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Civilian Unemployment Rate

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FEDFUNDS
UNRATE
Pre-recession pattern activated since Aug'23.
FEDFUNDS <= Max of the Economic Cycle (EC)
UNRATE > Min of EC
10y-2y > Min of EC
10y-3m > Min of EC
Snapshot

UNRATE has always been lagging and negative correlated with US01Y. Brace for impact

Initial unemployment claims finally broke out. A clear break above the weekly moving average ribbon has occurred, and this always happens near the start of a recession.

ICSA / UNRATE / USCJC / USIJC /JTSJOL
Snapshot

Another jobs report where a major labor scarcity is being reported. It is hard to imagine wage inflation not becoming entrenched in the face of such scarcity. The last time labor was as scarce was in 1969 right before we entered a decade of stagflation, and stock market stagnation.

UNRATE
Snapshot

Continuing jobless claims in the U.S. just rose above the weekly EMA ribbon. This usually occurs during the early phase of an economic recession.

tradingview.com/x/DRD4MiHa/
USCJC UNRATE

UNRATE Is it just me or does macd on this look like it's ready to explode the unemployment rate over the next few months?
Snapshot

The peak in job openings in early 2022 was likely a supercycle high. JTSJOL UNEMPLOY UNRATE US10Y
Snapshot

The unemployment rate is still low, holding worrying about inflation will rise again UNRATE
Snapshot