Another chance to go LONG on EURUSDIt's never too late to join the party. Just because you did not catch it at the bottom does not mean you are excluded from the party. Some parties last longer than expected and I think this EURSD LONG party has barely started........... Please DYODDLongby dchua19690
Correction The corrective trend is expected to advance to the specified support range. Then, according to the behavior of the price, possible scenarios have been identified Shortby STPFOREX0
DXY (LONG) 12345 move completed of Elliott's wave we in ABC move now B-C. Bullish dollarLongby MR_US30_ZAR1
[US Index] The forecasting of DXY's price action The forecasting of DXY's price action on Sept 11th, 2024by vnforecaster1
DXY MARKET OUTLOOK AHEAD OF CPIPrice has been on a shorterm bearish trend for past 20 trading days now. Price is currently at $101.618 few pips away from the support level of 100.864 ahead of US INFLATION RATE REPORT, are we going to experience a continuous bearish trend or are we likely to see price hold strong at the support? Fundamentals, investors are anticipating a same as previous outcome which may likely place price on a hold phase.Shortby Cartela0
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices11/9/2024Daily Technical Analysis of Gold, Currencies, and Indices - September 11, 2024 Introduction: Greetings, I am Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, Financial Markets Expert, bringing you the daily technical analysis of the most important currency pairs, commodities, and indices for Wednesday, September 11, 2024. Key Economic Data: Before starting the technical analysis segment, let’s review the key economic data expected today, which will significantly impact price movements: • At 9:00 AM Mecca time, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the British Pound will be released. • At 3:30 PM Mecca time, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI, key inflation indicators, will be announced. • At 5:30 PM Mecca time, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventory report will be published. Technical Analysis: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure, with prices continuing to trade below the 102 level, which signals potential downside risks towards the 100.500 and 99 levels. A sustained breakout above 102 is needed for the index to maintain its bullish momentum. EUR/USD: Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading near the critical support level at 1.10. Breaking below this level could trigger a move toward 1.0850 in the medium term. However, as long as the pair stays above 1.10, the positive outlook remains intact. GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair continues to trade under pressure, remaining below the 1.31 level. This suggests a bearish scenario targeting 1.29700 and 1.28500 in the medium term. The bearish outlook will be invalidated if prices reclaim 1.31. USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair remains under downward pressure, with prices trading below 145 yen. This supports a bearish scenario, targeting 140 yen in the short term and potentially 134 yen in the medium term. A move above 145 yen is required to invalidate this bearish outlook. USD/CHF: The pair is trading under pressure, with prices below 0.58100, supporting a bearish scenario targeting 0.5700 and 0.5630. This outlook will remain intact unless the pair climbs above 0.58100. AUD/USD: The AUD/USD pair continues to trade lower, and a break below 0.66700 could lead to further declines toward 0.6500, with medium-term targets around 0.6200. The bearish scenario will be canceled if prices rise above 0.66700. NZD/USD: The NZD/USD pair remains pressured, and the downtrend will continue if prices break below 0.61000, with a potential move toward 0.60500 in the medium term. USD/CAD: The USD/CAD pair is attempting to capitalize on falling oil prices due to the positive correlation between the Canadian dollar and crude oil. If prices break above 1.36000, we could see an upward move toward 1.37500 and 1.39000 in the medium term. GBP/JPY: The GBP/JPY pair is approaching a critical level at 184 yen. A break below this level could trigger a sharp decline toward 177.50 and 170 yen in the medium term. EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair remains under pressure, and a confirmed break below 158 yen could lead to a decline toward 153 yen and 148 yen. EUR/GBP: The EUR/GBP pair is trying to break free from selling pressure, and a move above 0.80500 could result in an improvement in performance, targeting higher levels. USD/TRY: If the USD/TRY pair holds above 34 lira, we could see prices rise toward 34.50 and 35 lira. Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Bitcoin is still trying to shake off selling pressure, and breaking above $60,000 is a critical level to shift Bitcoin into a stronger upward trajectory. Ethereum (ETH/USD): Ethereum continues to trade under pressure, but holding above $2,200 keeps some bullish hopes alive. To achieve further gains, Ethereum must surpass the $2,400 level. Ripple (XRP/USD): Ripple remains under pressure, with prices below $0.5500, increasing the likelihood of further declines toward $0.4800 and $0.4000 in the medium term. Gold (XAU/USD): Gold is attempting to regain its strength, and if prices can break above $2,520, we could see a rally toward $2,560 and $2,600, with potential new record highs around $2,700 in the medium term. The bullish scenario remains in place as long as prices stay above $2,460. Crude Oil (WTI): Crude oil remains under pressure, with prices below $70 per barrel, signaling potential declines toward $64 and $60 in the upcoming sessions. Silver (XAG/USD): Silver is still under pressure, and it won’t be able to recover previous losses unless prices move back above $29. Until then, the downside risks remain. Natural Gas (NG): Natural gas is trying to recover from selling pressure, but we need to see a confirmed breakout above $2.20 on the 4-hour chart to confirm further upside. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): The Dow Jones remains under pressure, with prices holding below 41,000 points. A break below 40,000 points could lead to further losses down to 39,000 points. NASDAQ: The NASDAQ remains pressured, and with prices below 19,250 points, the risk of a decline toward 18,250 points and lower is increasing. FTSE (FTSE 100): A break below 8,200 points could lead to a drop toward 8,050 in the short term, and possibly 7,900 in the medium term. DAX (Germany): The DAX is trying to maintain its bullish stance, but a break below 18,200 points could create selling opportunities targeting 17,516 and 16,880 points. CAC (France): The CAC remains under pressure, and staying below 7,600 points supports a potential drop toward 7,200 and lower. Nikkei (Japan): The Nikkei is trading under pressure, and staying below 37,000 points increases the likelihood of a drop toward 35,000 and 33,000 points in the medium term. Conclusion: That concludes today’s daily technical analysis. Thank you for following along. Please accept my best regards, and until next time, stay safe. This analysis has been prepared by Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, Financial Markets Expert, based on current market data and trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is advisable to keep track of economic updates when making informed decisions.by MohammedQais1
DXYAlso bearish contex is valid. Fake breakout high of 4h tr. Entry 15m RSI divergence.Shortby PEYMANDEHGHAN_790
USD, DXY Support Structure Ahead of CPI While the US Dollar has technically set a fresh yearly low, sellers were unable to get much run below the Dec 2023 swing low of 100.62. That price has since stalled the sell-off with support holding the line for the past few weeks. Given the upcoming CPI report and the FOMC rate decision next week, this could change, of course, but at this stage there's also an opening door for bulls given technical structure combined with those drivers on the horizon. For reference points, resistance levels exist at 102, 102.16 and 102.35. If bulls can drive through that, there will be a greater show of control and this is something that can further open the door for topside swing continuation. - jsby FOREXcom2
DXY: Market Is Looking Up! Buy! Welcome to our daily DXY prediction! We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 101.957 Wish you good luck in trading to you all!Longby XauusdGoldForexSignals111
Dxy for buyIf dxy should break above the trendline and support, wait for retest of the broken zone and look for buys. The trade becomes invalid if does not break above the aforementioned.by makindetoyosi20
shortSo it seems like DXY is creating a double top so I believe the dollar is going down and the first TP for me would be 101.500. Shortby ShyGirlTheTrader0
#DXY Continues Down to the next consecutive 3 Support levels#DXY Continues Down to the next consecutive 3 Support levels. Whereas we expect #GOLD to set the next all time High in the coming weeks.Shortby RASHIDTESHAEVUpdated 2
#DXY Continues Down to the next consecutive 3 Support levels#DXY Continues Down to the next consecutive 3 Support levels. Whereas we expect #GOLD to set the next all time High in the coming weeks.Shortby RASHIDTESHAEVUpdated 1
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices10/9/2024Daily Technical Analysis for Gold, Currencies, and Indices - September 10, 2024 Introduction: Greetings, this is Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, financial markets expert, with the daily technical analysis for the most important currency pairs, commodities, and indices for Tuesday, September 10, 2024. Key Economic Data: Before starting the technical analysis, let’s highlight the key economic data scheduled for today that may impact price movements: • 9:00 AM Mecca Time: The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released, a key inflation indicator for the Eurozone’s largest economy. • 3:25 PM Mecca Time: A speech from Mr. Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, which could provide insights into Canada’s monetary policy and market movements. Technical Analysis: US Dollar Index (DXY): • The US Dollar Index continues its upward corrective wave, but trading below the 102 level keeps the index under pressure. • A break above 102 could extend the correction toward 103.200. • Trading below 102 suggests potential further downside toward the 100.300 support level. EUR/USD: • The pair is in a downward corrective move, approaching significant support at 1.1000. • As long as it trades above 1.1000, the scenario remains positive with targets at 1.1200 on the short-term. • A break below 1.1000 would lead to a deeper correction. GBP/USD: • The pair is approaching key support at 1.3100. A break below this level could trigger a strong bearish wave toward 1.2900 and 1.2850. • Staying above 1.3100 would keep the bullish outlook intact. USD/JPY: • The pair remains under pressure as long as it trades below 145 yen, favoring a bearish outlook toward 140 yen and 134 yen. USD/CHF: • The pair continues to trade under pressure, with prices below 0.5810 indicating further downside toward 0.5700 and 0.5630. AUD/USD: • A break below 0.6670 could initiate a bearish wave toward 0.6500 and 0.6250 on the medium term. NZD/USD: • The pair remains in a downtrend, and continued trading below 0.6225 may target 0.6100 or lower levels. USD/CAD: • The pair is facing bearish pressure. Trading below 1.3600 could lead to further declines toward 1.3500 and 1.3300. GBP/JPY: • Trading below 196 yen supports the bearish outlook toward 184 yen and potentially 170 yen in the medium term. EUR/JPY: • A break below 157.900 could trigger a significant drop toward 153 yen and 148 yen. EUR/GBP: • Trading below 0.8400 reinforces the bearish trend with targets at 0.8375 and 0.8300. USD/TRY: • The pair is attempting to end its correction. A break above 34 lira could lead to a rise toward 34.50 lira and 35 lira. BTC/USD: • Bitcoin is attempting to recover previous losses, but a decisive break above the psychological barrier at 60,000 USD is necessary for further gains. • Without this, the price remains under threat of declining toward 52,000 USD and 44,000 USD. ETH/USD: • A break below 2200 USD could trigger a strong bearish wave, targeting 1600 USD. XRP/USD: • Trading below 55 cents suggests further declines toward 48 cents and 40 cents. Gold (XAU/USD): • Gold remains in a corrective downward wave, but as long as it trades above 2460 USD per ounce, the overall bullish trend remains intact. • A break above 2520 USD is needed to target 2600 USD and 2700 USD. • Inflation data expected on Wednesday could bring high volatility to gold prices. Crude Oil (WTI): • Trading below 70 USD per barrel keeps the bearish scenario intact, with targets at 66 USD and 62 USD. Silver (XAG/USD): • Remaining below 29 USD strengthens the bearish trend, with downside targets at 27.50 USD and 26 USD. Natural Gas (NG): • A break below 2.20 USD could lead to a sharp decline toward 1.80 USD. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): • The Dow Jones is attempting to end its correction. A break above 41,000 points could trigger a rise toward 42,500 points. • The 41,000-point level represents a strong resistance, and a break above this level could signal strong movements in the market. Nasdaq (NASDAQ): • Trading below 19,250 points reinforces the bearish scenario toward 18,250 and 17,200 points. FTSE (FTSE): • Staying above 8200 points could support a recovery toward 8400 points. DAX (DAX): • A break below 18,200 points could negate the positive outlook and lead to significant declines. CAC (CAC): • Trading below 7600 points strengthens the bearish outlook toward 7200 points. Nikkei (Nikkei): • Trading below 37,000 points suggests further declines toward 35,000 and 33,000 points. Conclusion: This concludes the daily technical analysis. Thank you for following along. Best regards, and see you soon. This analysis was prepared by Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, financial market expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is advisable to follow the latest economic developments for well-informed decisions.by MohammedQais1
Market News Report - 08 September 2024Our fundamental outlooks for the major currencies remain the same from the past week. However, those that we considered bearish, like the British pound and the US dollar have shown strength recently. Nonetheless, let's see what to expect from all the major forex markets performance-wise in our latest news report. Market Overview Below is a brief technical and fundamental analysis breakdown for all major currencies. US dollar (USD) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR (short-term interest rate) markets expect at least four full rate cuts before the end of this year. They also suggest a 36% chance of a 50 bps (basis points) cut at the meeting next week on the 18th. Another bearish focus for the US is the slowing labour market, according to the latest jobs revisions data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Diarise the upcoming inflation rate and initial jobless claims for the dollar this week. The DXY chart aligns perfectly with the fundamentals. It recently reached a major support area (100.617) on the daily chart and is still near this level. Meanwhile, the key resistance is far away at 107.348 and will likely remain untouched for some time. Long-term outlook: bearish. Markets anticipate several full rate cuts before the year ends. Also, data on weakened jobs is another bearish driver for the dollar. Only geopolitical risks, bond market selling, and interest rate differentials can affect this sentiment. Euro (EUR) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. The primary bearish driver is the interest rate, with STIR markets anticipating a very high chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the meeting this Thursday. Furthermore, the Governing Council affirmed that rates need to remain "sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary." However, the European Central Bank (ECB) has also stressed that it is data-dependent. This means that certain economic data, like employment data, may boost the euro. Meanwhile, the chart tells a slightly different story. After breaking the last major resistance (although dropping slightly now), the next target is 1.12757. Meanwhile, the key support area lies far below at 1.07774. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The ECB hasn't committed to a specific future path with the interest rate. They are data-dependent, meaning data around inflation, growth, and wage improvement can lift the euro. However, their meeting in July was slightly more dovish than hawkish. British pound (GBP) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Bank of England (BoE) cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at the beginning of last month. However, the BoE remains data-dependent and has no set future path. STIR markets are currently pricing two additional cuts for the remainder of 2024. The central bank's current key theme is fighting persistent inflation in the United Kingdom. Any future failures here would likely weaken the GBP. Watch out for the new unemployment and inflation rates on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. As with the euro, the British pound has been saved by dollar weakness on the charts. It has just broken the major resistance at 1.31424. So, the next area of interest is near by at 1.32666. On the other hand, the nearest key support is far below at 1.26156. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. While the interest rate is the chief bearish driver for the pound, the BoE has yet to signal a future path in this regard. STIR markets predict a rate hold next month (74% chance vs. 62% chance last week). Furthermore, two-way risks remain based on upcoming economic data, particularly with inflation. Also, GBP/USD has been pushing higher of late due to USD weakness on Fed easing hopes. Japanese yen (JPY) Short-term outlook: bullish. The primary bullish catalyst is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision in July to hike the interest rate (15 bps hike vs the 10 bps expected). STIR markets expect a hold (99% probability, up from 95% last week) at the next meeting but a hike at the start of next year. So, the bullish bias is intact, more so with the rate-cutting mood of other major centrals like the Fed, ECB, and BoE. The USD/JPY market perfectly reflects the fundamental outlook of the dollar and yen. This pair looks to now target the major support area at 140.252. Meanwhile, the major resistance (at 161.950) is too far for traders to worry about. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. In addition to the recent rate hike, other bullish catalysts for the yen include lower US Treasury yields. Also, the Bank of Japan is actively intervening in the forex markets, contributing to the JPY's upside. Australian dollar (AUD) Short-term outlook: weak bullish. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unsurprisingly kept the interest rate unchanged not long ago to keep the fight against persistent inflation. Moreover, Governor Bullock expressed last week that the central bank must see 'results' on the latter before lowering rates. Like many currencies, the Aussie remains data-sensitive, whether we look at economic growth, labour, or inflation going forward. The recent rise in China's share prices, which correlates with the Aussie, has been positive for the currency. Still, there is doubt over the longevity of this run. The Aussie market has risen noticeably of late, having reached a recent resistance level (0.67986). While dipping last week, the next target at 0.68711 isn't so far away. Meanwhile, the major support level is down at 0.63484. Long-term outlook: weak bullish. The RBA remains hawkish as per the recent meeting, focusing on core inflation. Overall, it's crucial to be data-dependent with the Aussie, with recent labour data keeping the bullish script alive. However, the Australian dollar is pro-cyclical. So, it is exposed to slow economic growth in other countries. New Zealand dollar (NZD) Short-term outlook: weak bearish. New Zealand's central bank recently dropped the Kiwi's interest rate from 5.50% to 5.25%. Lower-revised cash rate projections also hint at the potential for further cuts in the near future. The Kiwi has recently breached a major resistance at 0.62220 - the next target is 0.63696. Conversely, the major support is at 0.58498, an area that it is unlikely to test soon. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The central bank's dovish stance in its latest meeting (where it cut the interest rate) puts the Kiwi in a 'bearish bracket.' However, as a risk-sensitive currency like the Aussie, any growth data in China could trigger bullishness for the NZD. As with its counterpart, traders should be data-dependent. Canadian dollar (CAD) Short-term outlook: bearish. The Canadian dollar is fresh off an interest rate cut (from 4.50% to 4.25%), confirming the overwhelming probability suggested by STIR markets. Furthermore, the latter indicates a 91% chance of another cut next month and two full rate cuts before the end of 2024. Among other factors, Canada's ongoing mortgage stress has forced its central bank to be dovish. Despite the above, the CAD continues to strengthen mildly due to USD weakness (although the dollar gained the upper hand this past week). It now looks to test the next major support target at 1.33586, while the major resistance is far ahead at 1.39468. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. Expectations of a rate cut remain the focal point, with the BoC governor Macklem himself saying it's reasonable to expect more cuts in the future. In last week's meeting, they also wished for economic growth. The mortgage stress remains a major factor in this interest rate policy, and the BoC will have to cut rates to alleviate it. However, expect encouraging oil prices, along with general economic data improvement, to save the Canadian dollar's blushes. Swiss franc (CHF) Short-term outlook: bearish. STIR markets forecast a rate cut later this month and December this year. Also, despite the positive trend of falling inflation, the Swiss National Bank is pressured to weaken the Swiss franc to make exports easier. However, the CHF can strengthen during geopolitical tensions like the Middle East crisis. USD/CHF has trended down nicely for several weeks, now looking to test the support area at 0.83326. Meanwhile, the major resistance level is far higher at 0.92244. Long-term outlook: weak bearish. The expected rate cut in the next SNB meetings for 2024 is the main bearish driver. However, the SNB's chairperson, Thomas Jordan, expressed that "appreciation of the Swiss Franc has an impact on monetary policy." This means that potential intervention by the central bank can go either way. Conclusion The fundamental outlooks of each currency have remained mostly unchanged from the previous report. Thursday will arguably be the most anticipated day due to the ECB's interest rate decision. However, keep an eye on the high-impact news events for the dollar and the British pound. As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst, but this report should help you determine your bias toward each currency in the short and long term. by CityTradersImperium_CTI0
DXY: Strong Bearish Bias! Sell! Welcome to our daily DXY prediction! We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 101.396 Wish you good luck in trading to you all!Shortby XauusdGoldForexSignals112
A retest before heading lower...DXY is around 101.17, potentially about to retest previous support as resistance around 101.2… Reclaiming this zone and closing above 101.5 could be short term bullish. A continuation of bullish momentum could lead to a retest of 102.4 around 18 Sep, tying in with Fed’s rates decision. Longby RayneOnChain0
DXY 4hr AnalysisThe market dropped back to the strong support zone (100.742) on Friday, then immediately bounced back up. The price is heading back to the minor resistance zone (101.842) before we may see another rejection and a potential retracement down. However, if the level is broken, the price may likely reach the 102.420 key zone area before we see another pullback. With CPI and inflation rate data coming out within the week, what is your projection for DXY? Please share belowby Popeson1
Weekly Analysis: Key Economic Factors to Watch September 9 - 13 Welcome to a new week. This week, aside from the United States, which remains a key focus for global investors, we should also watch other major economies—namely Germany, China, the United Kingdom, and the broader Eurozone region. These economies are interconnected, and shifts in their performance can have far-reaching implications for global markets. In this article, we will outline the crucial economic factors to watch this week and explain why they matter for your investment strategy. Key Points - Shift from Labor Market to US Inflation Concerns: Rising wage pressures and inflation risks are now at the forefront. - China's Economic Impact on the Eurozone: Trade imbalances and liquidity in China could dampen European growth. - European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision: Possible rate cuts to support the struggling Eurozone economy, particularly in manufacturing. - The UK Economy: Persistent challenges due to political and economic uncertainty. Economic Data to Watch 1. US CPI/PPI: Inflation data to gauge future Federal Reserve policy. 2. Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: Market expectations for inflation. 3. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Consumer confidence, which drives spending. 4. US 30-year Bond Auction: An indicator of market sentiment on long-term US economic stability. 5. China Trade Balance: Indicator of China’s international trade and demand for European goods. 6. China M2 Money Supply y/y: Measurement of cash flow and liquidity within China. 7. German Final CPI m/m: Inflation data to assess price stability. 8. German WPI m/m: Wholesale price index, relevant for manufacturing. 9. French Final CPI m/m: Inflation in France, impacting the Eurozone outlook. 10. ECB Main Refinancing Rate: Key interest rate decision by the ECB. 11. UK Claimant Count Change: A look at the UK labor market. 12. UK GDP m/m: A measure of monthly GDP growth in the UK. --- Shifting Focus from Labor Market Conditions to U.S. Inflation Concerns Last week, the US labor market took center stage with the non-farm payrolls report, which showed a modest increase of 142,000 jobs, below analysts' expectations but a significant rise from the previous month’s 89,000. The unemployment rate dropped by 0.1% to 4.2%, aligning with market expectations. However, the most concerning data point was the jump in average hourly earnings, which rose by 0.4% from 0.2% in the previous month. According to wage-push inflation theory, increases in wages can lead to higher inflation as businesses pass these costs on to consumers (Fisher, 1930). This has dampened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, as inflation risks have become more prominent. The link between wage growth and inflation is critical here because persistent inflation could force the Fed to maintain a more hawkish stance at its upcoming FOMC meeting (September 17-18, 2024). Hypothesis: Stronger-than-expected wage growth will push inflationary pressures higher, leading the Federal Reserve to delay any potential rate cuts. Based on the Phillips Curve, which explains the inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation (Blanchard & Johnson, 2017), the Fed may be more concerned about keeping inflation under control rather than stimulating the labor market further. As a result, last week saw a sell-off in risk assets such as the NASDAQ and S&P 500, as inflation fears led to concerns about tighter monetary policy. Investors should watch the US CPI data set to be released on September 11 for further insights into inflationary pressures. In addition to the CPI data, we recommend monitoring the Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations and Consumer Sentiment data on September 13. These indicators provide forward-looking views of inflation and consumer financial security, which are critical to assessing potential shifts in economic growth and inflation dynamics. Moreover, the US 30-year bond auction will give us a sense of investor sentiment regarding long-term inflation risks and the broader US economic outlook. --- China’s Economic Impact on the Eurozone China, as a major trading partner for Europe, plays a pivotal role in shaping the Eurozone’s economic health. A slowdown in China’s trade activity could hurt European exports, particularly in sectors like automobiles and industrial machinery, which rely heavily on Chinese demand (Krugman & Obstfeld, 2009). For instance, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is highly dependent on exports to China, and any disruption here could spell trouble for the Eurozone. Hypothesis: A declining trade balance in China will reduce European export demand, particularly in the automotive and industrial sectors. Weakening Chinese trade figures could lead to a slowdown in German manufacturing, further exacerbating the already fragile Eurozone economy. This week, the China Trade Balance data and M2 Money Supply y/y will be crucial. The trade balance will give us insight into China’s external demand, while M2 will indicate liquidity conditions within China. If liquidity is tightening, this could also signal weaker consumer demand within China, compounding the global trade slowdown. --- European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decisions On September 12, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce its policy interest rate. With inflation remaining below target and key sectors like manufacturing still struggling, a rate cut is on the table. Germany’s industrial sector, in particular, has been grappling with energy cost shocks, exacerbated by the loss of cheap energy from the Nord Stream pipeline bombing. Hypothesis: The ECB may cut rates to support economic growth in the Eurozone, especially in countries like Germany where manufacturing has been hit hard by energy shortages. This is consistent with monetary policy theory, where central banks cut rates to stimulate investment and spending when growth is weak (Friedman & Schwartz, 1963). However, investors should be mindful that a rate cut could weaken the euro in the short term, though it could stimulate economic activity over the long term. Watch German Final CPI m/m and German WPI m/m data this week for further insights into the health of Germany’s manufacturing sector and how inflation is evolving. These indicators will help assess whether the ECB’s rate cut could provide the necessary stimulus. --- The British Economy Despite the UK’s political and economic challenges, the pound sterling remains one of the world’s major currencies. Changes in the UK economy can still influence global currency markets and trade. This week, labor market data (UK Claimant Count Change) and GDP growth will be key indicators to watch. Labor market weakness could signal broader economic stagnation, which, combined with political instability, could put downward pressure on the pound. Hypothesis: A weaker-than-expected labor market report could push the UK closer to stagflation, pressuring the Bank of England to keep rates lower for longer. This would weaken the pound as investors seek higher yields elsewhere (Campbell & Shiller, 1998). Additionally, UK GDP m/m will offer insights into whether the economy is growing despite these challenges. If growth is stagnant, it will reinforce the view that the UK’s economic recovery is faltering, further complicating policy decisions. --- Conclusion This week, inflation concerns dominate the global economic outlook. The US is grappling with rising wages, China’s trade balance is critical for Europe’s prospects, and the ECB’s decision could set the tone for the Eurozone’s economic recovery. In the UK, weak labor market data and sluggish growth could spell trouble for the pound. As always, investors should remain cautious and stay updated on economic data releases to adjust their portfolios accordingly. by ThaiAnalyst1
US Dollar RenkoIs the top in the US Dollar behind us? #usdollar #dxy 12 period moving averageby Badcharts5