22UA trade ideas
BIONTECH Quantitative Analysis 24/8/2020BNTX
BTNX share is overvalued, things to note as labelled as high growth share and in the industry of breakthrough medical technology, contains high returns if succeed, but overall based on current analysis, I would recommend to ‘hold’ rating, as risk of failure is too high. Optimism may spark share price ahead to grow to a cap of $105, but not a good price to enter.
The rule for BioNTech investing is to enter early when prices are low and absorb full risk of failure from low ground. Instead of chasing optimism and opportunity.
For value investors a fair price to enter is 3.08 PEG in industry and expected earnings growth average in 5 year 6.81. Thereby price range $39-86 is within rationale price bound.
$57 and below would ideally be a fair entry. Based price of $19.5.
Fund management companies added 10% for july of total share holdings , while institution are reducing 17% of their holding View of top 20 companies buying and selling
Institutions : +514,841 shares vs -2,506,063 shares
Funds : +3,244,521 shares vs -1,318,947 share
Company top management team contractual term is due in 2022 . which is something to take note as currently their share options have made them wealthy, if there company successfully approved covid vaccine , they will be able to retire comfortably, if they fail, all they have to do is issue more debt securities to sustain their position and clock out 10x on their share options, Remuneration of Supervisory Board Members have 3.45x more from year 2018 to 2019. Which is absurd. The Management Board received aggregate remuneration, for the CEO alone is 10.8x more. Major private shareholders of company have bought in and hold at 15-19$/share
Biontech revenue is unstable, cost of sales has been seen rising even though revenue dipped. This shows the inefficiency of handling cost. Operating losses have been building up for the past few years, in this pace, funds might run out earlier than their expected 2 years.
Earning per share has been negative for the past 4 years , and have no signs of improvements, only signs of degradation. Biontech funds their research on issuance of additional shares as we can see the past activity of more diluted shares. Cash outflows have more than tripled due to competing for the coronavirus vaccine.Significant amount of deferred tax assets has been amounted due to operating losses that have not been realized. Valuation allowance has been adjusted to offset these assets.
Due to high uncertainty of the length of time and activities associated with discovery and development of our product candidates, companies are unable to estimate the actual funds the company will require for development, marketing and commercialization activities. Financing through debt equity /government funding /private equity are what they have just achieved, but there is still a high level of uncertainty whether the funds on hand is enough, competitors have successfully raised more funds then biontech.
Due to company limited resources, they may not be able to effectively manage this simultaneous execution and the expansion of our operations or recruit and train additional qualified personnel. This may result in weaknesses in our infrastructure, give rise to operational mistakes, legal or regulatory compliance failures, loss of business opportunities, loss of employees and reduced productivity among remaining employees.
The pandemic has also affected business operations and slowed down r&d efforts.
manufacturing, could also be disrupted due to the potential of the impact of staff absences as a result of self-isolation procedures or extended illness.
Company have limited experience in filing and supporting the applications necessary to gain marketing approvals and may need to rely on third-party contract research organizations, or CROs, regulatory consultants or collaborators to assist them in this process.
No mRNA immunotherapy has been approved, and none may ever be approved. mRNA drug development has substantial clinical development and regulatory risks due to the novel and unprecedented nature of this new category of therapeutics.
Delay or failure to obtain, or unexpected costs in obtaining, the regulatory approval necessary to bring a potential product to market could decrease company ability to generate sufficient product sales revenue to maintain our business.US election favors of joe biden could stop trump from overriding FDA approvals SOP which is supposed to take 4 years. Thus has a negative impact on vaccine production. Significant competition in an environment of rapid technological and scientific change, and company failure to effectively compete would prevent them from achieving significant market penetration. Most of their competitors have significantly greater resources than they do and they may not be able to compete successfully.
Company currently has no marketing and sales organization and as a company, and has no experience in marketing pharmaceutical products.The patent position of biopharmaceutical companies generally is highly uncertain, and has been the subject of much litigation in recent years thus hindering or removing company ability to limit third parties from making, using or selling products or technologies that are similar or identical Company has time and time again diluted shareholder equity, and therefore has gone in the route of forming mergers to maintain share prices.
Company will have a substantial amount of goodwill and other intangible assets resulting from the Merger. At least annually, or whenever events or changes in circumstances indicate a potential impairment in the carrying value, therefore the balance sheet of the company may due to have significant changes in coming times.
material weakness in company internal control over financial reporting and may identify additional material weaknesses in the future that may cause them to fail to meet their reporting obligations or result in material misstatements in our financial statements. If company fail to remediate our material weakness, they may not be able to report their financial results accurately.
A significant portion of our total outstanding ordinary shares will be restricted from immediate resale but may be sold in the near future. The large number of shares eligible for sale could cause the market price to drop significantly, even if business is performing well. I don't foresee company will pay dividends as german tax laws will tax them twice.
Company expects to commit approximately an additional €250 million through 2023, on PPE.
Revenue on clinical and technology platforms have not improved while expenses in these areas have soared. Company does perform well in the manufacturing area which is their strength and therefore should focus in that area alone and not incurred higher expenses in an area not of their forte.
Total Equity per share = $12.66
The companies are in global race with Moderna, AstraZeneca and others to develop a vaccine for COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the new coronavirus, which has claimed over 803+ thousand lives globally. The companies said they expect to start a large trial with up to 30,000 participants as soon as later this month, upon regulatory approval.
They also expect to make up to 100 million doses by the end of this year and potentially more than 1.2 billion doses by 2021-end, if the vaccine is successful.
The science and business of biotechnology is complex and uncertain, and trying to figure out biotech companies' prospects for success is no easy task. Because many ventures are in the development stage, they often confound traditional financial analysis: With little or no cash flow, earnings or even revenues, putting numbers on a firm.
Therefore this analysis relies heavily on qualitative analysis rather than quantitative, financial methods of valuation.
Naturally, a biotech company's product portfolio and research pipeline are the lifeblood of its success.
BNTXLooks like the downward trend will continue.
I will go short at 61.80 USD. My target will be around 53 USD.
Seems like the reality is slowly kicking in...
Dip after Earning Report then re-test ATHsupport at 0.5 fib, it will dip here after ER and RSI will dip to oversold region.
$BNTX Gives Up the Vax Gap... What's Next?BNTX seems like it should have held onto its opening gains given the power of the company's positive vaccine data premarket.
But vaccines generally aren't profitable, this is probabilistic, and revelations may still arise as to IP rights. $60 support is the key here.
$BNTX Watching Ascending TrianglesWatching for BNTX to possibly break through a 2nd, larger ascending triangle pattern
VIR & BNTX: 2 Covid stocks at decision pointsBoth VIR and BNTX show similar price action since their respective Covid related drug announcements which put in their March highs. Both stocks have been consistently supported by their VWAP from IPO and their 50 day EMAs. Both stocks also remain held down by their VWAP from their March highs. With both stocks approaching the apex of their descending triangles, I anticipate price needs to expand in one direction or the other. I anticipate both stocks break higher on renewed Covid concerns/media coverage. If you were to take a look at CEMI/GNMK/AYTU/NNVC/IBIO, to name a few, these Covid related names look like they are ready to reverse to the upside after consolidating throughout the market's rally off the lows. It is interesting that with the selloff we saw this past week, some of these Covid stocks seemed to turn the corner.
Disclosure: I own both BNTX and VIR
Pfizer and BioNTech Dose First Participants in the U.S. Hey fellow Traders from TradingView, this is an update to the actual Situation and my previous Analysis
If you agree with my Analysis or find it useful , please leave me a like for my work it would be greatly appreciated.
Im still bullish and optimistic that BNTX participation will have a huge global impact. The stock seems to be news related, so expect it to make huge moves when they finally will announce to have completed those first worldwide clinical studies.
The Moving Averages are lining up and signalizing us there will soon be a Price expansion.
Assuming the 55 MA line serves as a support we cacn expect the stock to bounce off that and rise to the resistance battleground area.
I´d place my Stop Loss below the next support pivot at either 36.85 to not risk gettiong shaken out before the upcoming outbreak. If you can handle that amount of risk.
If not a LOD SL is always a great way to reduce risk.
Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (Nasdaq: BNTX) announced today that the first participants have been dosed in the U.S. in the Phase 1/2 clinical trial for the BNT162 vaccine program to prevent COVID-19. This U.S. trial is part of a global development program, and the dosing of the first cohort in Germany was completed last week.
"The Phase 1/2 study is designed to determine the safety, immunogenicity and optimal dose level of four mRNA vaccine candidates, and is to be evaluated in a single, continuous study. The dose level escalation portion (Stage 1) of the Phase 1/2 trial in the U.S. will enroll up to 360 healthy subjects into two age cohorts (18-55 and 65-85 years of age). The first subjects immunized in Stage 1 of the study will be healthy adults 18-55 years of age. Older adults will only be immunized with a given dose level of a vaccine candidate once testing of that candidate and dose level in younger adults has provided initial evidence of safety and immunogenicity. Sites currently dosing participants include NYU Grossman School of Medicine and the University of Maryland School of Medicine. The University of Rochester Medical Center/Rochester Regional Health and Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center will begin enrollment shortly."
Source by: NASDAQ:BNTX FWB:22UA investors.biontech.de
Remember, this is only my opinion after considering all facts and informing myself about the Up/Downside of this stock.
So no financial advise is given here. Always do your own reasearch.
Thank you for taking the time and i hope to see you again in my next post!
See you there
Sincerly,
Sebastian - TradingExperts Europe
Biontech AG Outbreak - First COVID-19 human vaccine trial test Hey fellow Trader,
The uprising Biotechnology company from NASDAQ:BNTX Mainz, Germany is on its final steps from developing a vaccine for the actual Bio-weapon health crisis from the "new flu" .
With Rolf Zinkernagel a brilliant Scientiests that can proudly say to win a nobelprice and a strong financial background , from big names in the Pharmaceutical field.
When BioNTech AG announced to start with the first human vaccine tests after getting an approval in Europa , a US approval should follow shortly after also.
We should expect News from those test in end May/june and if they´ve managed to create a proven vaccine afterwards im staying LONG in this Outbreak because its Trending and the Chances are high for a good R/R.
A Golden Cross is forming and the Overall Stock is positive and with a low beta so less correlation risk in this given "Crazy Market" .
So with a break of the 56 level we should see a strong move up.
Goals are high and i think it could touch the 100 mark again with reactive move down to given support levels if they arent successful with their vaccine Therapy.
STOPLOSS tight at 49,45
I hope this was helpful but it only displays my opionion and no financial adivce is given here.
Sincerly,
Sebastian
Biontech first to trial in Europe for Covid-19 vaccine The German biotech company BioNTech will become the first European business to proceed with clinical trials of a Covid-19 vaccine, after receiving regulatory approval for accelerated testing. BioNTech, which has also secured a $135m investment from Shanghai-based Fosun to commercialise the product in China, said US approval was “expected shortly”.
