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USD, DXY Support Structure Ahead of CPI While the US Dollar has technically set a fresh yearly low, sellers were unable to get much run below the Dec 2023 swing low of 100.62. That price has since stalled the sell-off with support holding the line for the past few weeks. Given the upcoming CPI report and the FOMC rate decision next week, this could change, of course, but at this stage there's also an opening door for bulls given technical structure combined with those drivers on the horizon. For reference points, resistance levels exist at 102, 102.16 and 102.35. If bulls can drive through that, there will be a greater show of control and this is something that can further open the door for topside swing continuation. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices10/9/2024Daily Technical Analysis for Gold, Currencies, and Indices - September 10, 2024 Introduction: Greetings, this is Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, financial markets expert, with the daily technical analysis for the most important currency pairs, commodities, and indices for Tuesday, September 10, 2024. Key Economic Data: Before starting the technical analysis, let’s highlight the key economic data scheduled for today that may impact price movements: • 9:00 AM Mecca Time: The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released, a key inflation indicator for the Eurozone’s largest economy. • 3:25 PM Mecca Time: A speech from Mr. Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, which could provide insights into Canada’s monetary policy and market movements. Technical Analysis: US Dollar Index (DXY): • The US Dollar Index continues its upward corrective wave, but trading below the 102 level keeps the index under pressure. • A break above 102 could extend the correction toward 103.200. • Trading below 102 suggests potential further downside toward the 100.300 support level. EUR/USD: • The pair is in a downward corrective move, approaching significant support at 1.1000. • As long as it trades above 1.1000, the scenario remains positive with targets at 1.1200 on the short-term. • A break below 1.1000 would lead to a deeper correction. GBP/USD: • The pair is approaching key support at 1.3100. A break below this level could trigger a strong bearish wave toward 1.2900 and 1.2850. • Staying above 1.3100 would keep the bullish outlook intact. USD/JPY: • The pair remains under pressure as long as it trades below 145 yen, favoring a bearish outlook toward 140 yen and 134 yen. USD/CHF: • The pair continues to trade under pressure, with prices below 0.5810 indicating further downside toward 0.5700 and 0.5630. AUD/USD: • A break below 0.6670 could initiate a bearish wave toward 0.6500 and 0.6250 on the medium term. NZD/USD: • The pair remains in a downtrend, and continued trading below 0.6225 may target 0.6100 or lower levels. USD/CAD: • The pair is facing bearish pressure. Trading below 1.3600 could lead to further declines toward 1.3500 and 1.3300. GBP/JPY: • Trading below 196 yen supports the bearish outlook toward 184 yen and potentially 170 yen in the medium term. EUR/JPY: • A break below 157.900 could trigger a significant drop toward 153 yen and 148 yen. EUR/GBP: • Trading below 0.8400 reinforces the bearish trend with targets at 0.8375 and 0.8300. USD/TRY: • The pair is attempting to end its correction. A break above 34 lira could lead to a rise toward 34.50 lira and 35 lira. BTC/USD: • Bitcoin is attempting to recover previous losses, but a decisive break above the psychological barrier at 60,000 USD is necessary for further gains. • Without this, the price remains under threat of declining toward 52,000 USD and 44,000 USD. ETH/USD: • A break below 2200 USD could trigger a strong bearish wave, targeting 1600 USD. XRP/USD: • Trading below 55 cents suggests further declines toward 48 cents and 40 cents. Gold (XAU/USD): • Gold remains in a corrective downward wave, but as long as it trades above 2460 USD per ounce, the overall bullish trend remains intact. • A break above 2520 USD is needed to target 2600 USD and 2700 USD. • Inflation data expected on Wednesday could bring high volatility to gold prices. Crude Oil (WTI): • Trading below 70 USD per barrel keeps the bearish scenario intact, with targets at 66 USD and 62 USD. Silver (XAG/USD): • Remaining below 29 USD strengthens the bearish trend, with downside targets at 27.50 USD and 26 USD. Natural Gas (NG): • A break below 2.20 USD could lead to a sharp decline toward 1.80 USD. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): • The Dow Jones is attempting to end its correction. A break above 41,000 points could trigger a rise toward 42,500 points. • The 41,000-point level represents a strong resistance, and a break above this level could signal strong movements in the market. Nasdaq (NASDAQ): • Trading below 19,250 points reinforces the bearish scenario toward 18,250 and 17,200 points. FTSE (FTSE): • Staying above 8200 points could support a recovery toward 8400 points. DAX (DAX): • A break below 18,200 points could negate the positive outlook and lead to significant declines. CAC (CAC): • Trading below 7600 points strengthens the bearish outlook toward 7200 points. Nikkei (Nikkei): • Trading below 37,000 points suggests further declines toward 35,000 and 33,000 points. Conclusion: This concludes the daily technical analysis. Thank you for following along. Best regards, and see you soon. This analysis was prepared by Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, financial market expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is advisable to follow the latest economic developments for well-informed decisions.
TVC:DXY
by MohammedQais
Market News Report - 08 September 2024Our fundamental outlooks for the major currencies remain the same from the past week. However, those that we considered bearish, like the British pound and the US dollar have shown strength recently. Nonetheless, let's see what to expect from all the major forex markets performance-wise in our latest news report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR (short-term interest rate) markets expect at least four full rate cuts before the end of this year. They also suggest a 36% chance of a 50 bps (basis points) cut at the meeting next week on the 18th. Another bearish focus for the US is the slowing labour market, according to the latest jobs revisions data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Diarise the upcoming inflation rate and initial jobless claims for the dollar this week. The DXY chart aligns perfectly with the fundamentals. It recently reached a major support area (100.617) on the daily chart and is still near this level. Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348 and will likely remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. Markets anticipate several full rate cuts before the year ends. Also, data on weakened jobs is another bearish driver for the dollar. Only geopolitical risks, bond market selling, and interest rate differentials can affect this sentiment. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The primary bearish driver is the interest rate, with STIR markets anticipating a very high chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the meeting this Thursday. Furthermore, the Governing Council affirmed that rates need to remain "sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary." However, the European Central Bank (ECB) has also stressed that it is data-dependent. This means that certain economic data, like employment data, may boost the euro. Meanwhile, the chart tells a slightly different story. After breaking the last major resistance (although dropping slightly now), the next target is 1.12757. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.07774. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The ECB hasn't committed to a specific future path with the interest rate. They are data-dependent, meaning data around inflation, growth, and wage improvement can lift the euro. However, their meeting in July was slightly more dovish than hawkish. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at the beginning of last month. However, the BoE remains data-dependent and has no set future path. STIR markets are currently pricing two additional cuts for the remainder of 2024. The central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. Any future failures here would likely weaken the GBP. Watch out for the new unemployment and inflation rates on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. As with the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. It has just broken the major resistance at 1.31424. So, the next area of interest is near by at 1.32666. On the other hand, the nearest key support is far below at 1.26156. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. While the interest rate is the chief bearish driver for the pound, the BoE has yet to signal a future path in this regard. STIR markets predict a rate hold next month (74% chance vs. 62% chance last week). Furthermore, two-way risks remain based on upcoming economic data, particularly with inflation. Also, GBP/USD has been pushing higher of late due to USD weakness on Fed easing hopes. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision in July to hike the interest rate (15 bps hike vs the 10 bps expected). STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability, up from 95% last week) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year. So, the bullish bias is intact, more so with the rate-cutting mood of other major centrals like the Fed, ECB, and BoE. The USD/JPY market perfectly reflects the fundamental outlook of the dollar and yen. This pair looks to now target the major support area at 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. In addition to the recent rate hike, other bullish catalysts for the yen include lower US Treasury yields. Also, the Bank of Japan is actively intervening in the forex markets, contributing to the JPY's upside. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unsurprisingly kept the interest rate unchanged not long ago to keep the fight against persistent inflation. Moreover, Governor Bullock expressed last week that the central bank must see 'results' on the latter before lowering rates. Like many currencies, the Aussie remains data-sensitive, whether we look at economic growth, labour, or inflation going forward. The recent rise in China's share prices, which correlates with the Aussie, has been positive for the currency. Still, there is doubt over the longevity of this run. The Aussie market has risen noticeably of late, having reached a recent resistance level (0.67986). While dipping last week, the next target at 0.68711 isn't so far away. Meanwhile, the major support level is down at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA remains hawkish as per the recent meeting, focusing on core inflation. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, with recent labour data keeping the bullish script alive. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical. So, it is exposed to slow economic growth in other countries. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. New Zealand's central bank recently dropped the Kiwi's interest rate from 5.50% to 5.25%. Lower-revised cash rate projections also hint at the potential for further cuts in the near future. The Kiwi has recently breached a major resistance at 0.62220 - the next target is 0.63696. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area that it is unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The central bank's dovish stance in its latest meeting (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for the NZD. As with its counterpart, traders should be data-dependent. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Canadian dollar is fresh off an interest rate cut (from 4.50% to 4.25%), confirming the overwhelming probability suggested by STIR markets. Furthermore, the latter indicates a 91% chance of another cut next month and two full rate cuts before the end of 2024. Among other factors, Canada's ongoing mortgage stress has forced its central bank to be dovish. Despite the above, the CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness (although the dollar gained the upper hand this past week). It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with the BoC governor Macklem himself saying it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. In last week's meeting, they also wished for economic growth. The mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. However, expect encouraging oil prices, along with general economic data improvement, to save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets forecast a rate cut later this month and December this year. Also, despite the positive trend of falling inflation, the Swiss National Bank is pressured to weaken the Swiss franc to make exports easier. However, the CHF can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like the Middle East crisis. USD/CHF has trended down nicely for several weeks, now looking to test the support area at 0.83326. Meanwhile, the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The expected rate cut in the next SNB meetings for 2024 is the main bearish driver. However, the SNB's chairperson, Thomas Jordan, expressed that "appreciation of the Swiss Franc has an impact on monetary policy." This means that potential intervention by the central bank can go either way. Conclusion The fundamental outlooks of each currency have remained mostly unchanged from the previous report. Thursday will arguably be the most anticipated day due to the ECB's interest rate decision. However, keep an eye on the high-impact news events for the dollar and the British pound. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst, but this report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term.
TVC:DXY
by CityTradersImperium_CTI
DXY Will Go Lower! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 101.521. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 100.405 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
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