forgone my normally Fibonacci delving in the timing intervals and just used some basic extrapolation, as it's made all the harder by Trading View not correctly accounting the date across the bottom past the current date, but the timings make logical sense in regards to longer economic cycles, with more and more violent ups and downs.
Anyway, enjoy, comments / thoughts always welcome.
UNRATE - Dangerous low levelsLow levels of unemployment normally mean that the economy is at its best and that all companies are fully hired and investors have been investing a lot to grow businesses. The danger is overinvesting and a very competitive environment which backslash in this euporic low levels of unemployment. These are well correlated to economies topping as the tipping point only means to fire people and turn into a downward trend again.
Additionally the negative rates from the European Central Bank have sparked a lot of debate and there is no more further room for quantative easing if a economic collapse occurs. A recipe for distaster if you ask me, we will see it come around and most of the time act too late. There is no escape from it.
Unemployment Rate Overlayed Federal Funds RateOne must admit it is remarkable where the unemployment level was pre-covid. There would have been a considerable melt up within the market at peak employment like that.
It is a trying state of affairs as the unemployment rate is viciously targeting various sectors relentlessly.
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Highest Unemployment Rate ever!!!!!Here you will clearly see the highest Unemployement rate ever recorded in the US. This chart only goes back so far, but if you could go back further you would see that it is definetly the highest rate ever.
Unbelievable.
US unemployment rate from a TA perspective
RSI at its historic low (in the available data).
It looks like the rate hit (or almost hit) the support line.
Can we say there will be an increasing unemployment rate, based on low RSI and the support line?
Covid Depression 2020 reached point of no return? URATE at 14%.The Awesome Oscillator (graph below) went from negative to positive this month (MAY 2020). The last two times this happened in 2001 and 2008, recessions hit the US and the world economies were shacked. Is this the starting point of the downward acceleration spiral?
Shit has started to hit the fan - 2020 Covid Great DepressionUnemployment rate in the US has increased at a very accelerated rate.
US Unemployment Rate is starting to IncreaseIn 2001, 2008 and now in 2020, the Unemployment rates started to increase considerably before economical crisis. I've put this quick chart together to keep an eye on this.
Unemployment and Market Value Inverse CorrelationGrowth drives employment. Contraction drives unemployment.
Unemployment as an indicator for Recession or DepressionsI've put together this simple chart to try to visualize how the unemployment rate may be an indicator of what's to come. When credit flows and people and companies can get debt to drive growth, you get more spend, more income, more highers, more employment, more jobs. However, as this starts to slow, it starts to drop, leading to potentially the economy slowing down. Companies stop hiring, and eventually firing. It might be interesting to get LinkedIn data here, as they probably have this dynamic reflected in Open Positions and People looking for jobs. What are your thoughts on the graph? Any other way you'd calculate the rate of change of the graphs (inflection points on employment/unemployment)?
I might be a prophetHey guys,
I have a strange feeling that on April 3rd, this FRED is going to go straight up. Just a gut feeling...
In other words,
We screwed.
US unemployment rate with 12 month MA versus SP500This indicator has proven a fairly one as to turns in the market over the years and if (and it is a big if with the situation ever fluid and the US chucking literally trillions to keep the economy afloat)) but if this Covid-19 pandemic does send the US into a recession and the unemployment rates up with it then perhaps we shall have to start looking for a more protracted decline in the markets. Lets hope it doesn't.
Unemployment looks like it's about to skyrocket.I hope I'm wrongI don't hear to much debate about what part of the business cycle we're in. We were in the part of the cycle when no profit generating companies go parabolic ( the of the cycle if you don't get the reference). This unemployment chart suggests we might be in for some darker days ahead.
Stay safe.
CIVILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (UNRATE) MonthlyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low
Unemployment Rate Recession correlatesThe 9/15 month MA that I posted previously combined with an additional specific event, an increase in unemployment of 0.6% from a recent low, better correlates with recessions since the 1950s than just the MA crossover. The crossover has in recent history preceded recessions while the 0.6% increases happen before, along with the start of of in the first 3 months of a recession. Currently neither of these events has occurred.
UNRATE(Civilian Unemployment Rate) Gartley Pattern just for funIn UNRATE Chart there is a worked bullish Gartley Pattern. FRED:UNRATE
Unemployment rate moving averageLooking for the Unemployment rate moving average to crossover in order to signal incoming recession. Crossover will provide useful investment reassessment trigger.
