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Civilian Unemployment Rate

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UNRATE trade ideas

recession indicatorEvery single time the FED has started a rate-cutting cycle with unemployment under 5%, a recession has ensued. 100% of the time since the 1940s. Every orange vertical line is a recession in the USA. notice how the fed funds rate (red line) tends to drop right before. Exactly like what is happening now. Value and real estate is where its at now that the fed will most likely return rates to effectively 0%. unfortunately long on unemployment. And short the stock market indices.
FRED:UNRATELong
by MysteriousPersian
Unemployment Rates and Economic TrendsUnemployment graph since 1950. Drastic highs and lows from business layoffs spurring economic crashes. Each trough puts in motion an economic recession. A healthy economy has an unemployment rate of 4.5%. Below or above that range is considered unhealthy. We are currently in the longest unemployment decrease in history. I think currently the US economy is recognizing an exhausting expansion. An 11 year expansion since the 2008 recession. Economies are like stocks, consisting of waves. With the FEDs regulating the buying and selling of bonds to offset inflation and deflation, attempting to control economic rollercoasters. This is only an idea but a downward shift will come, the question is when. Disclaimer: Unemployment rate does not count anyone not looking for work, which is probably higher today than in US history. One cause for the low unemployment rate.
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by quantacake
Less than 700 days left until the party is over! Okie, i am not going to rant about doom and gloom here. I just think there is an interesting similarity between 1997-2000 Fractal trend. Which means, that we have still long way to go for BULL, why? Maybe because of TRUMP and his desire for peace though Strength policy. Nobody wants war, especially Trump's ego. Thus, we can conclude that next election is all it is about. If Dems win, we are ALL screwed. Why? Because they want change, the dumb kind, that will put wall street on notice and business out of work. So yeah, watch the trend line like a hawk, but it seems we are breaking 300 soon enough. Good luck everyone ;) **LEGENDS** BLUE = Bear/Resistance Yellow = Bull/ Support ~Explore the chart for possible scenarios of price actions - use zoom and scroll for better view.~ /*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.*/ If you want your coin to be analyzed, JUST ask. If you got a question, ASK away! And please keep those Stop losses in place! Fractal dates are moments of interest, where price and time collide to create oscillation - vertical lines! Thank you, Ajion
FRED:UNRATELong
by Ajion
Next U.S. Recession is further out A lot of people are thinking the recession and crash in the equities markets will start this year. I beg to differ. Gold is in accumulation and so is bitcoin. I think both assets will rally up to their previous highs within the next two years and when the market crashes in 2022-23 that is when gold and bitcoin will dump around 40-50% with equities. There is another support for unemployment suggesting a possible crash at the end of 2020. Equities are extremely over valued but the market is completely irrational and I believe will go higher than most expect.
FRED:UNRATELong
by mattgetsbarreled
2
Dow Jones Correlation with Unemployment Rate-Offical CalculationThis chart shows the correlation of the Dow Jones over time with the "official" Unemployment Rate here in the U.S. Its interesting at least to see how well the Unemployment rate dictates the tops and bottoms in the Dow Jones practically to a "T". Please comment and let me know what you think of this idea... Also, I have inverted the unemployment rate and applied the Heiken Ashi indicator to it for easier viewing and flow.
FRED:UNRATEEducation
by jasonroy40
5
Global Market in Big Danger! Unemployment at all-time low!As you can see low-unemployment is early signal markets start to reverse, especially if there are divergences present between unemployment and it's RSI value. When low unemployment starts to break up this means that the market is saturated with jobs and many flourishing businesses, there has been a phase of economic euphoria and the climate becomes highly competitive as many loans/money are/is invested. I do reckon we see the dow return to the yellow dashed line as this is a long-term carrying trend.
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by TheTrex
5
Civilian unemployment rate Civilian unemployment rate is calculated by the number of unemployed people divided by the total size of the labor force and is expressed as a percentage. People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work are considered unemployed. The labor force is defined as people who are either employed or unemployed. The unemployment rate is the share of the labor force that is jobless, expressed as a percentage. It is a lagging indicator, meaning that it generally rises or falls in the wake of changing economic conditions, rather than anticipating them. When the economy is in poor shape and jobs are scarce, the unemployment rate can be expected to rise. When the economy is growing at a healthy rate and jobs are relatively plentiful, it can be expected to fall. In the U.S., the U3 or U-3 rate, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases as part of its monthly employment situation report, is the most commonly cited national rate. It is not the only metric available, however, and it receives criticism for giving the impression that the labor market is healthier than alternative measures would indicate. For this reason some observers prefer to track the more comprehensive U6 rate The official unemployment rate is known as U3. It defines unemployed people as those who are willing and available to work, and who have actively sought work within the past four weeks. Those with temporary, part-time or full-time jobs are considered employed, as are those who perform at least 15 hours of unpaid family work. To calculate the unemployment rate, the number of unemployed people is divided by the number of people in the labor force, which consists of all employed and unemployed people. The ratio is expressed as a percentage.
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by KAGOR_INVEST
1
Using the Unemployment Rate as a ContraindicatorThis is my first time using TradingView, or posting here so please forgive any flaws or failings in my format. This chart highlights the U.S. Unemployment rate (bottom section) compared to the S&P 500 (top section). The Unemployment Rate also has a 12-month moving average overlaying it. I’m posting this idea as much to be an inquiry as anything. But, it appears to me that at least with respect to recent bull and bear markets looking at the unemployment rate and it’s 12-month moving average crossover has been helpful in deciding whether to significantly increase or decrease equities as a percentage of asset allocation. Various studies indicate that asset allocation is the number one indicator of long-term performance. Are you mostly in, or mostly out of the right asset classes at the right time? With the unemployment rate peaking near the beginning of this bull market and having declined throughout, I am convinced that it bares close watching now that it is approaching the 4% level. A lot of other bull markets have ended just as unemployment rates bottomed. If we can identify the inflection point, or even estimate it within two or three calendar quarters it could significantly impact our long term performance by helping us reduce equity exposure either before the next bear market, near the peak, or within a reasonable time after it has begun and before the damage is too severe. I can see the crossover is not precise for fine tuning timing, but does give some rough context and insights into when risks are lessening or building. I welcome any other thoughts, ideas, feedback, or suggestions that may help expand the discussion and insights related to unemployment as a market indicator and look forward to hearing them…
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by Onajourney