FTTUSDT trade ideas
How To Know When To Quit (Part 1/2)Hello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Splitting this article in 2 parts because it’s dense and I don’t want to lose people who might think “too much text I won’t read”
Let’s talk about:
– Cognitive biases
– Decision-making
1. Be at ease with a bad outcome
Focus on the decision-making process instead.
Think in probability and play to the best of your hand.
Don’t dwell on a bad outcome if the process and decision-making were sound.
You have no control over outcomes when luck is involved.
Embrace uncertainty.
Understand that you have to get down to what do I have control over, and what don’t I have control over.
And I have to accept the tremendous influence of luck, I have to accept the fact that I’m having to make these very high-stakes decisions without being able to accurately predict where the candles are going.
2. Advice from Eric Seidel: Do not dwell on unlucky events
Eric Seidel is a 9-time world series of poker bracelet winner who made $40 million.
By all means, discuss what could have been done better.
If you played to the best of your "cards", that’s all that matters.
He goes, “I don’t want to hear about it if there’s not a question. I don’t care that you got unlucky.
I get unlucky too.
And I have to deal with losing with two jacks against two nines all the time also.
I certainly don’t want to take on your emotional trash about it myself.
And what’s the point of talking about it? You made a great call and lost, who cares?
Would you have changed anything about what you did? Do you think you got the read wrong?
It sounds to me like you did everything right. So why are we even talking about this?
I mean this is the thing, if it really was just bad luck, who cares?
This is about embracing that uncertainty, right?”
3. All decisions are probabilistic
And we make these probabilistic decisions all the time.
Consciously or subconsciously.
Whether its choosing your partner or the route you are taking to work.
You’re making a forecast.
The moment we make it explicit, we start to create feedback loops we can learn from.
Even if you don’t think you’re doing it explicitly, literally every single decision you make is probabilistic, because it’s a forecast.
It’s a forecast made under conditions where you don’t have all the facts.
You generally know very little in comparison to all there is to be known.
We have to reject the idea that if you’re not doing it explicitly, that you aren’t thinking probabilistically because every decision is a probabilistic decision just by its nature because the world is probabilistic, that is how we decide.
Now the act of trying to make these things explicit will make you better at it, because what it will start to do is allow you to create good feedback loops.
4. Don’t trade if you don’t have an edge
And we are very good at fooling ourselves into believing that we have an edge.
Set up structures, write down your thesis.
What new information will break your thesis?
When should you quit?
I think we’re very good at fooling ourselves into believing that we have a rational reason, that we have an edge.
And I think that that’s particularly so when we’re in a situation where the thesis would affirm other things that we already believe about the world.
I think it’s particularly so when we’re already in the investment/trade.
So one of the things that we need to do is set up structures around us that will allow us, first of all, to be better at those, are we really being rational and starting… but more importantly, because the starting decision is always uncertain, is to say, as we discover new information after we’ve started, are we stopping, right?
Are we figuring out when we should stop?
Because it turns out that we’re very, very dense when it comes to actually paying attention to the signals after we’ve started something that we ought to stop it.
And that’s where we get particularly irrational.
Quotes of the day
“Pain is temporary. Quitting lasts forever.” ― Lance Armstrong
“The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance“ ― Ed Seykota
"Confidence is not “I will profit on this trade.” Confidence is “I will be fine if I don’t profit from this trade." ― Yvan Byeajee
I'll post the second part tomorrow
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave
FTTUSDT | IMPORTANT LEVELSFTTUSDT has been in a strong bearish trend . the price has broken below some major support.
Now on shorter time frame the price has managed to hold an important support zone .
the price is currently trading near falling resistance.
The bulls need to break above it.
Manage your trades accordingly.
FTT 22$ suport fail I learned from @TexasWestCapital that the future news can be seen in the chart ( "Others say this: Show me the chart and I'll tell you the news" ) I have this level's for several months ... and
I have been looking at the $22 support for a while. I was paying attention if the support holds and the volume increases, for me it was a signal to buy. BUT now i watch 9$ area if hold, next is $3,4 - $4
Sure it's better to do your job and DYOR. This is not financial advice... just my view and can be wrong.
Is FTT the next LUNA?Welcome to the Crypto Matrix.
Some may call it FUD, some may call it a valid independent view: Alameda, the subsidiary of FTX totally lost control. Looking at the board of Alameda, you can see numerous "kids" - yes I would call them kids, as they obviously did not hear the bell ringing yet - trying to CEO'ing and CTO'ing and wtf else, but obviously dont have any clue about financials. What must have come to their mind to back cash liabilities of roughly 7bn in their balance sheet with unlocked FTT, which in amount exceeds the actual circulating supply of the token?! I mean, even for those guys, who have no clue about a balance sheet, must have known, that you cannot back your liabilities with nothing. The more and more you see those kids, imo is totally loosing any trust in any VC out of Silicon Valley related to crypto.
Where does FTT find support? Actually, there is a huge buywall around 15, but as you may know: buywalls are usually bearish. Seems to be something like catching a falling knife, imo atm
welcome to the matrix 2.0
Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on Nov 9 2022The market fell dramatically last night due to the FTX' bearishness. It eventually ended with the founder going bankrupt and Binance acquiring FTX. FTT was eventually counter-voted by the market because it was heavily staked for SBF' shorting. But other unrelated tokens undoubtedly belonged to the wrong side of the equation. BTC fell to around 17,000. Refresh the new low of this round of bear market.
The five-wave low has been mentioned many times and will not be lower than the previous low. ETH only fell back to the September horizontal range. Other tokens even spit back the November rise, even the horizontal range did not fail to, just time appeared in the morning 3:30. It is difficult to grasp, but does not affect the long-term position. Now it increases to 7-8%, again pulling down the cost of positions. After all, at the end of the bear, chips than short-term floating earnings are much more important.
According to the previous thought, the long-term half position long a single hold unmoved. Short-term positions in October after a sharp rise, it is easy to do to keep profits out. With the market down to 17000, leaving the short-term funds to plunge into the bottom, the total position of the maximum is not more than 80%. So far, the long-term layout has been basically completed. After the operation is not much difficulty, the test of only patience.
FTT is Next Luna !!!I told everyone in the last Analyze FTT will Dump... CZ Mission is Done..!
One of the reasons the market will dump more is FTT,
Look at the chart everything is clear on chart if it can reclaim to 20, the next target is 4.77 and may lower...
please share your opinion in the comments
I consider all analyses performed in relation to that trade position.
Our analysis is not a buy or sell referral.
If you found our analysis useful and interesting, feel free to share it so that more individuals might benefit from it.
And please don't forget to like and comment; we will read them all.
FTT/USDT - November 09Yesterday FTX token was dumped very badly because there are not good news for this token. It has broken its main support of 10.00 and dumped to 2.51 .
It should break its main resistance of 10.00 which has very less chances. There could be some pump but it will be for bull trap. Its bearish till any good news from Binance and FTX Deal.
Anyway our target was achieved yesterday and there is only one hope for this coin and that is Binance.
If no good news then it will be new LUNA and market will be dumped as well. Only good news can push it up otherwise there are very low chances that it can go up.
Note
Please never follow anyone blindly and always remember following key points:
1- First and Last thing in trading is patience.
2- Risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly.
3- Please Don't think I'm always right. I could be wrong, same as every other trader.
4- I always posted my thoughts, not financial advice.
5- Please use your mind and try to get knowledge about market. It will help you in future
Thank you and Good Luck!
Short FTT
Hi all,
In my opinion, FTT prices will go down quite fast because of the following indicators:
Fundamental news: CZ started to sell FTT and this triggered a fall of FTX and its crypto; Investors/FTX's users are loosing their trust.
Technical Analysis: Both MFI and CMF broke the trendlines.
The proposed TPs and SLs are in chart.
All the best!
Does FTT go to zero?hi! I hope you are well
Note: Don't forget capital management and stop loss setting
Note: This scenario is probable and not certain.
Considering the negative news that has been published for this coin, it is better to consider this correction as a wave of great magnitude.
Due to the pessimism of this currency among traders and the exit of its investor, Binance, this currency can remain bearish in the medium term.
I have identified two important supports for the not-too-distant future.
🔥 CZ: The Mastermind That Brought Down FTX And Then Bought ItThe past two days have been a true rollercoaster. Please click the tweets for a full overview.
In short:
- FTX is closely related to Alameda, since Alameda provides a big part of the liquidity to FTX
- Rumors are spreading that Alameda has a hole in their balance sheet, FTX is potentially insolvent
- CZ adds oil on the fire by announcing the sale of Binance's FTT tokens
- Investors panic and remove their funds from FTX
- FTX actually goes insolvent, pulls liquidity from FTT and appeared to have stopped processing withdrawals
- CZ (CEO of Binance) steps in and signs an agreement to take over FTX for a fraction of the value it had a couple of days ago. Investors removed their funds, so it was a cheap acquisition of a company in distress.
CZ played 5d chess and won. GG.