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Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis - A Deeper Correction Approaching?Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis - Is a Deeper Correction Approaching? Since September 2024, the Dollar Index (DXY) has risen significantly, gaining 8.2%, marking its highest appreciation in months. This upward momentum has been fueled by positive economic indicators, increasing demand for dollars. Recently, the DXY reached the 107.00 mark, its highest resistance level since 2022. However, after hitting this point, the DXY exhibited a false breakout, suggesting potential buyer fatigue. Currently, the price has dipped slightly to 105.93, with the possibility of further retracement towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 104.92 before continuing its upward trend. Buying Potential If the price returns to the range between 104.92 (38.2% Fibonacci) and 103.96 (50% Fibonacci) and shows a bullish reversal, it could indicate a continuation of the upward movement, presenting a buying opportunity. Key confluence points for the DXY include: Horizontal support around 104.92, aligning with the Fibonacci retracement. The overall upward trend since September. The 50-period moving average on the daily chart, which may coincide with this support. These factors suggest that if the price reaches the support zone, buyers could re-enter, pushing the price back towards recent highs around 106.97, potentially targeting 108.00. Potential Targets First Target: Retest the high at 107.00. Secondary Target: Extend to 109.30, contingent on a confirmed breakout. Alternative Bearish Scenario If the price fails to hold at 104.92 and drops below the 50% retracement at 103.96, the index may decline further. In this scenario, the next significant support is at 102.99, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This decline would indicate a deeper correction while still within a generally bullish framework. However, breaching this level could negate the short-term bullish outlook and push the index down to 100.00, a key psychological support level. Warning Signs for a Possible Sell Opportunity A daily close below 103.96, suggesting weakening buyer support. A sustained drop below 102.99, indicating a shift in the prevailing trend. Summary The DXY currently exhibits a predominantly bullish structure but is undergoing a natural correction after hitting a crucial resistance level. The area between 104.92 and 103.96 presents a potential buying opportunity, provided there are clear signs of a price reversal. Monitoring the specified support levels is crucial, as significant breaches could undermine the bullish scenario and lead to deeper declines. Disclaimer 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Consider whether you understand how CFDs work and if you can afford the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment values may fluctuate, and you may not recover your initial investment. This content is not intended for residents of the UK.
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by Marketscom
dollar index weekly analysis update.from the previous dollar index video and weekly, daily analysis. we anticipated that overall, on daily before we could have a high probability bearish momentum, we need the dollar to reach towards the daily SIBI and whether to tap into it or to test it , overall the analysis was followed correctly by price , from this weeks opening handle we saw a huge imbalance in the dollar after rejection from the weekly SIBI, this could correctly set us up for a bearish week up date . potential long buy trades on , GOLd, EURUSD,GBPUSD,NAS100, EURCAD,GBPJPY,EURGBP . this are potential swing buy trades on this above pairs based on the currently dollar price analysis. what are your thoughts ?
TVC:DXYShort
by charterprice
How Will a Strong Dollar Impact Emerging Forex Pairs?Persistent US dollar strength is poised to pose significant challenges for emerging market (EM) bonds and forex. As the greenback continues its upward trajectory, investors are advised to exercise caution and consider potential risks. Why a Strong Dollar Matters for Emerging Markets A stronger dollar generally makes it more expensive for emerging market countries to service their dollar-denominated debt. They need to exchange their local currency for US dollars to make payments. When the dollar appreciates, it requires more of their local currency to acquire the necessary amount of dollars. Furthermore, a strong dollar can deter foreign investment in emerging markets. Investors may prefer to invest in US assets, which are perceived as safer and more stable. This can lead to capital flight from emerging markets, putting pressure on their currencies and economies. Potential Risks for Emerging Market Bonds and Forex Investors in emerging market bonds should be aware of the following risks: 1. Currency Risk: A weaker local currency can erode the value of bond investments. As the dollar strengthens, emerging market currencies may depreciate, reducing the value of bond holdings when converted back to the investor's home currency. 2. Interest Rate Risk: Rising interest rates in the US can lead to higher borrowing costs for emerging market countries. This can increase their debt burden and make it more difficult to service their debt obligations. 3. Default Risk: In extreme cases, a strong dollar and rising interest rates can push emerging market countries to the brink of default. This can result in significant losses for bondholders. How to Mitigate Risks While the risks associated with emerging market bonds are significant, investors can take steps to mitigate them: 1. Diversification: Diversifying investments across different emerging markets can help reduce exposure to specific country risks. 2. Currency Hedging: Investors can use currency hedging strategies to protect themselves from currency fluctuations. 3. Credit Rating Analysis: Carefully analyzing the creditworthiness of issuers can help identify bonds with lower default risk. 4. Consult with Financial Advisors: Seeking advice from experienced financial advisors can provide valuable insights and help develop a suitable investment strategy. Conclusion The persistent strength of the US dollar poses a significant threat to emerging market bonds. Investors should be mindful of the risks associated with these investments and take appropriate measures to protect their portfolios. By diversifying, hedging, and conducting thorough due diligence, investors can navigate the challenges posed by a strong dollar and potentially reap the rewards of emerging market growth. It is important to note that this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.2
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
DXY Trading Journal DXY Trading Journal Nov 24 Price continued it's bullish run to key buy side stop from Nov 2022 wicking through a weekly SIBI to rebalance. Price broke 50% level on the weekly changing market structure to a Premium. Parent bias is bullish. Long term idea I suspect that we could see Price continue to rebalance the SIBI. Price closed on the 50% level. I could see Price come down to take the equal lows at the .618 for Mondays idea. Price could seek the 50% level of 107.099 for the low of the week. I also suspect that we could see a high resistance week of Price action this week.
TVC:DXY
by LParnell
1
Dxy longThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has rolled through markets to a fresh two-year high in a volatile Friday. The US Dollar gets additional inflow from flights into safe-havens amid escalating risks in the Russia-Ukraine war. The US Dollar Index popped above 108.00 and fades in the aftermath back to 107.50. The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. These currencies are the Euro (constituting 57.6% of the weighting), Japanese Yen (13.6%), British Pound (11.9%), Canadian Dollar (9.1%), Swedish Krona (4.2%) and Swiss Franc (3.6%). The index started in 1973 -with the absolution of Bretton Woods- with a base of 100.000, and values since then are relative to this base. For example, if the current reading says 99.800, this means that the dollar has fallen 0.2% since the start of the index (99.800 - 100.000).
TVC:DXYLong
by KingForex078
DXY MARKET OUTLOOK!Price broke the retested a broken resistance price of 106.231 earlier week. It traded higher and closed at 107.490 heading forward this coming week we have lots of economic repost and announces from the FOMC board meeting. We also anticipate GDP report, personal spending & core PCE INDEX the anticipation of this reports can impact the market volatility. Technically, we’d likely get to see more bullish price action continuation of DXY which will now impact the 6 USD crosses (USDJPY,USDCAD,USDCHF,AUDUSD,EURUSD,GBPUSD. And possibly XAUUSD.
TVC:DXY
by Cartela