USDX trade ideas
DXY - Can Get To $108DXY
This is now a very strong bounce and a bullish morning star candle pattern is printing on the month chart still with half the month to go.
I think this may be first major bounce from the market topping slump back in 2022...
From the crash low I see it as an AR "Automatic Rally" (short covering) into a 3 wave correction...
And now the real bounce which may end up being a higher time frame 3 wave correction that Elliott Wavers might call a WXY.
This is starting to look like it will be the obligatory minimum 0.618 @ $108.7 retracement as per crash structure ratios and it can of course explore into the Golden Window up to 0.786 @ $111.3 overshoot ratio and even a little beyond.
This is great for currency trades long dollar and as you know I posted a short GBPUSD trade (see linked idea) a while ago.
That trade should have some legs if dollar gets to the Golden Window, which I think it will if the month closes here or above.
Pull backs along the way of course.
Not advice
Why I was surprised some called for a cooling/correction of USD$
Daily & Weekly Below
Late last week and earlier this week, some traders & price predictors were giving their big 'scoop' about the Dollar correcting going into the start of this week. I didn't really buy it and here is why.
I knew that there was no real recent resistance for USDX at these current levels. In fact, absolutely nothing for 12 months.
I could also see that by late last week the Dollar had simply pulled back from its recent high at around 107.03 and yes even got over a whole number before pulling back and closing a little lower on 14 November. By last Friday 1 week ago the USDX (dollar index) was a mere 0.3% below 107.03. Also, look at the combined volume for last week and for that matter this week. Why and how would any instrument recede in price after all that weekly volume?
Whenever, I make a call on the USDX, I am acutely aware of its wide influencing price behaviour on currency pairs, gold price and even Crypto and other commodities.
Making calls on the dollar should be reserved for those who properly pull the chart apart and study the price-action with leading-indicators, not some sort of on the run call like "the dollar looks like selling, its a bit overbought". Theres no such thing as over bought when an instrument is rallying.
I said the USD was BREAKING OUT back when it was around 100 prior to Gold's breakout. I had concerns over RSI Monthly Oversold levels and I could see historically when this had happened to the Dollar (on a USDX chart with monthly RSI levels plotted) that this occurrence had preceded a major breakout in the USD$. Multiple times at different periods going back only several years.
Perhaps, next time give us your reasons why the USD is correcting and taking a break, that we can see how sound your technical analysis trading methods might be.
Don't do something for example Bloomberg recommends in a headline, I am not picking on Bloomberg but the entire trading news, who really don't have a clue and are chase headlines.
DXY INTREST RATE HIGH ATRACTING MORE BUYERS AT IT IS IN DEMAND The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major foreign currencies, including the euro, yen, and pound. it looks stronger as it has printed two monthly bullish candles which indicates that there is demand of the DXY as it had a high interest rate from the Central Banks. Technically we are looking for more buys.
Waiting for DXY bearish confirmationWednesday has taken out Monday's weekly highs so I anticipated a bearish DXY but bullish momentum is still continuing. Still not seeing a bearish confirmation closure.
DXY BUY ANALYSIS DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN Here on DXY price form double bottom and now likely to go up so if line 107.553 break price is likely to go up more and trader should go for LONG and expect profit target of 110.552 and 114.599 . Use money money management
DXY Trading Journal DXY Trading Journal
Nov 21
Opened lower creating equal lows, to expand to the buys side scooping up Tuesday/Mondays buy stops. Breaker pattern of accumulation.
bearish on the day looking shorts. Price closed around the 50% and currently dropping.
London started off a reversal and NY retracement leading to Asia seems likely to consolidate and expand to the down side reaching for equal lows and sell side efficiencies .
Understanding the U.S. Dollar IndexThe U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a critical tool for traders, investors, and economists alike, as it provides a measure of the overall strength of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of major foreign currencies. The image shared highlights the core elements of the U.S. Dollar Index: its history, composition, calculation, and its economic implications. In this article, we’ll delve into what the USDX is, why it matters, and how you can trade or invest in it.
What Is the U.S. Dollar Index?
The U.S. Dollar Index is a numerical representation of the U.S. dollar's value compared to a basket of foreign currencies. It serves as a benchmark to measure the dollar's strength in the global economy. The USDX is calculated using exchange rates and reflects the dollar’s performance against six major world currencies.
The index is maintained and traded in financial markets, offering investors a way to speculate on or hedge against changes in the dollar’s value. A rising USDX indicates a stronger dollar, while a declining USDX signals a weakening dollar.
History of the USDX
The U.S. Dollar Index was established in **1973** by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) shortly after the Bretton Woods Agreement was dissolved. This agreement, which pegged global currencies to the U.S. dollar and gold, collapsed, leading to floating exchange rates.
The initial value of the USDX was set at 100. Over the years, the index has fluctuated based on the economic conditions, monetary policies, and geopolitical events influencing the U.S. dollar’s demand and supply. Its all-time high was approximately 164.72 in 1985, while its lowest was 70.698 in 2008.
Why Does the Strong Dollar Matter?
A strong dollar impacts the global economy in numerous ways:
1. Trade Impacts:
A stronger dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive for foreign buyers, potentially reducing demand for American goods. Conversely, imports into the U.S. become cheaper, which can benefit American consumers.
2. Economic Implications:
For emerging markets, a strong dollar increases the burden of dollar-denominated debt, as countries must repay loans in a currency that has gained value.
3. Investment and Market Effects:
A rising dollar tends to attract foreign investors to U.S. assets like Treasury bonds, increasing demand for the currency further. However, it can also pressure commodities like gold and oil, which are priced in dollars.
Understanding the dollar’s strength through the USDX helps businesses, traders, and governments make informed financial and economic decisions.
What Does the Dollar Index Tell You?
The Dollar Index provides insights into:
Market Sentiment:
A rising USDX signals increased confidence in the U.S. economy, while a declining index indicates weaker sentiment.
Monetary Policy Expectations:
The USDX often moves in anticipation of Federal Reserve policy changes, such as interest rate hikes or cuts.
Global Economic Health:
The index indirectly reflects how the global economy interacts with the dollar, as it is the world’s primary reserve currency.
Traders use the USDX as a tool to gauge the relative strength of the dollar in real-time, helping them make informed decisions in currency, commodity, and equity markets.
What Currencies Are in the USDX Basket?
The U.S. Dollar Index measures the dollar’s performance against a **basket of six major currencies**, each with a specific weight in the calculation:
1. Euro (EUR)~57.6% weight
2. Japanese Yen (JPY)~13.6% weight
3. British Pound (GBP)~11.9% weight
4. Canadian Dollar (CAD)~9.1% weight
5. Swedish Krona (SEK)~4.2% weight
6. Swiss Franc (CHF)~3.6% weight
The dominance of the euro in the basket highlights the close economic ties between the U.S. and the European Union. Other currencies in the basket represent major global economies and trading partners.
How to Invest or Trade in the Dollar Index
There are several ways to invest in or trade the USDX:
1. Futures and Options:
The USDX is traded as a futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Futures and options on the USDX allow traders to speculate on the dollar’s movements or hedge against currency risks.
2. Currency Pairs:
Trading major currency pairs, such as EUR/USD or USD/JPY, offers indirect exposure to the dollar index. For instance, if the USDX is rising, the EUR/USD pair is likely falling.
3. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs):
Some ETFs track the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index, providing an accessible way for investors to gain exposure without directly trading futures.
4. Forex Market
Spot forex trading allows traders to speculate on the dollar’s strength against specific currencies in the USDX basket.
5. Commodities:
The USDX indirectly affects commodities like gold and oil. A strong dollar typically puts downward pressure on these assets, offering additional trading opportunities.
Limitations of the U.S. Dollar Index
While the USDX is a valuable tool, it has some limitations:
Narrow Currency Basket:
The index only measures the dollar against six currencies, primarily from developed markets. It doesn’t account for emerging market currencies like the Chinese yuan, which are increasingly important in global trade.
Euro Dominance:
The euro’s large weighting means the index heavily reflects the euro-dollar relationship, potentially overlooking other factors influencing the dollar’s global strength.
Static Composition:
The basket has not been updated since its creation, which means it doesn’t fully reflect changes in the global economic landscape over the past decades.
Ending thoughts
The U.S. Dollar Index is a vital tool for understanding and navigating the global financial markets. By tracking the dollar’s performance against a basket of major currencies, the USDX provides insights into market sentiment, monetary policy expectations, and economic trends. Whether you’re an investor, trader, or policymaker, understanding the USDX can help you make informed decisions.
If you’re looking to invest or trade the dollar index, there are multiple avenues to explore, from futures contracts and ETFs to spot forex trading. However, always consider the limitations of the index and ensure your strategies account for its biases and composition.
The U.S. dollar remains the cornerstone of the global economy, and the USDX is your window into its strength and influence.
Bearish Divergence Between DXY US Dollar Index & RSIThe DXY is butting up against a zone of significant resistance, and a bearish divergence between the index and the relative strength index suggests that buying pressure is fading here. A sharp correction in the dollar could have significant implications for gold, silver and other commodities.
Today we saw a rally in the DXY on a safe haven bid following news of escalation in Ukraine. If a major conflict between NATO and Russia really does break out, investors may learn the hard way that fiat currencies in fact do not make the best safe havens.
DXY Will Move Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 106.561.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 106.415 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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DXY bullishDollar Index continues to strengthen.
RSI support at 50 level area. The trend is still intact, making Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
Several bullish flags along the way, the current consolidation found again support at RSI50 and MA50 (red). This is the wave 3 of a larger impulse, that implies we are going to see further higher levels this year
SFP or Squeeze?Its unlikely TVC:DXY came up here without taking pyHigh / backtesting that global 0.5 (ATH to ATL) on log. Preferably she squeezes up to top out within that Speedfan Zone she likes so much.
US DollarLooking at historical events, Specially heading into 2025 as a year where we could see sharp declines in the stock market as rebalancing commences early in 2025. The US dollar has enjoyed a lot of support over the last couple of months. and could still enjoy more, but as a long term investor and position trader im not interested in buying USD at these levels as COT index is showing imminent signs of reversals coming. Coupled with Seasonality it could happen in December. ill await clearer shifts on lower time frames for an entry. retail traders also are 80% long EURUSD, the moment they start selling i will buy and hold.
U.S. Dollar IndexHello to all dear traders. I apologize for the delay in presenting the analyses, as I have transitioned my analysis to the daily timeframe, which has allowed me to examine the market with greater depth and precision.
Currently, we are examining the chart of the DXY (Dollar Index). Based on previous forecasts, the significant growth we are witnessing in this chart was entirely anticipated. In the prior price leg, where we observed the formation of a Change of Character (CHoCH), my strategy focused on the order block extreme, and as we can see, the upward momentum of the dollar has continued, bolstered by relevant news.
It is expected that we will witness a Break of Structure (BOS) on the daily timeframe, followed by a price correction. The key point is that if the price reaches the specified order flow or order block, these levels represent excellent entry points for buying the dollar.
Therefore, it is advisable to look for a timely entry for a buying opportunity at this juncture, which I have clearly marked on the chart. I anticipate that the dollar will continue to rise; however, entering a trade will only be viable if the price reaches these target levels.
This chart has been presented in a very clear and understandable manner, designed for mapping and capitalizing on opportunities for you, esteemed traders. Wishing you all great success!
Thank you very much,
Fereydoon Bahrami
"A retail trader in the Wall Street trading center (Forex)."
DOLLAR Hit its head ouch!Okay What i see is the dollar made it to "Grandma's house" the main Resistance area on the Monthly time frame. This area has not been broken in 2 years! I am looking for reversals on the smaller time frame like the 4 hour. The MAs are not in a "fan pattern" letting me know momentum has pulled back. I will be looking for Sells with USDXXX pairs and buy entries for XXXUSD pairs. I will be sending some pair examples
#dxy #elliottwave long buy setup wave c 20Nov24This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
DXY DOLLAR INDEX : My vision hello guys not gonna lie i was bearish on dxy last quarter my first target was hit but suddenly price showed signs of bullishness i see price going up for previous year high.
what ifdxy view i just want to leave there for my lulz and see what happens in a couple years so i can lol at myself yet again
Tuesday DXY update for week of 11/17What a quarter for DXY. "bullish dxy" overall until otherwise. Last week we had an expansive bullish weekly candle. I am anticipating possibly an inside weekly candle. I'm keeping my eye on the liquidity near by being previous weekly high and 50% of previous weekly candle. As of Tuesday i see a nice array in discount of the daily range.
Dxy down setup for allThe US Dollar (USD) holds ground at rather elevated levels on Monday with a very calm start of the week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slightly in the red near a fresh year-to-date high reached last Thursday above 106.50. The main driver for the currency on Monday is the green light from the Biden Administration on Sunday for Ukraine to use long-range US missiles to target Russian infrastructures within Russian borders, just ahead of the G20 meeting in Rio De Janeiro this Monday. The US response comes after Moscow deployed nearly 50,000 troops to Kursk, the southern Russian region. Reporting on that, “the change comes largely in response to Russia's deployment of North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv,” Reuters said.,.
