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Civilian Unemployment Rate

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UNRATE trade ideas

Next U.S. Recession is further out A lot of people are thinking the recession and crash in the equities markets will start this year. I beg to differ. Gold is in accumulation and so is bitcoin. I think both assets will rally up to their previous highs within the next two years and when the market crashes in 2022-23 that is when gold and bitcoin will dump around 40-50% with equities. There is another support for unemployment suggesting a possible crash at the end of 2020. Equities are extremely over valued but the market is completely irrational and I believe will go higher than most expect.
FRED:UNRATELong
by mattgetsbarreled
2
Dow Jones Correlation with Unemployment Rate-Offical CalculationThis chart shows the correlation of the Dow Jones over time with the "official" Unemployment Rate here in the U.S. Its interesting at least to see how well the Unemployment rate dictates the tops and bottoms in the Dow Jones practically to a "T". Please comment and let me know what you think of this idea... Also, I have inverted the unemployment rate and applied the Heiken Ashi indicator to it for easier viewing and flow.
FRED:UNRATEEducation
by jasonroy40
5
Global Market in Big Danger! Unemployment at all-time low!As you can see low-unemployment is early signal markets start to reverse, especially if there are divergences present between unemployment and it's RSI value. When low unemployment starts to break up this means that the market is saturated with jobs and many flourishing businesses, there has been a phase of economic euphoria and the climate becomes highly competitive as many loans/money are/is invested. I do reckon we see the dow return to the yellow dashed line as this is a long-term carrying trend.
FRED:UNRATE
by TheTrex
5
Civilian unemployment rate Civilian unemployment rate is calculated by the number of unemployed people divided by the total size of the labor force and is expressed as a percentage. People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work are considered unemployed. The labor force is defined as people who are either employed or unemployed. The unemployment rate is the share of the labor force that is jobless, expressed as a percentage. It is a lagging indicator, meaning that it generally rises or falls in the wake of changing economic conditions, rather than anticipating them. When the economy is in poor shape and jobs are scarce, the unemployment rate can be expected to rise. When the economy is growing at a healthy rate and jobs are relatively plentiful, it can be expected to fall. In the U.S., the U3 or U-3 rate, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases as part of its monthly employment situation report, is the most commonly cited national rate. It is not the only metric available, however, and it receives criticism for giving the impression that the labor market is healthier than alternative measures would indicate. For this reason some observers prefer to track the more comprehensive U6 rate The official unemployment rate is known as U3. It defines unemployed people as those who are willing and available to work, and who have actively sought work within the past four weeks. Those with temporary, part-time or full-time jobs are considered employed, as are those who perform at least 15 hours of unpaid family work. To calculate the unemployment rate, the number of unemployed people is divided by the number of people in the labor force, which consists of all employed and unemployed people. The ratio is expressed as a percentage.
FRED:UNRATEEducation
by KAGOR_INVEST
1
Using the Unemployment Rate as a ContraindicatorThis is my first time using TradingView, or posting here so please forgive any flaws or failings in my format. This chart highlights the U.S. Unemployment rate (bottom section) compared to the S&P 500 (top section). The Unemployment Rate also has a 12-month moving average overlaying it. I’m posting this idea as much to be an inquiry as anything. But, it appears to me that at least with respect to recent bull and bear markets looking at the unemployment rate and it’s 12-month moving average crossover has been helpful in deciding whether to significantly increase or decrease equities as a percentage of asset allocation. Various studies indicate that asset allocation is the number one indicator of long-term performance. Are you mostly in, or mostly out of the right asset classes at the right time? With the unemployment rate peaking near the beginning of this bull market and having declined throughout, I am convinced that it bares close watching now that it is approaching the 4% level. A lot of other bull markets have ended just as unemployment rates bottomed. If we can identify the inflection point, or even estimate it within two or three calendar quarters it could significantly impact our long term performance by helping us reduce equity exposure either before the next bear market, near the peak, or within a reasonable time after it has begun and before the damage is too severe. I can see the crossover is not precise for fine tuning timing, but does give some rough context and insights into when risks are lessening or building. I welcome any other thoughts, ideas, feedback, or suggestions that may help expand the discussion and insights related to unemployment as a market indicator and look forward to hearing them…
FRED:UNRATE
by Onajourney