PAYC analysis made by Trading as a Business It is simply an idea to get a long position in discount with a target to relatively equal highs.
Luxury in simplicity.
PAYC analysis made by Trading as a Business
0PY trade ideas
7/9/24 - $payc - Starting small position ~$1407/9/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:PAYC
Starting small position ~$140
- thanks for the DM, my friend
- re-evaluating my prior views (go read 5/1 if interested)
- B2B has been a chitty factor YTD owing to 1) biz cut back on spending/ trough year for a lot of names or slower growth lower guides in 1H and 2) fear that AI will further hamper growth prospects
- these fears aren't irrational
- but a name like NYSE:PAYC still has flat growth in tough 2020 and in tough 2024 too, accelerating out and good track record
- not exactly 3.5% fcf yield unless i get a bit more optimistic about 2H, but with mid teens 2Y cagr on revenue, that's better than cash
- 18x PE not excellent unless we can hold for 12-mo, 15x is more obvious and that's a $120 stock price
- concerned that the low bid stuff gets rekt quickly if we get risk off on index and THAT'S the spot where you want to deploy quickly
- genuinely think we've gone too far too fast on a lot of quality B2B names (not all!) and this is an example of one that will recover and is good quality, generates cash, can do some buyback
- instead of swinging 1-2% size at $140, i'd like to own this one - so i'm only going to start w/ 50 bps. this will allow me to add another 50-100 bps at low $130s and if we do enter the $120s i could take it to a 2-3% position with conviction.
- comfortable that my drawdown here is 15-20% max (in my estimation) with good multi-year compounding potential, but i'm just mindful of the macro/ other beta-related risk off events that keep me from getting too big too fast
Short term trading vs Long term investingSomeone asked me to chart this company. Here you go !
On a short term trade basis, you are likely not to have too big a stop loss gap to consolidate your capital base to fire more ammo on other stocks. However, if you are a long term investor and believes in the fundamentals of this company (please DYODD) , then there is a possibility that it might revisit a lower rung of support at 110.78 which should delight you and make you buy more.
5/1/24 - $payc - waiting for a better entry, long comment5/1/24 - vrockstar - taking a look again post eps 10% drop and can't find the reason to take beyond a trading position if say opens in the mid 150s. why? overhang from the 3Q result (-40%) on BETI remains a PTSD event/ still w/ wait and see, the 4Q result didn't bring much improvement and now 2Q guide is weakish. this isn't unique to the co, so not specifically a concern on the name per se (it's an industry issue that won't be resolved until likely 2H), so now it's a valuation equation. 10% p.a. revenue growth for '24 and '25 is probably the best bogey we have today and while you can have an opinion on higher/ lower and either get ahead/ or stay patient or away... is that worth barely 3% fcf yield, nearly 20x PE and 5x fwd sales? short answer: probably yes. but is this sort of B2B setup unique? short answer: also probably no. so therefore, any leg down in risk assets/ nasdaq is richest - and B2B software hasn't been the first to be rebid (top 5 caps first, then semis next)... a 10% correction in may/june could see something like a 1.5x beta on PAYC and so another 15% lower beyond the 10% dip AH today. this puts FCF yield closer to 3.5%, PE perhaps in the high teens looks more attractive. net cash means buyback potential here too. risk looks better. so while it's on my "would buy list" i'm looking for a greedier entry below $160 to start buying, $150 I get probably 50% size of would-take risk and in the high $140s or below (beyond any one-off/ news related risk off/ though unlikely the case), i'd be at a full size. wanted to drop some thoughts here for myself and have been posting publicly in case it helps anyone else or ideally someone has a more nuanced POV (I look at everything) and we can debate and learn from each other in the comments. stay well.
Paycom May Be Rolling OverPaycom Software has rebounded after a big drop, and now some traders may expect further downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the November 1 bearish gap after earnings and guidance missed estimates. (The 38 percent drop that day was the biggest in PAYC’s nine-year history as a public company.) It was the second consecutive downside gap on results.
Prices stabilized and clawed back roughly half their decline over the course of the fourth quarter. The stock remained above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) during the rebound, but fell under it yesterday. That may suggest its short-term trend is getting bearish again.
Second, prices are slipping back toward the falling 50-day simple moving average (SMA). That may reflect a bearish trend over the intermediate term.
Stochastics are also dropping from an overbought condition.
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Paycom is a Buy!I beleive this is a Buy!
2018 Topped at this price, 2019 Broke out of this price, 2020 Covid Bottomed at this price, and now its back to the same price after a selloff. All the meantime this company has consitently increased in revenue, gross profit, net income, revenue and equity per share!
PAYC buy ideaStock with an excellent rating. Good EPS growth
Currently in correction. Probably completes the wave 2 of impulse.
I will take it at the current price. Exit if it falls below 260
Symmetrical TriangleNeutral until broken.
Large volume noted today.
No recommendation.
EPS (FWD)
5.92
PE (FWD)
48.45
Div Rate (TTM)
-
Short Interest
2.23%
Market Cap
$16.59B
Paycom Software, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solution delivered as software-as-a-service for small to mid-sized companies in the United States. It offers functionality and data analytics that businesses need to manage the employment life cycle from recruitment to retirement. The company’s HCM solution provides a suite of applications in the areas of talent acquisition, including applicant tracking, candidate tracker, background checks, on-boarding, e-verify, and tax credit services; and time and labor management, such as time and attendance, scheduling/schedule exchange, time-off requests, labor allocation, labor management reports/push reporting, and geofencing/geotracking, and Microfence, a proprietary Bluetooth. Its HCM solution also offers payroll applications comprising better employee transaction interface, payroll and tax management, Paycom pay, expense management, mileage tracker/fixed and variable rates, garnishment management, and GL concierge applications; and talent management applications that include employee self-service, compensation budgeting, performance management, position management, and Paycom learning and content subscriptions, as well as my analytics, which offer employment predictor reporting. In addition, its HCM solution provides manager on-the-go that gives supervisors and managers the ability to perform a variety of tasks, such as approving time-off requests and expense reimbursements; direct data exchange; ask here, a tool for direct line of communication to ask work-related questions; document and checklist; government and compliance; benefits administration/benefits to carrier; COBRA administration; personnel action and performance discussion forms; surveys; and affordable care act applications, as well as Clue, which securely collect, track, and manage the vaccination and testing data of the workforce. Paycom Software, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
PAYCslightly lower highs, looks like could run up from here, watch for potential dip to 0.8 FIB or slow rise
$PAYC with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $PAYC after a Positive over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift B with an expected accuracy of 87.5%.
Obvious and typical 397 by mid December
Should have small pop then pullback going into earnings for discount, pop after earnings
I have no idea what this company does;
$PAYC with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $PAYC after a Positive Under over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift A with an expected accuracy of 87.5%.
PAYC longIdea - 2
Hello everybody It is time to buy Paycom software, inc. I will buy when NYSE open (3-1ratio)
PAYC - Fib Circle AnalysisAnalyzing a recurring pattern along the .618 circle lines
The rectangle in white is comparable price point
Dominant Green Trend Line is looking to be maintained
$PAYC with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $PAYC after a Positive Under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift A with an expected accuracy of 85.71%.
$PAYC attractive entry point (3/5)Conviction: 3/5
could drop further to match RSI hitting solid line (oversold)
General Thesis
weekly RSI almost touching oversold levels, which have been pretty good entry points
Currently hovering around support line of channel established in July 2014
Growth
Gross margins (80%) is a lot higher than past few years
Revenue growth (30%) is about historical average, bounce from lows in 2020
Value
P/S around 75th percentile, although very high compared to rest of market
P/FCF is quite high
Potential Risks
could drop to support (June 2018)
history is a little short, only goes back to 2014
Bullish PAYC Trade Idea, seasonality PAYCI have a bullish outlook on the PAYC . This a market cycle from Nov 2 - 8, 2021 it has an 88% win in the last 8 years.
I am taking 2% risk on this trade idea.
$PAYC - C&H?Big ole cup, can we make a handle?
Watching this to fill in the gap and ride to the top.
Entry is under $230
Setting this as "neutral" but its long term bull, its just that it will appear bear for a while if it makes that handle.
PAYC - 07/28 - Cup and Handle break outPAYC broke out of downward trendline and just confirmed the cup and handle on the daily time frame - should be easy 20% - doesn't look like much significant resistance on volume profile.
One last leg!What you witness here is a typical Expanding Diagonal. This last leg can push above the trend line, BUT dont be fooled.
"Contracting diagonals can overshoot its trend line during wave 5 (called throw-over) and still be valid as long as wave 5 remains smaller than wave 3"
We are already seeing a clear break-out of the bullflag!
PAYC going down furtherPAYC having a rough time after momentarily moving out of its downtrending channel but only temporarily. This has been falling pretty fast and might fall all the way down to the lower channel line before some proper support comes in.
PAYC - low risk reward entry for a continuation upwardPaycom Software, Inc. provides comprehensive, cloud-based human capital management (HCM) software solutions delivered as SAAS. It is a growth company with consistent growth figures due to high demand.
