FBMKLCI trade ideas
FBMKLCI short term bull startedFBMKLCI still in down trend, but it have chance to go up in short term.
Malaysia - Still Waters Run DeepAs Q2 2019 is underway, global financial markets have experienced a melt-up in assets prices, with some markets up over 20 percent year-to-date. However, despite the run in global asset prices, there is one country that has missed out on the rally, and that is Malaysia.
Malaysian equities ( EWM ) (INDEX:KLSE) have declined -3.77% in 2019, taking the mantle as the worst performing equity market this year so far. To further complicate matters, the yield on the Malaysian 10-year government bond has risen to 3.932% as of this post, up from 3.81% in March. Lastly, the Malaysian Ringgit has weakened by 1.92% percent in April 2019, loosing 0.08% against the US Dollar for the year, and forecast to fall further.
Under-performance in Malaysian assets in recent trading sessions can be attributed to the fact that global investors are worried that Malaysian bonds may be removed from the FTSE Russel, a key global bond index for international investors. If this were to occur, Malaysian credit markets would see billions of dollars in outflows, in conjunction with a spike in yields, as investors flee the market en masse.
However, the under-performance of Malaysian assets in 2019 can be attributed to recent downgrades in Malaysian gross domestic product (“GDP”) by the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”). The IMF downgraded the country’s GDP to 4.5% for 2019, down from 4.7% as stated in their prior forecasts. Growth is expected to slow this year as uncertainty stemming from the US-China trade war is expected to put further pressure on Malaysian exports. Furthermore, on a micro level, the threat of elevated household debt among Malaysian households is also lurking in the background. With household debt-to-GDP levels hovering around 83% in 2018, some of the highest in South East Asia, there is worry that leveraged households who have taken large sums of debt for real estate investment and consumption may have difficulty servicing their existing debt. This is especially worrisome in the midst of a slowing economy. Thus, there is risk that elevated household debt could add further pressure to future economic growth, and threaten economic stability within the Malaysia, if it continues on its current trajectory.
As a result, due to these ongoing internal macroeconomic and financial headwinds, we are bearish on Malaysian assets and caution investors to tread lightly within this space.
Malaysia - Still Waters Run DeepAs Q2 2019 is underway, global financial markets have experienced a melt-up in assets prices, with some markets up over 20 percent year-to-date. However, despite the run in global asset prices, there is one country that has missed out on the rally, and that is Malaysia.
Malaysian equities ( EWM ) (INDEX:KLSE) have declined -3.77% in 2019, taking the mantle as the worst performing equity market this year so far. To further complicate matters, the yield on the Malaysian 10-year government bond has risen to 3.932% as of this post, up from 3.81% in March. Lastly, the Malaysian Ringgit (USDMYR) has weakened by 1.92% percent in April 2019, loosing 0.08% against the US Dollar for the year, and forecast to fall further.
Under-performance in Malaysian assets in recent trading sessions can be attributed to the fact that global investors are worried that Malaysian bonds may be removed from the FTSE Russel, a key global bond index for international investors. If this were to occur, Malaysian credit markets would see billions of dollars in outflows, in conjunction with a spike in yields, as investors flee the market en masse.
However, the under-performance of Malaysian assets in 2019 can be attributed to recent downgrades in Malaysian gross domestic product (“GDP”) by the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”). The IMF downgraded the country’s GDP to 4.5% for 2019, down from 4.7% as stated in their prior forecasts. Growth is expected to slow this year as uncertainty stemming from the US-China trade war is expected to put further pressure on Malaysian exports. Furthermore, on a micro level, the threat of elevated household debt among Malaysian households is also lurking in the background. With household debt-to-GDP levels hovering around 83% in 2018, some of the highest in South East Asia, there is worry that leveraged households who have taken large sums of debt for real estate investment and consumption may have difficulty servicing their existing debt. This is especially worrisome in the midst of a slowing economy. Thus, there is risk that elevated household debt could add further pressure to future economic growth, and threaten economic stability within the Malaysia, if it continues on its current trajectory.
As a result, due to these ongoing internal macroeconomic and financial headwinds, we are bearish on Malaysian assets and caution investors to tread lightly within this space.
Did KLCI found its bottom on recent low?FBM KLCI has been reaching it record low in 2019 while the FBM small cap has been been on a small up trend.
The main reason where KLCI has been dropping tremendously was due to the crash of the banking sector due to the estimated interest rate drop in the future
Therefore the money has been float out from both banking sector and Malaysia and RM has been weakening recently.
From technical wise of view we can see that the chart of KLCI has some shadow around the 1610 area which might possibly found it temporary support
but to regain the confirmation of rebound we would required a green candle next week.
If the Malaysia Government would like to re-activate on the construction project which on hold the economy of the country might recover in the future which might benefit the KLCI index too.
Solely for education purpose without any buy or sell recommendation.
KLCI nak ke selatanLihat pada chart weekly KLCI
3 sebab dia boleh turun lagi
1. break 61.8% line fibo menuju ke area 78.6%
2. MACD histogram dah ada bar bawah line 0, breaktrendline macd histogram, dan sudah ada bearish line crossover
3. RSi below line 50, break trendline dan mungkin menuju line 20.
FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA KLCI Update 17/04/2019FBM KLCI is standing at the support 1616 pt. This support line is the lowest since 2016 and if breakout downwards would see a support at 1548 pts.
On top of that, FBM KLCI is forming the Elliott 5th Wave downwards, we will see a reversal pattern or breakout of support at 1610 pts.
SUMMARY:
Downward -> Support at 1548 pts
Upward -> Resistance at 1729 pts
Malaysia Stock Market FBMKLCI "Asian Tiger" a Long Journey to goThe Malaysia FBMKLCI entered into a Long Term Downtrend since last year 2018 in the month of September the index formed a Deathly Crossover of the 3 lines applied. Since then the index had it's momentum hammered all the way downward from 1,826 to 1.626 lowest in the month of December 2018. As the global market starts to recover entering into the Year 2019 on wards the Malaysia FBMKLCI definitely need to follow suit by having its recovery from its lowest 1, 626 towards its highest 1,732 in the month of February 2019. In the month of February 2019 the FBMKLCI hits its crucial resistant which is the (red line) and since then the index retraced from that high towards 1,664 in the month of March 2019.
The Malaysia FBMKLCI continues to maintain in its Long Term Downtrend scenario unless 2 key level of resistant have been achieved in the near term:
1) 1,700 psychological resistant level
2) 1,760 crucial point of resistant level
Once these 2 level of resistant have been achieved the Malaysia will then only be on its right track moving towards "Asian Tiger" journey which is now far to be seen yet.
The Malaysia FBMKLCI Downside risk level:
1) 1,626 the immediate support level.
Index performance does not guarantee your portfolio of stocks performance. Stocks will have their own individual performance. Views shared on the FBMKLCI does not recommend a buy/sell on the general KLSE stocks decision
FKLI - Start of a bear market?FKLI Technical Update
- after the recent break of consolidation phase
- Market now at risks of breaking below a very critical ascending Trend line starting early year 2010.
- Critical Support seen at 1657.78 for KLCI
- Critical support for FKLISP at 1655
- A successful closing below this "critical support" is a strong selling signal, possibly signals the start of a bear market.
- For 1st mover, a sell stop below 1654 to 1654.50, do note setting a sell stop is risky. sell stop limit may help to prevent filled prices from slipping.
- Meanwhile safe short would be to wait for a successful closing below "critical support, pending a Inverted U pullback, with "new high below 1657.78 or below 1655 for FKLI.
Disclaimer : Idea sharing only, trade at your own risk
FBMKLCI -I am looking at a Monthly chart for FBMKLCI,- showing a strong repetition on the past history of Double Top Chart Pattern from 1994-1997 and now forming another Double Top Chart Pattern 2014-2018.
Sector behaviour despite KLCI went to previous supports.Despite KLCI went to 1628 to previous support, we are looking at the sectors that behave differently. The top 4 sectors are; Technology, Construction, Small Cap and Industrial Products.
Timeframe : YTD.
FBM KLCI expected go high this week and aheadKLCI now settle down to support and creating the double bottom. If this support can hold, expected KLCI will go higher this week and test the previous high trend.
If KLCI can break up the trend and will continue bullish for this month
Possible Head and Shoulder formation for KLCIPossible head and Shoulder in the making.
There is a strong support at 1600 area
Kadar kenaikan 2 bulan yang lepas bagi indeks FBMKLCI kekal utuhFBMKLCI kini menunjukkan penurunan nilai yang kecil di bawah bacaan 38.20% dalam Anjakan Fibonacci. Secara teknikal, ini merupakan tindak balas yang normal berikutan pemulihan nilai yang dapat dilihat dalam empat sesi yang lepas.
Walau bagaimanapun, selagi tiada tanda kemerosotan yang signifikan, kami percaya bahawa kenaikan indeks selama 2 bulan ini masih lagi menunjukkan tanda-tanda yang memberangsangkan. Carta menunjukkan nilai sokongan terhampir di paras 1,700 mata, diikuti oleh rintangan segera yang berhampiran garis aliran menurun pada sekitar paras 1,750 mata.
Bagi tinjauan jangka masa pendek, pengunduran kecil adalah normal di bawah paras 38.20% Anjakan Fibonacci. Manakala bagi tinjauan jangka masa panjang, kami anggarkan sentimen pasaran akan bertambah pulih. Anggaran ini disokong oleh corak "Perbezaan Positif", yang mencadangkan pembetulan harga baru-baru ini bakal berakhir.
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FBMKLCI: Hari Pertama yang merisaukanFBMKLCI di buka tinggi pada permulaan dagangan tetapi telah di tutup hampir pada paras terendah harian 1668.11 turun -25.4 mata. jika trend ini berterusan, ia amatlah tidak baik untuk FBMKLCI, jika indeks di buka esok di bawah paras 1670, maka FBMKLCI sekali lagi jaruh di bawah paras sokongan garisan arah aliran dinamik. apa yang merisaukan ialah, jika ia berterusan jatuh, ditambah pula dengan momentum yang besar dan kuat, ini akan memungkinkan indek telah jatuh di bawah neckline corak head and shoulder, dan paras sasaran berikutnya adalah berkemungkinan di bawah paras 1300 kalau mengikut sasaran X2X.
Untuk itu, saya suka mengajak para pelabur dan pedagang untuk monitor saham saham yang mempunyai market capitalisation yang tinggi seperti PBBANK, MAYBANK, TENAGA dan PCHEM untuk melihat kemana kah arah tujuan indek semasa. Ini adalah kerana jika Indeks betul akan jatuh, maka, saham saham yang mempunyai market capitalisation yang besar inilah yang akan menjadi penyebab kejatuhan FBMKLCI.
December Always Positive for indexsSetiap tahun KLCI akan di tutup positif pada bualan December. Kecuali pada tahun 2014. Pada tahun 2018 ini, nampaknya KLCI akan di tutup positif juga.
Kebiasaannya ianya akan terus positif sehingga hari raya Cina. Indeks cuba untuk melepasi paras rintangan 1780 dan akan di tutup di atas 1700 mata sebelum 2018 melabuhkan tirainya. InsyaAllah
