US100 NASDAQ TRADE IDEA 24 MARCH 2025The Nasdaq 100 (US100) recently broke below its long-term ascending channel, signaling a potential shift in market structure. A Break of Structure (BOS) around the 19,800 level suggests that sellers are taking control, with a possible retest of the 19,700 - 20,200 supply zone before further downside. The price action indicates a liquidity grab above 20,758, followed by strong bearish momentum, confirming institutional participation. Additionally, a fair value gap (FVG) between 19,000 - 18,155.9 suggests that price may seek to fill this imbalance before reaching demand at 18,155.9 - 17,699.3, with a deeper support zone at 16,572.0 acting as a key target for bearish continuation.
From a fundamental perspective, ongoing US-China trade tensions, particularly restrictions on semiconductor exports, could weigh on major tech stocks such as Nvidia and AMD. If China retaliates with bans on rare-earth metal exports, it could disrupt global supply chains, further pressuring the Nasdaq 100. Additionally, Federal Reserve policy uncertainty plays a crucial role. If inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed may delay rate cuts, leading to higher bond yields, which typically make riskier tech stocks less attractive. This environment could drive further downside for Nasdaq-listed companies. Moreover, the upcoming earnings season presents another risk. If major tech firms like Apple, Microsoft, and Google report weaker-than-expected earnings or issue cautious forward guidance, investor sentiment could deteriorate, accelerating the bearish trend.
Given this confluence of technical and fundamental factors, a short trade setup becomes favorable. The ideal entry would be around the 19,700 - 20,200 supply zone, with a stop-loss above 20,500 to invalidate the bearish setup. Take profit targets include 18,155.9 (first demand zone), 17,699.3 (major liquidity level), and 16,572.0 (higher timeframe support and strong demand zone). However, if price reclaims 20,500+, a bullish reversal may occur, with potential upside towards 22,138.3. This trade aligns both Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and supply and demand principles, while also factoring in macroeconomic risks that could influence Nasdaq 100 price action in the coming weeks.
