DXY Should soon give way to the Silver ballistic PhaseDXY rolling over as Metals begin, finally, the Resumption of the Intermediate Cycle in Earnest
USDX trade ideas
Your current most important DXY target until...The first target scenario in my mind for DXY is the Monthly fair value gap.
Market structure is now aligned for that too to play out.
- A monthly bullish gap is present below current price (inside the monthly accumulative range)
- A weekly bullish gap is being disrespected to the downside (indicating the lack of momentum, leaving this range)
- On the daily, price respects and creates bearish PD arrays.
I'm bearish on the higher timeframes, targeting the Monthly fvg, as long as price is closing below the Daily gap outlined in the chart.
(This is not to say that there are no high quality trades on the lower time frames, such as targeting the most recent daily gap to the upside)
Ok be safe byyyyyyy
DxyThis is a technical analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on a 2-hour timeframe. The chart indicates a bearish outlook, with price currently at 105.166 and showing signs of a downtrend.
Key Observations:
1. Downtrend Confirmation:
The price has been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, suggesting bearish momentum.
2. Supply Zone (Red Box):
A red zone is marked at the top, indicating a possible resistance or supply zone.
This suggests that if the price moves back up into this area, it could face selling pressure and drop again.
3. Projected Price Action (White Box & Arrow):
The gray box below represents a potential target zone for the bearish move.
The zigzag pattern inside the box suggests a possible minor retracement before continuing downward.
Conclusion:
The analysis suggests a sell scenario if the price respects the supply zone and rejects it.
A break above the red zone would invalidate this bearish outlook.
The target area appears to be around 103.866, which aligns with a previous support level.
Would you like any modifications to this analysis?
DOLAR INDEX UPDATE: WEEK 11 OF 2025 FORECASTDOLAR INDEX UPDATE: WEEK 11 OF 2025 FORECAST
Theme: Decoding the Dollar Index’s Next Moves in 2025
Based on the weekly chart cycle, the Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to hit the following levels in Week 11 of 2025:
Upper Range: 107.6 - 108
Lower Range: 106 - 105 - 103.5
The lower range reflects the primary trend, signaling a bearish lean, while the upper range represents a short-term recovery wave. Keep an eye on these zones—2025’s twists could hinge on them!
EURUSD LTF BIASGood morning, this morning is a mixed bag of news, so we need to be cautious starting at 9. Still, the EURO is unstoppable due to the "pricing in" concept of Trump's policies. I’ll try to position myself for buys.
check the trendIf a trend change occurs within the current support level, the beginning of an upward trend will be likely. Otherwise, the continuation of the downtrend is possible.
DXY March 4 London 2 Marco backtesting the session reactionsDXY
March 4
London 2 Marco backtesting the session reactions
Price came down took sell side liquidity and rebalanced 15M FVG in Asia. Price came up to the range CE and 50 level and rejected. Price had clear targets of sell side liquidity.
Price was weaving in a wick imbalance. Price
At 2 macro Price comes up to the .70 OTE level and into a first presented FVG. Price is so heavy and should be obvious that it is a bear market.
Note- Price did not want to retrace to the previuos range however in backtesting just to the 50 on the RB 50. If truely in a bear market this is a indicator. Touches the 50 and rejects-it should.
Price came through the volume imbalance
Price came through 3 sell stops I had noted.
Price came down to ICT's FVG she noted 3 weeks ago.
Price is respecting the session 50 level.
All great learning.
Very messy chart and it for study
DXY is in a downtrendDXY is in a downtrend
Wait for a reaction at 105.61
Confirm further decline when D1 candle closes below 105.61
At that time we will have a target at the 103.4-104
#DXY #USD
DXY Dollar Index OutlookThis is my current Elliott Wave count for the DXY Dollar index. I have a couple of variations which I will share but this one sees a decline starting with a leading diagonal in red wave 1 which is close to completion. May see a pull back in red 2 before a strong move lower in 3. The alternative is a nesting 1,2,1,2. If that's the case then a strong decline could continue from here.
Restrictive monetary policy?We are still in an uptrend at dxy. This trend could continue if Trump follows through on tariffs for a number of reasons. First, tariffs could rekindle inflation, leading the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated, which could cause the dollar to strengthen. Secondly, tariffs could cause economic weakness in other countries, improving America’s relative strength, creating higher demand for the currency.
However, tariffs run the risk of dampening the U.S. economy, which could weigh on the dollar.
While Trump’s position on the dollar is contradictory—he wants it to maintain its dominance but advocates for competitive weakening to boost U.S. exports—all eyes will be watching if tariffs serve as bargain chips or materialize into new sweeping policies.
During President Trump's first term in office, we felt the sequencing of tax cuts (late 2017) and then tariffs (March 2018-August 2019) were key reasons for a strengthening dollar. In other words, the US economy had some fiscal support before tariff wars were waged.
Market participants expect the imposition of bulky tariffs would lead to a global trade war. Such a scenario will be inflationary for the US economy, which would force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer.
DXY roadmapMy predicted roadmap
Wave down in bull flag. Up (GFC flow to cash) then down for real.
Not financial advice.
DXYLooking at DXY, We can see that price is approaching the value Area correctively. What I will be looking for is a Break of the value Area and therefore wait for a continuation pattern to the downside. The 2nd scenario which I am anticipating is price bouncing from the Value Area and wait for a continuation pattern to the upside, and our first target will be at the inflection as I am looking forward for DXY to fill the gap on the Daily Timeframe.
US DOLLAR: Sell Opportunity after support breakTVC:DXY has broken below a key support zone, indicating a potential shift in momentum. The price is now retesting this zone, which previously acted as support and could serve as resistance, aligning with a potential bearish continuation.
If sellers confirm resistance at this level, the price is likely to decline further toward the 105.800 target , which aligns with a major support level. Conversely, a breakout above the zone could signal further upside.
Before considering short positions, look for bearish confirmation signals such as bearish engulfing candles, strong wicks rejecting the resistance zone, or increased selling volume.
Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
Best of luck!
DXY BULLISH BIAS|LONG|
✅DXY is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead of 105.400
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target of 106.200
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Correction vs. Upside Break: Key Thresholds at 107 and 110My primary scenario is a correction. The current wave structure suggests the completion of an motive wave forming an ‘ending diagonal.’ After testing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone, the market shows signs of a downturn. If the index settles below the nearest support (around 107), a deeper pullback toward 105 and lower becomes possible.
The alternative scenario is a breakout to the upside. The area around 110 serves as the key invalidation level for this scenario: a decisive break above 110 would indicate the potential for renewed growth.
Overall, the outlook points to a high likelihood of a correction. However, if the price breaks above 110, the bullish scenario regains relevance.
ICEUS:DXY CAPITALCOM:DXY TVC:DXY
USD - market structure.USD - market structure , this is a valid trade, that respect strategy. Is a direct trade without fractal confirmation
DXY SKYROCKETSDXY has swept old lows and taken out resting liquidity below. I expect a retracement back to the premium of the range prior to the NFP news coming up.
FOREX Forecast UPDATES! Monday Mar 3rdIn this video, we will update Sunday's forecasts for the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.In this video, we will update the forecasts for the following FX markets:
DXY Long-Term Analysis (1988-2024): Post-US Election Price CycleBased on a 36-year historical analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a clear cyclical pattern emerges in relation to U.S. election cycles.
Key Observations:
Election Year Impact:
After every U.S. election, DXY tends to move in one clear direction (either bullish or bearish) for the first 1 to 2 years.
Reversal Phase:
Following this initial move, the next 1 to 2 years typically see a reversal, where the price trends in the opposite direction of the first phase.
Consistent Historical Trend:
This pattern has repeated consistently across multiple election cycles since 1988, making it a significant factor to consider when analyzing DXY’s medium-term trends.
Practical Implications:
If the post-election trend is bullish for the first 1-2 years, traders should anticipate a potential bearish shift in the following 1-2 years—and vice versa.
This can be used as a macroeconomic roadmap to align trading strategies with historical probabilities.
Exception: 1996-2000 – Why It Did Not Follow the Seasonal Pattern
The 1996 to 2000 period is the only major exception in this 36-year analysis. Instead of following the typical 1-2 year trend-reversal pattern, DXY remained bullish throughout the entire Clinton second term (1996-2000).
Here’s why this period did not comply with our seasonal analysis:
Unprecedented U.S. Economic Strength ("Clinton Boom")
The late 1990s saw an extraordinarily strong economy, driven by the Dot-Com Boom, technological advancements, and record corporate profits.
Unlike other election cycles where economic slowdowns or policy shifts led to reversals, the U.S. economy kept accelerating, keeping the USD strong.
Federal Reserve’s Tight Monetary Policy (Rising Interest Rates)
From 1997 to 2000, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates to control inflation.
Higher rates made the USD more attractive, increasing foreign capital inflows and preventing a mid-term reversal.
Global Financial Crises (1997 Asian Crisis & 1998 Russian Default)
These crises caused global capital flight to the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset.
Instead of a seasonal decline in DXY, the USD kept rising as investors sought stability in U.S. assets.
Foreign Investment in U.S. Markets (Tech Stock Bubble)
Foreign investors poured money into U.S. stocks and bonds, increasing demand for USD.
This prolonged DXY’s bullish trend, overriding the usual election-based trend reversals.
Conclusion:
The DXY's movement post-elections follows a structured two-phase cycle: initial directional trend (1-2 years) → reversal phase (1-2 years). So you guys can plan your trades accordingly and take advantage of this repeating pattern to maximize profitability.
DXY Shorts 2025DXY's Trump rally seems to have run out of juice with Tarif wars ad uncertainty. Looking major sellside to be taken in the future. At the moment favouring a retracement into Equilibrium of range into monthly buyside-imbalance sellside-inefficiency. Latets CoT Report shows a start to the selling from non-commercial entities.
U.S. Dollar IndexHello Dear Traders
This is the updated analysis of the DXY chart. Last week, I explained its bullish trend to you, and this week I was waiting for the necessary confirmations for entry based on last week’s analysis. With this 1-hour confirmation, we can say that this chart has fully turned bullish, and the targets remain as stated in the previous analysis.
Therefore, we can consider sell entries on the Euro, Pound, Australian Dollar, and New Zealand Dollar, while conversely, we can enter buy positions on the Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, and Swiss Franc.
Thank you for your support. A very simple and clear chart has been drawn for your use.
Wishing you all success!
Fereydoon Bahrami
A retail trader in the Wall Street Trading Center (Forex)
Risk Disclosure:
Trading in the Forex market is risky due to high price volatility. This analysis is solely my personal opinion and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research. You are responsible for any profits or losses resulting from this analysis.
