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DXY View!!Futures tied to the Fed's policy rate now reflect about a 47% chance the Fed will cut its policy rate by half a percentage point, climbing from 28% odds on Tuesday following media reports suggesting it could be a close call between a half-point and a quarter-point rate cut. The growing anticipation of steeper cuts helped boost stocks, gold and Treasury prices, and drive down the dollar. All three major U.S. indexes closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI was up 0.72%, the S&P 500 SPX jumped 0.54% and the Nasdaq Composite IXIC surged 0.65%.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by FXBANkthe8055
DXY Bullish Reversal Ahead?!!!Fundametnal Analysis: TVC:DXY remains supported by a robust 5.25% Federal Funds Rate, attracting investment into USD-denominated assets. Inflation, reflected by a Core CPI of 0.3% and a CPI year-over-year of 2.5%, shows signs of moderation, reducing the urgency for further rate hikes, while stable PPI data indicates manageable inflationary pressures from the production side. Unemployment claims at 230K signal a slightly softening labor market, which could limit future rate hikes. However, the rise in consumer confidence to 103.3 points signals economic resilience, supporting near-term demand for the dollar. Overall, while moderating inflation and labor market cooling might temper DXY’s upside, the strong consumer sentiment and high interest rates keep the outlook neutral to slightly bullish.... Tip: If the Fed cuts interest rates due to moderating inflation and a softening labor market, DXY could weaken as USD-denominated assets become less attractive. However, if other countries also lower their rates, the impact on DXY may be less significant, as global monetary easing would offset much of the downward pressure on the dollar. Technical Analysis: TVC:DXY is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal after bouncing off key support at 100.691. The chart reveals a series of higher lows, indicating strengthening buying pressure. The RSI at 39.85 suggests the index is near oversold territory, further supporting the likelihood of a rebound. Immediate resistance is around 101.793, with the next target at 102.678, and a longer-term target near 104.100 if momentum continues. The Federal Funds Rate decision on September 18th will be crucial in determining whether this bullish breakout materializes. A break below 100.691, however, could invalidate this setup and push the index lower. overall view
TVC:DXYLong
by rTrader_official
1
Weekly Technical Analysis for Major Currency Pairs, Commodities,Weekly Technical Analysis for Major Currency Pairs, Commodities, and Indices for the Period from September 16 to September 20, 2024 Introduction: Greetings, this is Mohamed Qais Abdulghani, financial markets expert, presenting the weekly technical analysis for the most important currency pairs, commodities, and indices for the current week. In this analysis, we will review the key global economic events that will impact the financial markets, followed by a comprehensive technical analysis of the major currency pairs, commodities, and indices. Key Economic Events for the Week: • Monday, September 16, 2024: The release of the New York Manufacturing Index. A weak performance in this index could negatively affect the dollar, enhancing gold’s appeal as a safe haven. • Tuesday, September 17, 2024: The release of U.S. Retail Sales data, which will indicate the strength of consumer spending. Positive results may support the dollar, while negative results could boost gold and other commodities. • Wednesday, September 18, 2024: The Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the most significant event of the week. A potential rate cut could weaken the U.S. dollar, leading to a rise in gold and other financial assets. • Thursday, September 19, 2024: The release of U.S. jobless claims. An increase in claims could signal labor market weakness, possibly pushing the dollar down and gold prices up. • Friday, September 20, 2024: The Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, which could affect the yen, Asian markets, and major currencies like the dollar and euro. Technical Analysis for Key Currency Pairs and Indices: 1. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure, with prices holding below 102. A break below 100.500 could lead to a gradual decline towards 99 and 97. 2. EUR/USD: Trading in a positive scenario, as long as prices stay above 1.10. A move towards 1.12 and 1.15 is expected, and the bullish scenario will only be invalidated if prices fall below 1.10. 3. GBP/USD: Approaching a key support level at 1.31. A break of this level could drive the pair down towards 1.29700 and 1.28500. 4. USD/JPY: As long as prices remain below 144 yen, the likelihood of a drop towards 140 yen increases. A break of this level will confirm further declines. 5. USD/CHF: Still under pressure, the pair will regain its bullish momentum only if it breaks above 0.58100. 6. AUD/USD: Stability above 0.66700 supports the bullish outlook, but a break below this level could lead to a decline towards 0.65000. 7. NZD/USD: Prices staying above 0.61000 supports the positive scenario, but this could be invalidated if prices fall below 0.61000. 8. USD/CAD: The 1.36000 level is critical. If prices break above it, we may see a rise towards 1.37500 and 1.39000. 9. GBP/JPY: Approaching key support at 184 yen. A break of this level could lead to a decline towards 177 yen and 170 yen. 10. EUR/JPY: Staying below 158 yen increases the chances of a decline towards 153 yen and 148 yen. 11. EUR/GBP: Prices remaining below 0.80500 favor the bearish scenario, targeting 0.79750 and 0.79000. 12. USD/TRY: Trading below 34 lira could lead to a corrective drop towards 33.20 lira. 13. BTC/USD: If Bitcoin successfully breaks 60,000 USD, we could see a rally towards 66,000 USD and 74,000 USD. 14. ETH/USD: A break above 2,500 USD could drive Ethereum towards 2,800 USD, with further potential targets at 3,200 USD and 3,600 USD. 15. XRP/USD: As long as prices remain above 0.55 USD, the positive scenario remains intact, with targets at 0.65 USD and 0.80 USD. 16. Gold (XAU/USD): Gold has reached new record highs and is expected to target 2,600 USD and 2,640 USD this week. Caution is advised with key economic data approaching. 17. Crude Oil (WTI): Staying below 71 USD signals more downside, and a break below 66 USD could push oil prices towards 61 USD and 56 USD. 18. Silver (XAG/USD): A break above 30.50 USD could lead silver prices towards 32 USD and 33 USD. 19. Natural Gas (NG): If prices break 2.20 USD, we may see the closing of a price gap towards 1.80 USD and 1.40 USD. 20. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): Holding above 41,000 points supports a rise towards 42,544 points. A break below 41,000 points would invalidate this bullish scenario. 21. S&P 500: Remaining above 5,500 points favors a bullish scenario towards 5,700 and 5,900 points. 22. NASDAQ: Remaining above 19,250 points supports a move towards 20,000 points. 23. Russell: Holding above 2,150 points supports a rise towards 2,225 and 2,320 points. 24. FTSE: Remaining above 8,200 points supports a rise towards 8,400 and 8,600 points. 25. DAX: A break above 18,750 points could drive the DAX towards 19,250 and 20,000 points. 26. CAC: Remaining below 7,600 points strengthens the bearish outlook towards 7,200 points. 27. Nikkei: Trading below 37,000 points could push the Nikkei towards 35,000 and 33,000 points. Conclusion: Thank you for following this analysis, and we invite you to interact with us by asking your questions. This analysis is prepared by Mohamed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is recommended to keep up with economic updates to make informed decisions.
TVC:DXY
by MohammedQais
DXY updateTrust the process DXY went exactly the way we were seeing it melting,according to my view demand zone is at 96 to 90 will see after FOMC how far it can goo,for now to avoid much risk is good for sellers to secure profits n generate liquidity to buying point am not expecting DXY to goo lower than 90,note that am not good on explaining n writing paragraphs but am good at analyzing n following right trend soo for less distraction follow the analysis n the trend as I follow n simple make a living.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by mulaudzimpho
DXY Its about DXY in a high timeframe analysis. the price is currently at a critical daily level and is indicating signs of potential rejection from this level. Considering this analysis, here are some key points to take into account: 1. **Critical Daily Level**: is significant as it may act as a strong support or resistance point for the DXY. 2. **Rejection Signal**: The signal showing a potential rejection from this level implies that there could be a shift in momentum or a reversal in the price movement. 3. **Confirmation**: It's essential to seek confirmation from other technical indicators, price action patterns, or fundamental factors to validate the potential rejection and strengthen your analysis. 4. **Risk Management**: Implementing risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders, is crucial to protect against adverse price movements in case the rejection signal does not play out as anticipated. 5. **Market Monitoring**: Stay updated on economic data releases, geopolitical events, and other factors that could impact the US dollar to make well-informed trading decisions. By considering these factors and conducting thorough analysis, you can better navigate the market dynamics surrounding the US Dollar Currency Index in high timeframes. If you need further assistance or more detailed insights, feel free to ask.
TVC:DXYLong
by somayehbasiri
Bots vs Brains; The hidden edge of Human touch in tradingBots vs Brains; The hidden edge of Human touch in trading A random Google search on the internet about forex trading robots reveals thousands of forex robots exist. With all these trading robots promising handsome returns in the shortest time, the forex trading industry should be minting new millionaires daily. However, statistics from forex brokers paint a sad picture—a failure rate as high as 90%. In 2024, you can’t go a day without reading or watching a reel about Artificial Intelligence (AI). The high failure rate, especially in the world of finance, is baffling given all these technological advancements. This led me to take a deeper look into the world of automated forex trading, also known as bots or Expert Advisors (EA). Overview of Automated Trading A trading bot is software developed to analyze financial markets and execute trades on your behalf. Semi-automatic trading bots analyze the markets but do not execute trades. Large financial institutions, such as banks and hedge funds, use specialized algorithmic trading bots. These institutions bring together mathematicians, programmers, and economists to develop sophisticated algorithms. Needless to say, it requires significant financial resources and time to develop these bots. Development can take at least six months, followed by an additional six months of testing. The high cost makes these bots inaccessible to retail traders. Retail traders, however, are not left out. There are individuals and software platforms where you can develop your own trading bot. These bots are often marketed as being developed by experts with deep market knowledge—or so I thought. Trading bots follow specific rules based on the developer’s strategy, which ideally should mirror the success of an experienced trader. Therefore, if a trader is profitable, the bot should at least mimic their results, if not surpass them—more on this later. Before launching these bots, developers conduct extensive backtesting and refinement to optimize them for ideal market conditions. Advantages of Automated Trading Developers of trading bots often market them as superior to manual trading. They emphasize the need to eliminate human error and emotions, highlight faster execution speeds, and promote the ability to trade 24 hours a day as long as markets are open. Additionally, bots can save traders significant time that would otherwise be spent analyzing markets and executing trades. On the surface, purchasing trading robots seems like a smart decision. Limitations of Automated Trading Bots rely on historical data, assuming the future will mirror the past. However, global events are unpredictable. Take, for example, the 2008 financial crisis or the sudden shock of COVID-19—events like these can completely throw off a bot’s programming. Robots struggle to adjust to such volatility unless they’re frequently updated with new data, which many are not. This is a major limitation, especially when you consider how quickly the forex market moves with trillions of dollars in circulation. Earlier, I mentioned that robots are supposedly developed by profitable traders. But to my surprise, I found that with little trading experience, anyone can create a robot on platforms like EA Trading Academy. All it takes is registering, selecting a few parameters, running a back test, and then selling it. It’s really that simple. The ease with which these bots can be built raises questions about their reliability, especially when they aren’t crafted by experts. I even plan to build one myself, and I’ll give you feedback in a year’s time. Why I Think Robots Don’t Work The main issue is that there’s a shortage of consistently profitable traders. A trader who dedicates the time and effort to developing a reliable robot is likely to charge a hefty fee. The likelihood that they would focus solely on developing robots instead of trading themselves is very slim. This makes me wonder—who is actually building all these robots? If most profitable traders are busy trading, it raises concerns about the experience level and expertise of those creating the majority of these products. Secondly, trading styles vary significantly from trader to trader. Purchasing a robot based solely on profitability or low cost is unwise. In addition to checking a developer’s track record, you should assess whether their risk tolerance and trading approach align with yours. For instance, buying a scalping robot when you prefer swing trading could be a costly mismatch. Finally, purchasing robots without a solid understanding of the markets is irresponsible, and the disasters that follow are often justified. Many experienced traders who have tested and reviewed bots on YouTube agree that 99% of them are either scams or simply don’t work. I encourage you to watch some of these reviews to see for yourself. The Future: Automation vs. Human Touch Mastery in trading comes from a combination of skill, time, and experience. While bots claim to save you the time spent on analysis, it's precisely that time—the deep learning and constant market study—that ultimately leads to true mastery. There are no shortcuts. Bots may be designed to minimize human error, and in theory, they do. But the reality is that even the most sophisticated bots are not infallible. They can and often do fail, sometimes catastrophically. When accounts are blown—whether by a human or a bot—it’s still the trader who bears the loss and the disappointment. So, while bots may reduce human error, they can never eliminate the human responsibility for those errors. Trading the financial markets is a craft like any other. Automation, AI, and machine learning can be valuable tools in your journey to becoming a skilled trader. They cannot replace the critical thinking and adaptability that come with human experience. AI can assist by analyzing large sets of data, flagging trends, or executing trades faster than a human could—but the nuanced understanding of market sentiment, global events, and individual risk tolerance is something only a human can develop through dedication and practice. Automation might help you refine your craft, but it's the time spent learning, making mistakes, and adapting that leads to true mastery. As promising as they are, AI and bots are tools—not substitutes—for the expertise that comes from being deeply engaged in the markets. Others before you have achieved mastery, and with enough commitment, you can too.
CAPITALCOM:DXYEducation
by morrisgitau
3
The Mallicast team's analysis of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) The analysis of the dollar index for the third week of September by the Mallicast team indicates that in the monthly time frame, the overall trend remains bearish, and the price floor can be considered around 99.538. However, in the daily and weekly time frames, a corrective move is expected. Therefore, the potential price ceiling is forecasted to be 101.340. Given these conditions, it is possible to anticipate a renewed upward movement in dollar-related currency pairs this week.
TVC:DXYShort
by mallicast
DXY UPDATED w/ Eurozone Interest Rate & U.S. Jobless Claims originally posted here . 102.500 DXY in the coming weeks? The Eurozone has opted to keep interest rates stable at 3.65%, signaling a wait-and-see approach to current economic conditions. Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims have come in 3,000 lower than expected, reflecting a stronger U.S. labor market. This divergence in data is likely to put pressure on EUR/USD, with the U.S. dollar gaining strength from robust employment figures while the Euro remains steady amid unchanged monetary policy. I’ll be watching for potential bullish DXY into the next trading sessions.
TVC:DXYLong
by trader9224
USD - A Higher-Low for This Week After the Oversold W1 Read I had published an idea on the weekly oversold reading in DXY ( linked here: ) in late-August and as I said then, those are rather rare, and the last time we had one of those was in January of 2018. In that episode it took about three months of grind after the oversold reading for bulls to take over. And we haven't yet taken that low out since. But that's a single sample and RSI is a lagging indicator - so we have to be careful of drawing too much from that data. It does however highlight how the trade became crowded after a prolonged trend showed on a longer-term chart and as we've seen since the most recent instance, bears haven't been able to continue the move. And, as a matter of fact, there's been a more recent build of higher-lows. Last week showed a higher-low around the NFP release, and then this week showed a higher-low after the ECB 'rate cut rally.' The point of consternation here is USD/JPY and the carry trade. That pair hasn't yet touched the 38.2% retracement from the trend produced by the carry trade and that says that there could be much more to go. This is something that could be driven by next week's FOMC rate decision; and perhaps more important than whether its 25 or 50 bps is the question of how aggressive the Fed expects to be in November, December or through 2025 trade. This will be transmitted through the dot plot matrix and if it shows the FOMC leaning hard into a dovish posture, carry trades in USD/JPY could be further compelled to show greater unwind and that's something that could continue to drive the USD-lower. On the other hand, if the Fed takes more of a wait-and-see approach, carry trades could be a bit less alarmed and given the support that's just come into play in USD/JPY, there could be some short-cover from shorter-term traders that could lead to more of a bounce-type of scenario. Also of interest on the long side of the USD is just how elevated EUR/USD remains despite the fact that Europe isn't exactly in a more-healthy spot, economically speaking, than the US. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
Completion of the correction of the dollar index DXY.H4 13.09.24Completion of the correction of the dollar index DXY The dollar index has completed its upward correction and now we are waiting for a downside downdraft on the Fed on the 18th of September. In fact, the currency futures expiration has now passed and the gap that you see in the quotes is caused by a large divergence of forward point, that is a purely technical picture. Some suppliers may have different quotes by the numbers. From current levels +- I expect a correction up again and a continuation of the fall after Powell's speech on Wednesday 18 September. I do not set targets at the low yet, I will be looking at it in the process
TVC:DXYShort
by KovachTrader
1
The 4HR USDX W-Bottom Rocketing USD - Today! I know it reads like a headline in a newspaper trying to sell the Sunday paper, but that is really not me. But I am also not the kind of person who finds keeping a good secret - a secret. We are all here on Tradingview to watch each other's backs in a risk management and learning experience kind of way, in relation to being a consistent and profitable trader. A couple of things to be aware of today in your Friday-trading. I am quite convinced that the USDX will be propelled upwards & finally through 101.85 causing a sustained breakout in the dollar over the next several days to a week. I see this occurring right before, at the open or within in an hour or 2 of the NY market session today. What reason(s) do I have to be propagating this type of fear and panic into Traders today. I will tell you right below! The 4HR W/Bottom is now properly formed. Well the finishing touches are being made to the right-side of the W as I write, which will give the dollar plenty of relative strength. Helping that cause? Well of course that would be the momentum -oscillators RSI & Stochastic's on the higher timeframes. I watch these a lot in my own trading because they warn me about supply/demand levels especially when commodities, currency's, stocks, metals etc, enter their overbought and oversold zones - for example the USD has been beaten down the past month or so and it's now oversold, but when something is oversold, provided that it's a commodity, currency or thing that people want and demand again, it's oversold state becomes one with increasing buyer demand at cheaper prices - then boom - breakout. I will be watching closely the Vix Index as well. I see it possibly breaking higher than 15% today and as for Gold - well after yesterday's shot-in-the-arm, I for one will be Shorting it back to 2430 to 2450 levels. Finally, take a look at the following current 4HR USDX chart. What I see occurring with the Oscillators' is that the RSI / Stochastic's on the 1HR, 2HR, 4HR Daily & Weekly Charts, will cross-up out of their oversold condition's concurrently and simultaneously, igniting the USDX off it's W-Bottom and smashing through 101.85 without so much as the blink of an eye. Maybe I am a looney you are thinking? Yes, but a looney who capitalises ahead of time.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
2