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Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)Technical Analysis Monthly Chart: Since January 2023, the DXY has been moving within a range. The upper boundary of this range was marked by the 107.348 level, which has now been cleared. This breach of the previous high suggests that liquidity above the range has been taken, signaling the potential for a downside move. Historically, such liquidity grabs often precede significant reversals, aligning with the current bearish setup. Daily Chart: On the daily timeframe, the DXY displayed a sharp decline after taking out its last significant high. This aggressive sell-off has formed a strong bearish pattern, indicating a potential continuation to the downside. The presence of strong bearish momentum highlights sellers' dominance in the current market conditions, reinforcing the bearish outlook initiated by the liquidity grab on the monthly chart. Price Targets: Short-Term Target: A move toward 104.636 is expected as the DXY continues its bearish momentum, which aligns with immediate support and prior structural lows. Medium-to-Long-Term Target: If the bearish trajectory persists, the DXY could reach the 101.917 level, which aligns with a significant support zone from previous price action. This target reflects the potential for extended downside in a broader bearish scenario. Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve and Interest Rates: Recent minutes from the Federal Reserve highlight concerns about continuing rate cuts due to the potential risks they pose to inflation. The Fed has signaled that further rate reductions would only be considered if both the labor market weakens and inflation continues to decline. However, these two factors are closely intertwined. Labor Market Conditions: Historically, the months of November and December exhibit strong employment trends due to holiday hiring. This seasonality reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, as a robust labor market typically does not align with the conditions necessary for easing monetary policy. Inflation Outlook: For the Fed to proceed with aggressive rate cuts, inflation figures would need to remain stable or show further declines. If unemployment rises and inflation remains under control, the Fed may have room for another round of cuts. Such a scenario would support a long-term bearish outlook for the DXY, as lower interest rates reduce demand for the U.S. dollar. Summary and Outlook Technically, the DXY is positioned for further downside following the liquidity grab above the 107.348 level and the subsequent bearish pattern on the daily chart. Fundamentally, while seasonal strength in the labor market may delay immediate bearish moves, the broader macroeconomic context suggests that eventual rate cuts are likely. Key factors to monitor include: Unemployment data in the coming months. Inflation trends to confirm stability or further declines. Any changes in the Fed’s tone regarding rate policy. Price Expectations: In the short term, we could see the DXY reach 104.636, reflecting a retracement toward a key support zone. In the medium to long term, the DXY is likely to target 101.917, aligning with major support from prior price structures and further confirming the bearish outlook. If unemployment begins to rise and inflation remains under control, these targets become even more probable, reinforcing the alignment between technical and fundamental factors.
TVC:DXYShort
by Wiiso
DeGRAM | DXY held the accumulation zoneDXY is near the lower boundary of the channel in the accumulation zone between the trend lines. The index is moving from the lower trend line and has already successfully tested the borders of the current zone and support level again. The chart has formed a harmonic pattern. We expect growth if the index holds in the current zone. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
TVC:DXYLong
by DeGRAM
3
Week Ahead: US Jobs Data in FocusThe first full week of December places the spotlight on US jobs data. Employment metrics from the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing and services PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes) land on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, JOLTs data (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) airs Tuesday, ADP jobs numbers (Automatic Data Processing) are out Wednesday, weekly unemployment claims on Thursday and, of course, the employment situation report makes the airwaves Friday. In addition to US numbers, CPI inflation data (Consumer Price Index) from Switzerland, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) numbers from Australia, and Canadian jobs figures are released this week. Fed Expected to Cut by 25 Basis Points According to the latest market pricing, investors are leaning in favour of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing the target on the funds rate by another 25 basis points (bps) over a no-change decision at the next meeting on 18 December. US inflation remains ‘sticky’ north of the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target, with YY (year on year) CPI inflation rising to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September, YY PPI inflation (Producer Price Index) rising to 2.4% from 1.9%, and YY PCE data (Personal Consumption Expenditures), according to a report released last week, elbowed to 2.3% from 2.1%. Core YY CPI inflation – excludes food and energy prices – remained at 3.3%, core PPI inflation rose to 3.1% from 2.9%, and core PCE data rose to 2.8% from 2.7%. So, while inflation has slowed considerably since the pandemic, inflationary pressures show evidence of stubbornness. PCE data, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is holding just north of 2.0%, and core PCE has stalled around the 2.8% mark amid increased consumption, particularly in services. This week’s US job numbers will be critical and is the last employment report before the Fed rate announcement. These data will provide a fresh perspective on the health of the world’s largest economy and help determine the trajectory of the Federal funds rate. According to data from Refinitiv, following the economy adding 12,000 new payrolls in October – influenced by the recent hurricanes and strike activity – the median estimate for the November non-farm payrolls data is 190,000, with a max/min estimate range between 270,000 and 160,000. The unemployment rate is also expected to have ticked higher to 4.2% in November from 4.1% in October, with average earnings growth expected to slow on both MM (month on month) and YY measures. According to Q3 24 data released last week (second estimate), US economic activity (GDP) remains resilient, running at an annualised pace of 2.8% and was primarily underpinned by personal consumption. With the economy resilient, should job creation report higher-than-expected numbers and unemployment decline, investors could re-evaluate the prospect of a rate cut later this month and lift the US dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields. US Dollar Index Ahead of Data While the USD caught an early bid off the back of President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats, the Dollar Index – a geometrically weighted average of the USD’s value against a basket of six currencies – concluded the week on the back foot down 1.6% and dominantly snapped a three-week bullish phase. With scope to continue exploring higher terrain on the monthly chart until resistance from 109.33, the recent correction positions price action at technically noteworthy daily support between 105.48 and 105.80. Couple this with the area sharing chart space with channel support, extended from the low of 100.18, and the Golden Cross – the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 200-day SMA, which suggests a long-term bull market could be on the table – in addition to the USD’s current trend and room to punch higher on the monthly scale, this support area could be a zone that buyers make a show from. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
TVC:DXYLong
by FPMarkets
DXY. Technical analysisHello traders and investors! The seller has returned the price to the range on the weekly timeframe (see the related post). The price is now below the upper boundary of the range at 106.952. We are monitoring the 106.083 level. If the buyer breaks through and defends it, it would be reasonable to look for buying opportunities. However, if the seller defends this level, selling will be the priority. You can use the 4-hour timeframe for monitoring. Good luck with your trading and investments!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by AlexeyWolf
Bearish drop?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support level which is an overlap support. Pivot: 106.06 1st Support: 104.65 1st Resistance: 107.50 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
Trump threatens BRICS over currency plans President-elect Donald Trump issued a sharp warning to BRICS nations over the weekend, urging them to "find another sucker" and threatening 100% tariffs on any efforts to create an alternative currency that challenges the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been a prominent advocate for reducing reliance on the dollar, proposing a shared South American currency in 2023 to diminish dependency on the USD. However, analysts warn that Trump’s rhetoric could backfire. They argue that intimidating nations to stick with the dollar might inadvertently amplify interest in alternatives, which remain more symbolic than a genuine economic threat to the U.S. for now.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Dollar Currency Index DXY Predicts Massive Crypto Bull RunHello, Skyrexians! In crypto trading and investment it's vital to not only analyze some particular assets, but also macro charts. We have already considered the Bitcoin Dominance chart to predict potential altseason in this article . Today we have even more important asset, the TVC:DXY , which reflects in which type of assets investors are about to be in. When crisis happens investors are scared, selling risky assets and buy dollar. In the worthy times investor are greedy to risky assets and dollar currency index decreases. Today we will try to explain why DXY is about to crush giving liquidity to risky assets like our favorite crypto. Let's take a look at the monthly time frame. It looks like DXY has ended the super cycle of any degree and now is printing correction. Waves A and B are likely to be finished already in this correction. The most impulsive wave C is incoming soon. To measure the targets we can use the Fibonacci retracement for the entire Elliott Waves cycle. Area between 0.5 and 0.61 is going to be our target. That's why we are waiting DXY between 88 and 93. Inside this area we plan to wait for the green dot on Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator which works great in the past. Important note here is that you have to disable MFI filter on this indicator to work correctly on DXY. As always, alerts from this indicator are automatically replicated on my accounts. You can find the information in our article on TradingView. Best regards, Skyrexio Team ___________________________________________________________ Please, boost this article and subscribe our page if you like analysis!
TVC:DXYShort
by Skyrexio
2
DXY Is Bullish! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 105.777. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 108.336 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
DXY Trading Journal DXY Trading Journal Dec 1 Priced closed on the 50% of the BISI, coming down to take the equal lows. Price exceeded my short level I was expecting surpassing my107.099 for the low of the week to actual 105.615. Sweet. I also suspected that we could see a high resistance week of Price action and we did encounter that pattern- so I let price print day--take the day off doll! Discount market on the previous weeks range I would expect to be taking longs this week I would like to see price drop to the .618 and then send it long to105.850? Bullish on the week Parent bias is waiting for more details Lower time frame analysis this week will be mandatory to read what the chart is delivering. We are coming off a week of distribution, a higher price gap and liquidity to the buy side has my eye. NFC red folder this week so buckle up sweetheart, test the theory that red folder days are the low resistance days. Days that provide more favourable trading conditions.
TVC:DXYLong
by LParnell