Global liquidity breakoutA weighted sum of global liquidity has just broken out of a falling wedge, signaling a clear cash injection into the financial system. This breakout suggests an imminent shift in market conditions, as liquidity expansion typically fuels risk-on sentiment across equities, crypto, and commodities. Since this is a lagging indicator, markets are expected to react soon, with asset prices likely to follow the upward momentum driven by increased liquidity.
The formula aggregates the total assets of major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, People’s Bank of China, and European Central Bank, while adjusting for currency exchange rates to reflect their true impact in USD terms. Liquidity-draining factors such as the Reverse Repo (RRP) and the Treasury General Account (TGA) are subtracted to provide a clearer picture of the actual liquidity available in the system.
WALCL trade ideas
BLX and the Global EconomyUsing as a reference tool to compare the growth of Bitcoin (BLX chart) with the Global Economy as a metric and finding a solid bottom for the Global Economy metric at the 1.618 retracement in late September 2023
BLX (orange/white) candles
Global Economy (blue/white candles)
Global Economy Includes:
-------------------------------
US total assets
Central Bank Assets for Euro Area * Euro to US Dollar Rate less Reverse Repurchase Agreement (Reverse REPOs) less Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits with F.R. Banks, Other Than Reserve Balances: U.S. Treasury, General Account
China Central Bank Balance Sheet * Chinese Yuan to United States Dollar
Total Assets for Japan * Japanese Yen to United States Dollar
NOTE: I have never tried to run a compare in Tradingview so I hope that the BLX compare continues to run alongside with the Global Economy. If this does not run in tandem I will update with monthly snapshots as a feel that this is an important metric in measuring how closely BTC could outpace or under-perform the Global Economy as whole.
▀▀█═╡🤡╞═█▀▀
Are we entering QE? I find it hard to imagine that the Balance Sheet of the FED ('total assets') fits into some kind of channel or TA, but I have to be honest that I do see some patterns here. Total Assets is in a channel that has been going on for years, the end of which seems to be in sight. This means that the transformation from QT to QE is slowly taking place (this could take months). In addition, it seems that the RSI is also 'oversold' and seems to be making its way to go up. Of course, QT can continue, but I do expect QE to take place somewhere in Q2 or Q3 2025...
This is not a tradable asset, so of course you should take this with a grain of salt!
Macro Monday 61 - Fed Balance Sheet Signals Liquidity BounceMacro Monday 61
Fed Balance Sheet Hits Long Term Supporting Trend Line
The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is published weekly, typically on Thursday afternoons, and it provides valuable information on the direction of global liquidity and the fed’s monetary policy.
When the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet increases, it means that the central bank is acquiring more assets. This expansion can occur through purchases of Treasury securities, mortgage-backed securities, or other financial instruments. The increase in assets typically leads to greater liquidity in the financial system and can influence interest rates. Conversely, a decrease in the balance sheet indicates asset sales and reduced liquidity
The Chart - FRED:WALCL
▫️ Since April 2022 the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet has reduced from $8.973 trillion to $7.140 trillion (reduction of $1.833 Trillion).
▫️ Right now, the chart has signaled that we have hit a critical diagonal trend line support (red line on chart).
▫️ We have hit this red trend line twice in the past (Sept 2019 & Aug 2008) and on both occasions it bounced from the red trend line and the balance sheet thereafter increased significantly for 2 to 5 years.
If you follow me on Trading view, you can revisit this chart at any time and press play to get the up to date data and see if we have held the line or fallen below it.
What does the following mean to you?
✅High likelihood of interest rate reductions in Sept.
✅Apparent stabilization of the rate of inflation (U.S)
✅A current stable labor market in the U.S
⏳The possibility of the balance sheet bouncing from trend support and increasing from the support line as it did in the past for 2 years+ (Increasing Global Liquidity).
Versus
🚨 The yield curve un-inverting (moving above 0)
🚨 Sahm Rule Triggered
🚨 The marginal increase in the U.S. Unemployment Rate which is consistent with prior recessions.
🚨 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and Continuous Jobless claims have had increases consistent with pre recession historic activity.
🚨Job openings reducing since March 2022 from approx. 12m to 9m (this would be the largest pre recession drop ever if followed by a recession.
🚨 Warren Buffet sitting on the biggest pile of cash ever.
Does this all say “soft landing” imminent or should we be worried?
In my opinion, we will know by Jan 2026. Its a big window of time, but the timing is the biggest challenge, and if we can take one thing from the above, volatility is guaranteed.
Happy Trading
PUKA
Good Liquidity Proxy? Fed balance sheet + BOJ balance sheet adjusted to USD + PBOC balance sheet adjusted to usd - Fed reverse repo - Treasury general account + Assets held at money market funds
Looks as if 1% rise in liquidity = 5% Rise in Crypto
Michael Howell thinks there is a 6 week lag with liquidity and Bitcoin, and 6 month Lag with Liquidity and Gold
Only Allows a Weekly Timeframe.
A more experience trader/chartist I'm sure could improve this draw.
Copy and Paste Below into Trading View:
FRED:WALCL+FRED:JPNASSETS*FX_IDC:JPYUSD+ECONOMICS:CNCBBS*FX_IDC:CNYUSD-FRED:RRPONTSYD-FRED:WTREGEN+FRED:MMMFFAQ027S
Quantitative Tightening Effects on the Markets This video tutorial discussion:
• What is QE and QT?
• Each impact to the stock market
• The latest QT, how will the stock market into 2024?
Dow Jones Futures & Its Minimum Fluctuation
E-mini Dow Jones Futures
1.0 index point = $5.00
Code: YM
Micro E-mini Dow Jones Futures
1.0 index point = $0.50
Code: MYM
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet SnapshotFederal Reserve Balance Sheet Snapshot
- Between the 11 - 18th Sept 2023 we had the Largest
one week decline of approx. $74.7 billion since the
balance sheet reduction started in April 2022
- We are currently approx. $50 billion away from a
1 trillion reduction 👀
We are in for an interesting Quarter end to the 2023 year, that is to say the least.
Stay Nimble
Puka
LIQUIDITY MATTERS! Global liquidity vs #BitcoinLook at how the bullish green arrows and bearish red arrows show how global liquidity correlates HEAVILY with the direction of Bitcoin. T
You don't have to be a genius to see how beautiful this correlation is.
And how sensitive #BTC is to excess capital in the system.
As a risk on asset
When ppl have easy money to gamble with , a portion of that ends up in the #Crypto markets.
Currently you can see how aggressive the withdrawal of liquidity is across the globe
In the USA, EU, China & Japan.
Liquidity and $SPYThis measure of Liquidity (blue line) generally tracks AMEX:SPY (orange line). Both were generally declining throughout 2022 and then increasing in 1H 2023. However, in the last month or so there has been a marked divergence, the resolution of which may be an important aspect of equity market direction. One to watch.
Fed Liquidity Pump-- the fix is in-- Oh no? Oh no! Oh YEAA! Recently, experienced financial analyst/economist Michael Howell (see footnote 1) has made the case that central bank liquidity (and to a lesser degree, private sector liquidity) is what drives risk-on markets ( NASDAQ:QQQ , KRAKEN:BTCUSD ).
While Dr. Howell uses his own deep analysis to predict that liquidity is now in an uptrend (see any of his numerous video interviews over the past 3 months on youtube), we point out that Elliot Waves have successfully predicted past liquidity changes (2012-2019), and that we now have a new Elliot Wave set up targeting a 35% rise in liquidity over the coming 24 months!
Based on a reading of Dr. Howell's material, we can approximate Fed-sourced liquidity roughly by using a formula that makes use of the following weekly data-points:
FRED:WALCL (Federal Reserve Balance Sheet)
FRED:WDTGAL (US Treasury General Account)
FRED:RRPONTSYD ("Reverse Repo" facility)
" But but... the recession! "
" But but... earnings! "
" But but... CPI still over 2% "
Will risk-on markets follow liquidity, or will they follow the main street economy? Dr. Howell and Elliot Waves point to the former!
footnote 1:
Founded CrossBorder Capital in 1996. Michael developed the quantitative liquidity research methodology while he was Research Director at Salomon Bros. from 1986. He was subsequently appointed Head of Research at Baring Securities in 1992, and was top-ranked “Emerging Market Strategist” by institutional investors for the three years prior to setting up CrossBorder Capital. Michael has worked in financial markets since 1981 and is a regular international conference speaker. He is a qualified US Supervisory Analyst and has a Doctorate in Economics.
(from crossbordercapital.com)
Central Bank Liquidity vs US MarketsThis chart presents central bank liquidity (credit: @DylanLeClair_ on Twitter for the calculation). It demonstrates a consistent pattern: when global liquidity decreases, the US markets also decline. The chart highlights the notable trend of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), particularly as the US markets attempt to push higher. This information provides insight for investors and analysts, enabling them to gauge market movements and understand the influence of global liquidity changes on the US markets.
AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:RUT TVC:DJI NASDAQ:NDX
Central bank liquidity is a pretty good indicator for SPXWatching a pullback take place in central bank liquidity usually correlates with retracements in SPX (albeit sometimes lagging). If it explodes higher, that could possibly mean two things, we're in the actual QE stage (we're not there yet despite what many others claim) and that would suppose the actual crisis has started. I would expect the move to be down first in such scenario, even with central banks propping up the market with liquidity.