DXY Is Bullish! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 15m
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 99.109.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 99.404 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USDX trade ideas
DXY BEARISH BIAS|SHORT|
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DXY is trading in a downtrend
And the index is making a local
Bullish correction so after the
Resistance is hit around 100.500
We will be expecting a local
Bearish correction
SHORT๐ฅ
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXY: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD togetherโบ๏ธ
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 98.127 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 98.393.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
โค๏ธSending you lots of Love and Hugsโค๏ธ
Dollar has next 4 years (Be greedy when others are fearful)The world is changing fast, and the next four years may be strong for the U.S. dollar . This is not randomโ it's part of a cycle . Greed-fear cycle
Right now, humanity is entering a time where AI will take over most service-based jobs . Lawyers, designers, consultantsโeven codersโare slowly being replaced by machines. The entire service economy is becoming automated.
When that happens, only countries with real manufacturing will survive.
Thatโs why what President Trump said earlier about โbringing back manufacturingโ makes full sense now.
When services become automated, tangible assets rise.
And the dollar may lead this shift.
Dollar Index - Short Term Relief Rally Upcoming?From the beginning of 2025, it's been nothing but pain in the markets; bearish prices on bearish prices and it's not looking like it's the ends.
But wheat happens when the market is trading one way for a long time is you tend to have short squeezes. This is where traders place and trail their stop losses above recent highs with the expectation that the market will not reverse back into the highs before continuing lower.
I believe something like this can play out this week It all depends on Sundays opening....
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (USDX or DXY) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a weighted basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (57.6% weight), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). Established in 1973 after the Bretton Woods system ended, the index serves as a benchmark for the dollarโs strength in global markets.
How the Dollar Index Drives Trade Directional Bias in Forex
Indicator of Dollar Strength or Weakness
When the USDX rises, it means the U.S. dollar is strengthening against this basket of currencies; when it falls, the dollar is weakening. Since the dollar is the worldโs primary reserve and trading currency, its strength heavily influences forex market trends.
Correlation with Major Currency Pairs
Inverse correlation with EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Because the euro and pound have large weights in the index, a rising USDX typically causes EUR/USD and GBP/USD to fall, and vice versa.
Positive correlation with USD/JPY and USD/CAD: For pairs where USD is the base currency, these pairs tend to move in the same direction as the USDX.
Commodity-related pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD often move inversely to the USDX due to their sensitivity to global risk sentiment and commodity prices.
Guiding Trade Decisions and Confirming Signals
Traders use the USDX to confirm directional bias in forex trades. For example, if the USDX is rising, it supports taking long positions in USD-based pairs or short positions in pairs where USD is the quote currency. Conversely, a falling USDX suggests caution on USD longs and potential opportunities in other currencies.
Macro and Sentiment Indicator
The USDX reflects broader economic conditions, U.S. monetary policy, and global risk sentiment. For instance, Fed rate hikes often strengthen the USDX, causing shifts in forex markets. It also acts as a proxy for the health of the U.S. economy and influences global trade flows.
Summary
Aspect Effect on Forex Trading
Rising USDX Dollar strengthens; EUR/USD & GBP/USD tend to fall; USD/JPY & USD/CAD tend to rise
Falling USDX Dollar weakens; EUR/USD & GBP/USD tend to rise; USD/JPY & USD/CAD tend to fall
USD as Base Currency (USD/xxx) Moves in line with USDX
USD as Quote Currency (xxx/USD) Moves inversely to USDX
Use in Trading Confirms trade signals, guides directional bias, gauges macroeconomic trends
In essence, the U.S. Dollar Index is a vital tool in forex trading, providing a consolidated view of the dollarโs strength and helping traders anticipate market movements and set trade directional bias accordingly.
DXY Long to 100 off bullish news from Trump
1. Current Data and research
Macro Regime
Business cycle
- moving into recession territory. S&P is down from 6125 to 4842 at its lowest. That's a 21% drop - this crosses the 20% drop threshold.
Inflation
- Headline 2.4%. Slightly above 2% target. Core PCE is at 0.4%. This is higher than expected.
Monetary Policy
- Still at high interest rate levels of 4.5%. There's more room for cuts than hike in general. However, Tariffs is a spanner in this logic as it introduces inflation that needs to be controlled, and limits the cuts.
Growth
- Consumer sentiments - 50.8. This is a drop from 57. Not a good sign for confidence in the US markets
Central Bank Outlook
- Forward Guidance & Policy Path - "Wait and see" approach to see the full effects of the tariffs and will tackle. Unlikely to cut rates quickly due to inflation risks from tariffs.
Flow & Positioning Factors
- LDN and NY opens
List of upcoming data
German PMI - today
US PMI - today
Expectations
German PMI - 47.5/50.3 - Unsure, but doubt there will be a huge surprise to the upside
US PMI - 49.3/52.9 - Expect a downtrend here and close to the 49.3. It will invalidate longer-term trades if there's a huge surprise to the downside
US Unemployment claims -NA -Expecting higher
Bullish arguments
- More pumping by Trump to prop the market up while the fundamentals are still likely to bad as tariffs are still there
Bear arguments
- The tariff is still the biggest elephant in the room and nothing has changed there. If anything, China has taken steps to prepare for a worse response in the future if US does not reach a negotiation.
2. Trade Thesis
Directional Thesis
I am expecting DXY to go back up to 100 due to a temporary strength in the USD from the good news for Fed Powell and Trump backing down in tariffs.
Supporting Logic
- Structural
-- The DXY was holding 100 level before the Powell news.
-- If the current news stays status quo, I expect prices to rise back up to that fundamental level after a brief pullback from 99.4 to 99.2
-Tactical
A significant lower-high pivot point set on H1 chart. I need prices to remain above that 99 level. If it drops below, then the tactical levels do not work.
- Flows
Look for entry at either LDN or NY session open
Expected Path
- Pull back to 99.0 and now slow ascend back to 100
- There's a resistance level at 99.6. That would be TP1, and 100 would be TP2
Invalidation Logic
- Fundamental Invalidation
-- Trump tweets another fire Fed
-- China escalates the trade war
-- US PMI has a huge downside surprise (unlikely)
- Price-Based Invalidation
-- Price breaking below 99
Asymmetric Setup
If I enter at 99.1X, this is a potential 1:4R trade with high confidence
Trade Setup
Entry level
- 99.1 to 99.2
Scale-in plan (if any)
- I can enter full size here
Position sizing
- 1% of account
TP zones
- TP1 - 99.6
- TP2 - 100
- TP3 - 101 (significant psychological level)
Time stop
Kill trade if
a) Prices drop below 99
b) Prices do not bounce to the upside within 2 hours of LDN and NY open
Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months.
Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move:
Monthly Close Above 100.160:
A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities.
Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y):
This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets.
COT Report Insights:
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves.
Seasonal Patterns:
Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape.
Targets:
Initial Target: 106.120
Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.
DXY Printing a Bullish Triangle??The DXY on the 1 Hr Chart is forming a potential continuation pattern, the Bullish Triangle!
Currently Price is testing the 99.6 - 99.8 Resistance Area and battling with the 200 EMA and 34 EMA Band. The reaction to this conjunction could be pivotal in who overcomes: Buyers or Sellers.
Now during the formation of the potential pattern, Price on the RSI has stayed relatively Above the 50 mark being Bullish Territory suggesting Buyers could win the Bull-Bear battle.
Until Price breaks either the Resistance Area or the Rising Support, we will not have a definitive direction in which USD will strengthen or weaken.
*Wait For The Break*
-If Price breaks the Resistance Area, USD will strength possibly heading to the 100.8 - 101 Area
-If Price breaks the Rising Support, USD will weaken possibly heading to the 98.5 - 98.3 Area
Fundamentally, it is said China and USA are possibly getting closer to potentially ending the Reciprocal Tariff War going on with both sides willing to negotiate.
With the USA being the #1 Consumer of Goods globally, other economies can not afford us to not buy their things so I continue to see the Tariff War more as a Strong-Arm for the USA to be able to negotiate better terms!
USD News:
JOLTS - Tuesday, Apr. 29th
GDP - Wednesday, Apr. 30th
Unemployment Claims / ISM Manu. PMI - Thursday, May 1st
Non-Farm Employment Change / Avg Hourly Earnings / Unemployment Rate - Friday, May 2nd
For all things Currency,
Keep it Current,
With Novi_Fibonacci
$DXY bullish from 96-98, massive bull flagDespite everyone calling for the death of the dollar, I think the dollar is in the process of bottoming and then will head higher.
Macron called for the Euro to replace the dollar (which is laughable) and likely marks a bottom.
Either we bounce here, or I could see the possibility of one more spike low down to the ~96 support level, but should we see a reaction there, it sets up a massive move higher in the dollar.
As you can see on the chart, we've been correcting inside of a bull flag, if we can form a low around $96-98, we will reverse and head higher to break the flag to the upside. Upside targets on the chart.
I think the bull market in the dollar is just starting, don't let the news scare you out of accumulating dollars over other fiat currencies.
USDX-BUY straegy Daily chart Regression channelThe USDX shows clearly we should be cautious in selling USD, and this applies across the board. Based on channel and the extreme case we are in, we can bounced back ttowards 101.20-101.70 area in the near term.
Strategy BUY @ 97.80 - 98.20 and take proft in stages 1. @ 100.37 and 2. 101.57.
USD Tests Long-Term Support + Weekly OversoldLast week I highlighted the oversold reading on the weekly DXY chart. While bulls didn't exactly put in a massive showing it was also one of the first green weekly bars in a month.
Notably, the monthly April bar looks very bearish but the bulk of those losses were in the first 11 days of the month and last week, on Monday, a massive spot of support came into play at the 38.2% retracement of the 2008-2024 major move. This is confluent with a trendline projection, connecting 2001 and 2020 highs, which had come in to hold support back in July of 2023. This adds context to the possibility of a pullback in the USD and this meshes with the 1.1500 resistance test in EUR/USD. - js
DXY "Dollar Index" Market Bullish Heist Plan (Day or Swing)๐Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!๐
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, ๐ค ๐ฐ๐ธโ๏ธ
Based on ๐ฅThief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis๐ฅ, here is our master plan to heist the DXY "Dollar Index" Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk ATR Line. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. ๐๐ธ"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!๐ช๐๐
Entry ๐ : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (99.900) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries.
๐I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss ๐: "๐ Yo, listen up! ๐ฃ๏ธ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout ๐. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to ๐, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like ๐คช - just don't say I didn't warn you โ ๏ธ. You're playin' with fire ๐ฅ, and it's your risk, not mine ๐."
๐ Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (98.900) Day / Swing trade basis.
๐ SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
๐ดโโ ๏ธTarget ๐ฏ: 101.400 (or) Escape Before the Target
๐งฒScalpers, take note ๐ : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money ๐ฐ.
๐ฐ๐ต๐ธDXY "Dollar Index" Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) is currently experiencing a Bullish trend.., driven by several key factors.โโโ
๐ฐ๐๏ธGet & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Future trend targets with Overall outlook score... go ahead to check ๐๐๐๐๐
โ ๏ธTrading Alert : News Releases and Position Management ๐ฐ ๐๏ธ ๐ซ๐
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
๐Supporting our robbery plan ๐ฅHit the Boost Button๐ฅ will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money ๐ฐ๐ต. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.๐๐ช๐คโค๏ธ๐๐
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned ๐ค๐ฑโ๐ค๐ค๐คฉ