Willshire5000 - the extended Buffett indicator - SPX 6084How to read the Char.
In the main pan, there we find the ratio built by Willshire5000 divided by global Gross Domestic.
As you know, the Buffett indicator is built by the ratio built by Willshire5000 divided by GDP USA. Meantime, together with the strong globalization, various experts thinking, that US companies make a lot of there revenues in foreign countries. And GDP US contains this not exactly. Example: an big company is contained in the willshire5000 as a price, but runrover etc. Is contained in a other country.
Whatever: the extended Buffett Indicator is for sure and in a relatively sight in the amount better than the US GDP to measure a relative economic performance.
Very impressive: This indicator shows only two times an extreme irrational Exuberation, as marked in the chart below and the marked losses in SPX.
100% for sure: we are very close to a third irrational exuberation. Big big troubles in US Market ahead.
Dan, 12. dec. 24
WILL5000PR trade ideas
Stoxx600 and M3 EUM3 contains more asset classes than M2. So, to find the signs to bubble, in a point of historical view, it might be better, to compare value of equities with M3. Therefore you see below, what it means. Market crisis/crashes are marked.
The differences from 2007/08 to others: there we had an Interbanken problem: no one trusted each other and was not willing to overtake overnight credits. Second: the fed announced, to take several repo papera from the list, which means big problems for some primary dealers.
All in all it was not a problem of to much money in the system, the problem was, that some money was on wrong places. Panic driven at the end.
Whatever: actually, no doubt, we have to much money in the system.
Brutal Truth: War is Good for Biz across the M.I.C.Reflecting on war through industrial eyes. Ukraine's never ending conflict has been good for business across the Military Industrial Compex, across the globe. The threat of an expansionist China has led to wholesale changes in the historically sidelined Japanese military base www.perplexity.ai and business is booming from Mitsubishi Industrial to Rolls Royce to GE Aerospace down the line to various ETF's shown here. Since Jan 2022, pre-Ukraine 2.0 war, you can see the outperformance of these stocks vs. the broadest Wilshire 5000 price index. Expect more. And that includes the laggard that most people don't realize is 50% government/military----- Boeing!
Wilshire 5000 - approaching a decision point.The Wilshire 5000 is basically the broad market
literally every publicly company in the America and also some foreign corporations are incorporated in this index
We are coming to a decision area, not right now. But over the course of the next few months and years.
We could see a breakout up and a continuation of the ever uptrend
or a breakdown,
and change in longterm trend
Since these numbers are denominated in ever worthless dollars
betting up
with periods of panic has forever been the right call.
Place your bets accordingly.
Buffet Indicator applied to todays market conditionsThe Buffet indicator uses overall US equities value compared to GDP as a simple metric. Applying this to previous bubbles there are several similarities indicating a potential recession and downward trend. Recently the Buffet indicator was rejected off of the QE bubble trend. Based on long term levels of fair market ratios in a NON QE environment, the indicator has lower to go. Fundamentals will be crucial over the next few quarters and will require continued growth and EPS to suit in murky market waters. With higher terminal rates, inverted yield curves, sticky inflation, and a consumer credit issue on the horizon (credit card debt is skyrocketing); it'll be a high risk game of chicken between Investors and the Fed all while watching the clock count down to the next quarter HOPING companies can outlast the inflation storm AND hope the fed pivots/reduces rates rather quickly.
Willshire 5000 to GDPIn contrast to the Wilshire 5000, the numerator in the chart above includes the total value of public and private equities. However, it only gets published quarterly and therefore is always lagging a bit behind. On the upside, it has data going back to the 1940s, thereby providing a more historical perspective.