FEDFUNDS UNRATEPre-recession pattern activated since Aug'23.
FEDFUNDS <= Max of the Economic Cycle (EC)
UNRATE > Min of EC
10y-2y > Min of EC
10y-3m > Min of EC
Civilian Unemployment Rate forum
FEDFUNDS UNRATEPre-recession pattern activated since Aug'23.
FEDFUNDS <= Max of the Economic Cycle (EC)
UNRATE > Min of EC
10y-2y > Min of EC
10y-3m > Min of EC
UNRATE has always been lagging and negative correlated with $US01Y. Brace for impact
Initial unemployment claims finally broke out. A clear break above the weekly moving average ribbon has occurred, and this always happens near the start of a recession.
ICSA / UNRATE / USCJC / USIJC /JTSJOL
ICSA / UNRATE / USCJC / USIJC /JTSJOL
Another jobs report where a major labor scarcity is being reported. It is hard to imagine wage inflation not becoming entrenched in the face of such scarcity. The last time labor was as scarce was in 1969 right before we entered a decade of stagflation, and stock market stagnation.
UNRATE
UNRATE 
Continuing jobless claims in the U.S. just rose above the weekly EMA ribbon. This usually occurs during the early phase of an economic recession.
tradingview.com/x/DRD4MiHa/
USCJC UNRATE
tradingview.com/x/DRD4MiHa/
USCJC UNRATE
UNRATE Is it just me or does macd on this look like it's ready to explode the unemployment rate over the next few months?
The unemployment rate is still low, holding worrying about inflation will rise again UNRATE
UNRATE 