US30 is in downtrendUS30 is in downtrend on hourly chart price is making higher highs and lower highs, current levels are good for shorting price has taken a correction and know showing bearish signs.
US30 trade ideas
Dow: Key data, earnings and US election all coming upStocks rebounded on Monday with oil prices taking a 5% plunge, amid an apparent easing in Middle East tension. The restrained reaction by Israel after recent attacks has spurred optimism, with markets hoping for stability in the region. European indices closed higher as we begin a very busy two weeks, with lots of data, US election and central banks meetings on the way.
Treasury yields could take toll on stocks
With the 10-year rising to a new 3-month month high of 4.29%, this could unravel risk assets. Having just closed lower for the fifth consecutive day, resulting in a weekly loss of more than 2.5%, the Dow could be the one to watch for potential underperformance. Small caps also slumped last week, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished flattish, helped by Tesla’s earnings and Nvidia surging to a new record high.
Looking under the hood, financials (XLF) led the drop on Friday with a fall of 1.1% and nearly 2.1% for the week. Industrials (XLI) lost 2.8% on the week, while energy (XLE) lost 0.6% on the week and ensured a hattrick of weekly losses. Technology (XLK) was flat on the week, while semiconductor (SMH) rose 0.6%. Once again gold outperformed with GLD rising 0.8% last week.
With financials and industrials taking the biggest hit, and energy also not doing great, the Dow and Russell are the obvious markets for the bears to potentially target, if sentiment turns sour again.
Economic Data Points to Slower Rate Cuts
Last week’s stronger economic indicators have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may take a measured approach to future rate cuts, but will that change in the week ahead with some top-tier data to come including JOLTS, non-farm payrolls and ISM surveys? Last week’s data releases—such as jobless claims, services PMI, and durable goods orders— all surpassed forecasts, suggesting economic resilience. If we see a similar outcome from most of this week’s data releases, then that could even raise question marks over further rate cuts beyond the two more priced in for this year, as the Fed may be more inclined to wait and see before easing policy further.
While a strong economy supports corporate earnings, it can also sustain higher yields, which may weigh on stock valuations. As a result, traders and investors are closely watching incoming data to gauge whether the Fed will indeed adopt a more gradual approach to rate reductions.
US Election Uncertainty Adds Pressure
The US presidential election is also in focus, with polls and odds markets showing a close race. Some betting markets are leaning toward a Trump victory, while other polls show a tie. A Trump win could have inflationary implications, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve’s approach to rate policy. Given Trump’s policies, investors may anticipate a more aggressive Fed response to manage potential inflation, which could affect stock prices and increase market volatility.
The uncertain outcome has led investors to adopt a cautious stance, with many waiting to see how the election results may influence the Fed's future policy decisions and overall market sentiment. This has been evident in markets falling last week, VIX rising and gold hitting new record highs.
Upcoming Earnings and Economic Reports
As we head into a pivotal week and a half, several high-impact events could shape market direction. Investors are bracing for a series of earnings reports from major companies, often referred to as the "Magnificent 7" stocks, alongside the US monthly jobs report. These, combined with the US election on November 5, represent a series of risk events that could sway investor sentiment.
Given the recent increase in yields, strong economic data, and the close election race, it is unlikely we’ll see investors rush to buy the dips. For now, a cautious approach may be warranted as investors navigate these uncertainties and await clearer signals for the market’s direction.
Week ahead: Jolts, BoJ, NFP and lots of earnings
There are at least a couple of major macro factors that could impact the Dow this week, while on a micro level, several tech names are reporting their results.
1) JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday)
With the Fed’s focus turning to employment, we will give preference to any labour market indicators over other data releases in the next couple of months. Though this data release is not very up to date (with this one covering August), it can still impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment, and they usually take a few months to be filled. Last time we saw a surprisingly strong print of 8.04 million, aiding the dollar’s rally.
2) US nonfarm payrolls (Friday)
Last month’s surprisingly good nonfarm payrolls data helped to fuel a big rally in the dollar as the market was forced to drop its calls for further outsized rate cuts from the Fed. Let’s see if those numbers will be revised and whether the strength in the labour market continued for another month. Any further strength in employment data could even call into question the now lower expectations of 50 basis points worth of more rate cuts in the next two FOMC meetings in 2024. This will undoubtedly move the Dow and other US indices too.
Dow key levels to watch
The technical Dow forecast has turned a tad bearish following last week’s drop. The last weekly drop of a similar magnitude took place in early September. That time, though, there was no immediate election risk, and so the index quickly bounced back and went on to hit new records in the pursuing weeks. This time, it could be different. Still, we will need to see a lower low to confirm the bearish reversal beneath the last short-term low at 41,800.
If seen, we could see a sizeable drop with the next obvious support not seen until around 40,900 to 41,000 area. The longer-term trend line and 200-day average converge around the psychologically important area of 40,000.
Standing in the way of these potential support levels is another one close to where the market finished on Friday and where it has staged a bounced from today, around 42,000.
In terms of resistance levels to watch, the most important one in my view lies at 42,400 to 42,500. This area is now pivotal insofar as the short-term technical outlook is concerned.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
US30 BUY ANALYSIS SUPPORT LEVEL Hello Trader . What do you think about US30 ? Here on US30 price make support around area of 42316.1 zone which is likely to reverse to complete a resistance level before making a change there for trader should go for LONG and target profit around resistance area. Remember to like and share your thought on comment!
US30 - Dow Jones IndustrialThe week’s key economic updates kick off tomorrow with the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Market Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which is anticipated to provide new insights into labor market dynamics.
In its previous report, JOLTS indicated a 4.3% increase in job openings, bringing the total to 8.04 million. However, hiring, layoffs, and resignations all saw a decline, aligning with the Federal Reserve's decision to implement a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
For the upcoming September report, analysts predict job openings will decrease by 0.6%, reaching 7.99 million.
Additionally, the Conference Board will release its October Consumer Confidence report. Of particular interest will be the job confidence component, as it could offer a complementary perspective to JOLTS findings.
The day will also see the release of the Case-Shiller report, the first of several upcoming housing market indicators. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the 20-city composite index for August is expected to show a moderation in home price growth, down to 5.0% year-over-year from the previous 5.9%.
Dow Jones Wave Analysis 11 November 2024
- Dow Jones rising inside impulse wave 5
- Likely to reach resistance level 45000.00
Dow Jones index continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 5, which previously broke the key resistance level 43500.00 and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from August.
The active impulse wave 5 belongs to the weekly upward impulse sequence (C) from April of this year.
Given the clear weekly uptrend, Dow Jones index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 45000.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 5).
US30 Trendline Breakout AnalysisRecently, US30 (the Dow Jones Industrial Average) broke through a key resistance trendline, signaling a potential shift in market momentum. Here’s why we think this breakout is significant and why the index may continue to rise:
Positive Economic Indicators: Recent economic data has shown resilience, with strong corporate earnings reports and steady employment numbers, reducing fears of an imminent recession. These factors boost investor confidence, attracting buying pressure and supporting upward price movement.
Lower Interest Rate Concerns: With inflation showing signs of cooling, the Federal Reserve may ease on aggressive rate hikes, which typically weigh on equities. The market often rallies when the outlook on interest rates is more favorable, as it lowers borrowing costs and encourages investment in riskier assets like equities.
Technical Breakout Confirmation: The recent breach of the resistance trendline was supported by high trading volume, which often validates the strength of a breakout. Additionally, other technical indicators, such as moving averages and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), show bullish momentum, suggesting that the breakout is not a false signal.
Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite: Investors appear to be shifting toward a "risk-on" mode, with increased demand for growth-oriented and blue-chip stocks in the US market. This shift in sentiment often leads to further gains in major indices like the US30, especially as it represents stable, high-performing companies.
Seasonal Trends and Year-End Rally Potential: Historically, the end of the year often brings about a “Santa Claus rally” in equity markets, where stock prices trend upward due to favorable market sentiment and portfolio adjustments. This seasonal pattern may further support the US30’s upward trajectory as we approach the year-end.
Dow Jones index probabilitiesThe possibility of a fall in American economic indices in the long term is painful, but in the short term, investors will inject liquidity into the indices and there is a possibility of an increase again.
Sasha Charkhchian
11-11 US30: after the elections there is clarity for the shares. because of that there is an uptrend going on the indexes. we have placed a buy at 44530.0. we see no obstacle in taking this position but we are cautious. Our trade system gives the following score: +5 consisting of Cot Data 2, Retail sentiment -1, Seasonality 2, Trend reading 2, GDP -1, Manufacturing PMI -1, Services PMI 1, Retail Sales 1, Inflation 2, Employment Change -1 Unemployment Rate 0,
Interest Rates -1
Dow Jones temporary price reductionIn the continuation of the long-term rise of the Dow Jones, after the price correction and the temporary decrease in the price of each share, we can expect an increase in the price along with an increase in liquidity.
Sasha Charkhchian
Dow Jones Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 43900 zone, Dow Jones is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 43900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Selling outlookWe are looking at sell opportunities targeting the recently broken higher time frame swing high level, an acceleration in price to be expected towards this level as break and test retail traders will be opening buy positions to push price to the upside.
We are selling against the late buyers given that the DXY is gaining strength and the drop in Gold price is the greatest signal we can use in our advantage at the moment.
Dow Jones Priced in GoldUS Equities (priced in gold) aren't quite done yet.
Just a massive range for the past 10 years...
#gold #djia #spx #stocks #inflation #recession
Bearish Correction Expected with Key Bullish Trigger at 44270Technical Analysis
The price has increased by approximately +5.20% over the past week.
Today, a corrective move toward 43900 is expected, with a break below 43760 potentially signaling a bearish trend targeting 43350.
Alternatively, a break above 44270 would open a new bullish phase, aiming for 44400 and 44600.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 44270
Resistance Levels: 44400, 44600
Support Levels: 43900, 43760, 43350
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Correction toward 43900
Bullish Continuation above 44270
previous idea:
US30 Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for US30.
Time Frame: 17h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 44,172.7.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 44,971.3.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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SELL probability on US30SELL probability
@ the crossunder/closers below
44.060
SL -- 44.100
(( SELL prob. again below 44.140 with + - 100points SL ))
TP ¹ -- 44.000
(( Watch if reversal to entry with W%R ))
TP ² -- 43.900
(( REVERSAL ))
TP ³ -- 43.800
(( Friday lows max ))
HappyTradingWeek
Euphoria LONG for TARGET area 49-52kBased on the long term analysis market could probably top in coming months which are seasonaly strong periods for the markets called as Santa Claus rallies and early beginning of the next year in 49-52k area we could reach some turnaround point. We are now still in very nice and strong uptrend when buy on pullback is reasonable still but based on funds massive long exposure which is unprecedent I expect we are coming to the last euphoria stage for markets which may rocket the price to 50k area. I am cautios and will be looking for short entry opportunities then. Now targeting long entries.
NVIDIA joins the DowUS stock indices settled down a touch yesterday. The Dow ended unchanged. The mid-cap Russell 2000, which had soared on news of Trump’s win, pulled back a touch to close 0.4% lower. The S&P 500 added 0.7%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 1.5%. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, has fallen sharply, and is now back to levels last seen towards the end of August, not long after the yen carry-trade unwound. The majors were mixed in early trade this morning, but then turned lower. There is little in the way of significant economic data releases or earnings reports to influence market direction. It’s worth noting that NVIDIA is entering the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Intel. This should give the index an extra jolt of volatility. Bear in mind that the Dow is a price-weighted index which means the higher the stock price, the greater the influence on the index. NVIDIA is trading at an all-time high just under $150. Intel trades around $26, having recently bounced off lows last seen in September 2010. NVIDIA will rank at the top of the bottom third of the index, while Intel was bottom. The inclusion of NVIDIA comes just ahead of its next earnings update on 20th November. Bond yields have softened, pulling back from highs last seen in July. Yesterday the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, as expected. Fed Chair Powell said he was ‘feeling good’ about the economy, although he did warn that the US was on an unsustainable path as far as fiscal policy is concerned. He also made it clear that he would complete his term as Chairman which runs until 2026. The President has no power to sack him. Markets are still predicting one more 25 basis point rate cut in 2024, but the probabilities are swinging about a bit. As usual, the Fed will remain data-dependent when it comes to rate decisions, although Powell maintains that current monetary policy remains restrictive. No doubt he’s thinking of all those real estate loans that will reset next year.
US30 Is Bearish! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for US30.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 43,838.04.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 42,226.86 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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longstill in this trade going for long President Trump's win push stock market even higher and we might see more record breaking prices
US30 Awaits Bullish Confirmation Amid Seller PressureHello,
In the latest analysis, we observed a resurgence in upward momentum for the BLACKBULL:US30 . Now, a confirmation is needed above the 1-month pivot point (1M PP). Currently, the price is testing the 1-week pivot point (1W PP), with sellers still exerting considerable pressure and anticipating further downside. While it might seem counterintuitive to lean toward a bullish outlook, all indicators are pointing in that direction. However, if the 1M PP again acts as resistance, further support tests could follow.
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