CHN50 still on an trend correctionCHN50 has a possibility of testing both of our Vertical and Horizontal Support before the Uptrend channel could continue its a matter of few days before we could see a trend continuation
XIN9 trade ideas
ChinaA50 - Blood on the streets already?The Chinese stock market is not for everyone, however, could it be an opportunity to invest when others are fearful? I am putting this down for my own record so that I can look back a year from now to see if I'm right on this one.
There has been 3 rather major bear markets since Mr Xi Jinping came into power in 2013: a bear in 2015, 2018 and now 2021, is it a coincidence that the bulls are being reigned in about once every 3 years? Just an interesting observation.
After the latest curb on online educational companies which sent even more investors stampeding out of the Chinese markets last week ("throwing the baby out with the bathwater"), I am now seeing a confluence of supports right now where the China A50 chart tested the low last week(at ~14500) :
1. The current crash EF being the 100% projection of AB (the 2015 "crash")
2. 14500 is the 50% fib retracement of the major BE swing up (from low of 2105 to the peak in Feb 2021)
3. 14500-15000 zone is a long term resistence turned support area
4. a bullish divergence between Price and RSI is now forming on the monthly and weekly charts.
I suspect it is already bottoming at these levels though it may still be months before confidence can come back in for it to take off again (however watch out in 2024??). This is just for the sake of TA discussion. :)
Disclaimer: TA is about improving our odds of a successful trade (not a guarantee). This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Thank you. Do give me a thumbs up if you agree. Feel free to let me know what you think! :)
CHINA A50 - Asia led the recent Decline, it will againThe WMP - Chinese Wealth Management Product system is quite possibly the grandest Ponzi Scheme
within recorded history of the world.
Investors have adopted the belief - WMPs' are identical to a Bank Deposit, backed by the Bank that sells them.
China's CCP uses the WMPs as a funding mechanism for it's Agenda in Business - Funding Projects with the
Peoples Money... China holds $1.81 Trillion in Foreign Reserves, it could provide a level of Fractional assistance,
but it cannot.
The Capital or more accurately the WMP Ponzi is well over $12 Trillion in creation at this moment.
Evergrande... slammed the breaks on the effort, the loss of confidence placed a serious doubt in Chinese
Investors' minds as to whether or not their WMP "Deposit" is Safe.
Clearly, it is not as the CCP had to step in with guarantees, originally $20 Billion.
It has ballooned to $300 Billion.
As these projects were securitized and sold... Foreign Investors wanted in on the Pyramid.
Everyone from Wells to BoA to Crypto "Tethers" purchased these Instruments.
GSCO is only too happy to provide a market in the JUNK as is JPM and a great many other US
Firms.
The attendant effects of this disruptive failure to deliver on Loan Payments created a large
amount of Selling within US Markets as the Losses began to accumulate.
The A50 will provide us clear indications as to the next downturn for US Equities as well. ASIA
and the US does not diverge for very long when it comes to Capital Markets...
One to Watch - contagion risks.
Many of you are probably born after the 1987 Crush. I was at my Desk @ Drexel, it began in
Germany and ended up here in mere seconds, watched it LIVE.
Contagions can be quite nasty and arrive at any moment.
- HK
PERFECT BUY THE DIP SETUP/EXAMPLE !! STOCK MARKET EDITION A50 - Monthly
Recent factors impacting the Asian markets, have included worries of financial system contagion from a deeply leveraged Evergrande , regulatory crackdown across several industries, and continued trade tensions. Nevertheless, one is beginning to see some indications of a bullish bullish divergence on the charts
Break and Retest - Prices are likely to rebound to the breakout level, which should now serve as support and draw buying activity in the case of a bullish break and retest
Ascending Triangle - The ascending triangle pattern is a bullish pattern that indicates the market is consolidating following an upswing, having buyers still very much in control. As the wedge narrows, the occurrence of higher lows signals that a breakout is impending.
Hidden Bullish Divergence - When the oscillator produces a higher high or lower low while the price movement does not, this is known as hidden divergence. Hidden bullish divergence develop during a corrective or consolidation phase in an uptrend
Sell Wall - A sell wall occurs when a high number of sell orders are made at the same time at any price level. Asset prices can be suppressed and forced to trade within a specific range due to sell walls. Since we have broken and now are retesting this sell wall its a very low risk entry
CN50USD 1D : NEED TO BREAK RESISTNACE TO DISABLE H&SHello Everyone, If You Like The Idea You Can Support With A Like And Comment .
Keep In Mind ❗
🟣 Purple structure -> Higher TimeFrame Structure.
🟢 Green structure -> Daily Structure.
⚫️ Grey structure -> 4h Structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> <4h Structure.
Important : Please Use RM (Risk Management) and MM (Money Management) If You Decide To Use My Ideas, There Will Always Be Unprofitable Ideas, This Will Definitely Happen, The Goal Of The System Is That There Will Be More Profitable Ideas At A Distance.
ChinaA50 - The begining of a new bull?I published on 3rd Aug that I am looking at the support of around 14450 for ChinaA50 (representative of Chinese market of top 50 stocks). So far, the support has been holding.
In fact, I am getting more convinced that the Chinese market has found support (although another retest of 14450 is still possible until a trend is safely underway) and is getting more optimistic about China market.
This is because, besides TA, there is just so much pessimism and skepticism about the Chinese market right now and this is usually when the bear ends and a bull quietly begins... That said, it may still be another couple of months away before any optimism become more apparent.
Ok, this is just my theory and years of observations of the market.
Let's see how it plays out!
p/s I'm accumulating some CQQQ (Chinese Tech ETF) for mid to longer term play.
Disclaimer: TA is about improving our odds of a successful trade (not a guarantee). This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Thank you. Do give me a thumbs up if you agree. Feel free to let me know what you think! :)
CN50USD - Still has further to fall to break the UpTrend. CN50USD - Still has further to fall to break the UpTrend.
Unfolding Evergrande crisis may take up to 12 months to fully blow up as crisis that takes the World's economy down..
Like the LTCM or Subprime crisis, took 12 months to fully realize as the Asian financial crisis and GFC respectively.
Contagion risks Contagion risk is just too great. Evergrande has no update after 2 days of halt is over and this technically triggers the SUSPENSION status under HKex rule. China stocks' overleverage is a systemic issue. Those banks that made the decision to lend, did so under provincial officials encouragement, who are 'encouraged' are the developers. Everyone win-win. Now the buyers are closing their wallets for residential units, and the boss has already channelled the money, who is left with the hot potatoes?
WILL THE CHINESE DRAGON RISE FROM THE BOTTOM TO NEW HIGHS? The recent fire sales on Chinese futures (HSI, Shanghai Composite and CN50) has investors panicking on whether to pull out or buy the dips.
My opinion:
Recent crackdown on big Crown Jewels has the retail investors going crazy, as when will the Chinese Government (CCP) stop intervening with the financial markets. Truth is, they will always control to prevent unfair monopoly competition and stock manipulation like the hedgies in USA.
As a result of anti-monopoly regulations and other policies to improve fair competition and boosts innovation, CCP sent all Chinese stocks down to at least 30% or more.
What will I do:
It all boils down to risk management, when trading futures! Recently, the chart has shown a beautiful double bottom.
However, there is still uncertainty on whether the bears will come sending another shockwave to new lows for all Chinese futures.
That will depend on CCP's decision whether to further implement more policies to regulate the Chinese market.
I think this might be a fantastic opportunity to get them at a discount. In addition, there is no way for us to time the market, as will the Chinese futures find another bottom or having a reversal.
Hence, I use risk management to bet on the long side for futures and Chinese companies. I meant Chinese companies that has good fundamentals and is known in the Chinese market. Will the Chinese dragon rise from the bottom to new highs, that's a question we all want to know! Time will tell...
China market is not crashing as the rumours say !I know the recent news from China on clamping down the Chinese Tech stocks have hit some of the stocks like Alibaba, Tencents, Meituan, Didi, etc hard.
If you are a short term trader ,then either you find shorting opportunity or you won't be too happy with going long. However, if you are hold a long term view on China market like me, then this news is GOOD NEWS as it brings down the prices of these great fundamentally sound companies to a more affordable price. I can buy it cheaper than before.
China is currently underperforming compared to US market where the earnings have scored a wide margin this year , thus bringing the S&P500 and the other indices to a new high.
Well, I could be wrong but I am betting that the 2nd half of the 2021 market may give China stock market a boost while US market is likely to undergo some correction. Why ? Inflation is a big issue that the FEDs are concerned about. They have to step in sooner than later to raise interest rates or cut down or their bond purchase program.
Now, if my prediction is right, then now would be a good time to enter the China stock market, both indices and fundamentally strong stocks.
CN50 mid-termFTSE China A50 index was launched in 2003 and it represents a benchmark for the equities markets in mainland China. The FTSE China A50 tracks the performance of the 50 largest A-shares, in terms of market capitalisation, which are incorporated and traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges.
The index does not include Alibaba, Tencent and other tech giants.
