AA staying bullishContinuation patterns and the recent positive fundamentals will help AA reach new highs this week
185 trade ideas
Cypher D/W TF AAThis pattern has been forming for some time now, and I've been watching for any signs of strength to buy into this security as a long term play/investment. Unfortunately, I still cannot see the light at the end of the tunnel to warrant any serious investment; despite my reluctance to commit any size to this, a small technical play may be worth a punt.
Monitoring Alcoa at around $7.70, it came to my attention that despite gaping up and looking for downside gains, it continued to be lifted into the close/open; Alcoa's reluctance to push any lower over a considerable time frame spanning at least 13 months, has instilled enough confidence/conviction in at least a temporary bottom being in place, and warrants a small long.
The trade is supported primarily by the completion of a Cypher pattern, confirmed by a bullish breach above the $8 handle last week. The meagre attempts at breaking through the 0.786 Fib. as well as the newly found buyers/short covering is enough reason to attempt a small technical long. The trade is further supported by the Federal Reserves reluctance to Taper this month. Whether you believe the taper is coming, or not, is truly irrelevant as you will find yourself sidelined out of excellent opportunities that present themselves.
The above being said, there are plenty of reasons for not buying into Alcoa, including whether you truly believe that the global economies are on a path of sustainable self-sufficient growth to support Aluminium prices into the coming months and years ahead.
Trade Set-up:
Stop: $7.20/7.00
Entry: $8.30 and below at Daily EMAs located in the 8.08/8.16 region.
Target 1: $11.75
Target 2: $13.00
Target 3: $14.30
$AA - Alcoa price actionEmerging trend in basic material stocks. One of the best long opportunities is with Alcoa. Benefits from the airline consolidation and Boeing producing more airplanes.
AA BreakoutI've been watching this for several weeks. The flags on this chart indicates anomalies between price action and volume indicating to me Insider buying. I've noted quite a few in past weeks. As it approached resistance I anticipated a pull back especially since it coincided with media reports of AA getting pulled from the Dow 30. It popped over a long established resistance line and then pulled back to support, forming a high base. Today confirmed the BO. I think this has legs. The candle, marubozu, is bulllsh going into tomorrow, This is supported by the 1 hr charts that show three subsequent advances supported with increasing volume at the end of the day.
Alcoa FlagAlcoa closed below 8 dollars in June for the first time since 2009, Price now appears to be recovering nicely here off it's recent lows, as price bounced off neckline support yesterday despite being a tough day in the market. Next resistance is at 8.25 and then the yellow downtrend line. Looking for a long target near 8.60.
Gann down, Bollinger missedAA is still in neutral territory, but once the WMA 21 is broken we shall see much lower rates.
I prefer this as volume fell considerably at the resistances Gann 2/1 and upper Bollinger.
Alcoa clone studyUsing clones to predict timing of the next peak in AA with this this chart. In the green and orange shaded boxes I am looking for the mid point of the cycle. In the next set of blue and red boxes ,now that I have the mid point identified, I am using half cycle clones to predict the next peak. Finally, the last red and blue set of boxes I am attempting to predict the timing of the next peak in AA.
Alcoa, Rio Tinto and ACH - long perspectivesRio Tinto is one of the biggest extracting companies, of aluminium, so it has a direct correlation with its price. We can observe higher highs and lows. (On the aluminium price a double bottom formation is almost finalized, a break might bring further appreciation)
Alcoa and Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, have also a direct correlation with the aluminium price. And as we can see they are consolidating really close to a bottom. A rise in the price of the metal will drag a rise in the stocks price.
RIO TINTO - The bounce from the trend line might send the price to the rejection line
ALCOA - A break through the resistance might send the price to the price pattern's target
ACH - The bounce from the rejection line might send the price to the resistance, and later confirm the upward move with a HL, just like RIO and AA.
Overall bullish signs from the TA, but also positive signals from the fundamentals which might help Aluminium price to get higher.
Alcoa vs China (FXI)This picture is worth a thousand words. It basically shows me that Alcoa's chart has been the rough equivalent to China's stock market, but with the added price volatility it is a leveraged play on FXI.
This is simply "interesting" and thought you all would enjoy seeing this chart.
By: Technical Tim, Monday, April 2, 2012 4:22PM EST
