ALCOA Price Projection @ Earning date APR 2016ALCOA Price Projection @ Earning date APR 2016
AA Long Put @ 9 for betting on Earning day ; )
185 trade ideas
Alcoa Inc (AA)Possible Hold
Speculation & Technical Analysis
• Double top formation
o Could be bearish
o Wait for confirmation, around the low 9s to breakdown (Short)
o Double top reversal @ low 10s (Long)
Chinese Aluminum Market/Economy
China Driving the Commodity Rally
• Chinese aluminum production will likely increase by 1.4 million tons this year
• Negative impacts because of slower demand growth
• Europe in expansionist mode?
o more lending, and if there is more lending then there will be more buying
o Twenty-five percent of Chinese exports go to Europe, so what's good for Europe is going to be good for commodities.
• 10 million people are expected to be lifted out of poverty this year
•
The Street
• Prices of metals are benefiting from optimism that global growth is rebounding.
• Aluminum prices remain below $1,600 per metric ton after falling more than 40% last year
Alcoa
• Under pressure through 2015, 28% decline over the past 12 months
• China has an abundant supply
Simple Trading Techniques – Pullback Candlestick Strategy
Go long the AA if it trades at 9.82 or higher. If triggered, place your stop at 9.09 and exit the position for a profit at 10.44 or at your own discretion. (Signals are valid for today only. Always invest wisely).
Learn the rules of this strategy at: www.udemy.com
Alcoa pullback?I am a fan of Alcoa. I would like to see this stock rally, but it would not surprise me if price pulls back next week. We'll wait and see.
AA - Neutral/LongAlcoa successfully breached its downward trendline (blue) and made it past key resistance at 8.51, in line with my expectations for this stock to perform bullishly based on technicals at the time. The picture has changed somewhat.
First, note the slightly decreasing volume during its 2016 breakout signalling that its momentum is decreasing, albeit not significantly. Secondly, we can notice that the RSI is at 65 and that a sell-off of a few days is due. Finally, notice the spinning tops on the last day of trading. This indicates a tug of war between the bears and the bulls - the stock moving wildly up and down before settling into an uncertain close only a minuscule amount below its open. This is a difficult position for the stock to close at, because of key resistance it ran into at around 9.55 back in November and December. Ultimately the stock needed three tries to penetrate this level.
Assuming there is no major macroeconomic news one way or the other, I expect this stock to trade down for a few days. I see two major possibilities for it trading down. 1) a few down days in keeping with its current trend before it breaches resistance at 9.55 and establishes that price as new support while it trends for a time between 9.55 and its next key resistance at approx 10.20.
2) It may also trade dramatically lower to support at 8.50 and build moment for a time (many days) between 9.5 and 8.5.
Ultimately I think this stock is headed up for a while longer, but it needs to regain some momentum and the bullish signals are less significant than they were several days ago. Additionally, because its closer to a major resistance line at 10.20ish than it was several days ago the risk/reward is less enticing in the short term. All of this points to a neutral, take a wait and see approach.
Follow up (Previous Bullish Call)What was an ugly chart turned to be one of the best chart to find in the market. 6-Days ago we looked into the chart find that price was ready to crash 50DMA and bulls needed to prove they can take above $9.20 and head to 200-DMA which they completed that task today. Not the time to buy now but to wait for a pull back if you are no in already this trade. Still it can retest 50DMA and bounce strongly from there best place to bet!
AA - BULL?Alcoa has been trending down over the past year, as denoted by the blue trendline following its price peaks over the past 12 months or so. Over the past two days its finally broken through that line, indicating that the trend may possibly be reversing and Alcoa may rise.
In the short term if Alcoa does continue to rise, expect resistance at $10. This is an important level psychologically (double digits) as well as marking a recent peak that Alcoa was unable to break in mid December.
Volume today is already above the moving average on a strong move above the trendline. I view that (at this moment) as a good indicator that this is a for real bullish move and Alcoa is headed up. I'm still calling this neutral however, as its a one day peak so far on a trading day that is still ongoing.
A few side notes: Alcoa is divided into two major business sections which are due to split towards the second half of 2016. One half focuses on aluminum, the other on aerospace. This makes it an interesting case with regards to aluminum prices influencing a major producer of aluminum, as a large portion of its current business is no longer centered around that metal. Despite that, prices of aluminum will still influence the stock - keep that in mind.
$9.28 crucial level for bulls to proveThe fighting is not over but it looks bulls had managed to reverse recent 40% drop from Dec high and price now seems ready to that that high and print a new upside momentum era
Dont invest in Commodity stock, eg AAsad things aboud investing in wrong stok eg AA in 1987, you could have 0% gain in stock pricem, thats why i never invest in commodity stock
#Alcoa- At Key Level To Short To The Lows Of The Range! #AATraders,
A nice short to take advantage of. A nice pullback after a bearish impulse move has landed us at 50 moving average and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. It's clear from the candles that investors weakened at the 50MA resistance and support and resistance transition zone, which implies we have a high probability short situation.
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Best of luck,
Tom
AA (Alcoa) reports Monday, start of earnings seasonOk lets see a show of hands of those who think AA will bounce UP after they report Monday? OK, come on... is the mic on? I see no hands. Anyone? Smart crowd I see. Purple line is long term TL, red is short TL, and blue is 2013 low support. Purple has broken couple times. last 5 reports have resulted in down days afterwards. AND THIS IS THE MOST ANTICIPATED earnings report in 7 years or so? Good or bad, this could set the trend for the week, and without any other news, good or bad, this week, this could definitely be THE catalyst for the markets this week, unless china devalues to prop up their markets. Surprise, I am short.
Aloca Inc. Adding longs on a pullback to $9.00 Alcoa Inc. Wouldn't be a bad idea on $AA adding longs on a pullback to $9.00 then holding this bull ride to the NORTH for a couple of Months. Cheerz!
AA -- WATCH FOR VOLATILITY POP AROUND EARNINGSI have not played AA for it seems like eons. This is because my go-to, premium selling play for earnings is the short strangle, and you won't get sufficient premium out of a low priced underlying like AA via short strangle for the life of you. The other option, naturally, is a short straddle , but even then it's a slog to squeeze sufficient premium out of the setup to make it worthwhile.
However, given where AA is at in its trajectory (another beaten down commodity/basic materials play), it's literally begging for a covered call at some point. But those are best put on when volatility in the underlying is high, since volatility enrichens premium in the short call of the setup and reduces your cost basis to a greater degree. Consequently, what I'm watching for is a volatility pop around earnings such that doing a covered call with a short strike slightly above current price is worthwhile (a dip like we had last post-earnings would also be helpful).
It's frankly not horrible right now, but I generally look to put these on when implied volatility rank is above 70 and the setup will yield 10% return on capital if called away at the short call price of the setup. A 100 @ 9.87/Feb 19th 10 short call will cost 9.13 to put on with a max profit of .87. Could be better, naturally.
AA-Detail EW Chart-Wave 3 target of $11.61and Wave 5 target of $13.96.
iHnS pattern target matches the 38.2% retracement of $11.61 as well.
AA-Long term EW Chart since March 2009 to presentAlternating bull and bear runs for the past 6 years. Appears that the bear trend has changed
$SPY - $AA Double BottomAA has a DB at 7.81. If market hold up, room up.. Must close over 10ema at 8.97 to remain bullish
Favorites Indicators Friday- Moving AverageThe moving average (MA) is a simple technical
analysis tool that smooths out price data by
creating a constantly updated average price.
The average is taken over a specific period of time.
Trade methods:
- A buy signal occurs when
the 50-day crosses above
the 200-day
-A sell signal occurs when the
50-day drops below the 200-day.
Moving averages can also provide support and resistance to the price.
ESPAÑOL:
La media móvil ( MA ) es una sencilla
herramienta de análisis técnico que suaviza los datos de precios por
la creación de un precio promedio con una actualización constante .
El promedio se toma con base a un período específico de tiempo .
Métodos para hacer trade:
- Una señal de compra se produce cuando
el promedio de 50 días cruza por encima de
los 200 días
-Se produce señal de venta cuando el promedio de
50 días cae por debajo de los 200 días .
Las medias móviles también pueden proporcionar soporte y resistencia para el precio.
