Datadog (DDOG)Another huge winner since the bottom in March. Excellent risk/reward setup. As long as its above $85, our next target is $128
3QD trade ideas
DDOG Analysis Daily
Island Bottom Reversal
Ascending Triangle
Bull Flag
RSI rising since 8/7 close to crossing 50
Loss of Bearish Momentum
SMI Triple Bottom
MACD Double Bottom from 03/16 low
4hr
3 White Soldiers
Rounding Bottom + Bull Flag
Intraday Ascending Triangle
Strong Bullish Momentum
Low Volume Consolidation at Resistance
DDOG is a sell due to a high volume break below 10WMADDOG released earnings and promptly fell 20% for the week shooting 11% below the 10WMA. In the next few month it is headed sideways if not down. Saving grace is that the company has made money in the past 3 quarters.
$DDOG DataDog Potential Reversal targets
Strong resistance sits at $88.80, with 50ma also as a resistance.
Indicators attempting to reverse
Interesting Elliott Wave CountInteresting long term Elliott Wave count on the daily chart. What makes this count interesting is where some of the fib extensions land; wave 4 projection finds its end near a gap ($61.10) and a possible wave 5 projection ends at former support turned possible resistance ($83.86). I have no idea as to the date this will take place, but I am thinking it will follow the channel down to the gap.
$DDOG finally pulls back. Holding a key level.FA,
- Revenue up 87% YOY
- DBNRR(net retention rate) above 30%
- 63% of customers using 2 or more products
- Customers with ARR of $100k+ grew +89% YOY.
- Guidance of 62% revenue growth this quarter and 54% a full year.
- Gross margin>70%
- Rule of 40 fulfilled. 80% revenue growth- 4% EBIT margin = 76%.
- Good financial health
- Covid tailwinds
TA,
- The red levels are the daily levels. Daily candle rejected strongly( long-tail) off 72.15 and both the preceding candles closed above 75.00.
- Daily 120EMA
- RSI oversold
Price could very well go further down from here. I would look at entering again at the mid-'60s if so.
$DDOG Possible bounce but best entry above 57Bullish setup with oversold indicators after earnings . Possible bounce on Monday targeting 85 if the channel broken then best to wait for filling gap above 57 then entry long targeting earning gap near by 87
DDOG: Descending triangle + gap down (red candle)Descending Triangle
Pros
Descending volume
Gap down + red candle
April 2020 gap to fill
Cons
New ticker. Low sampling
If confirmed
PT1 = 70,09
PT2 = 64,84
PT3 = 61,17
PT4 = 57,49 (for gap fill)
$DDOG - Buy The Dip$DDOG shares are down after reporting a great quarter and I feel this is an opportune time to buy the dip. I see max pain being the gap down to $60 however there is a gap that leads us back to nearly $50.
A couple more things on $DDOG and software...
In general I've seen software exuberance work generally in waves. People buy into buying, happened on ZM IPO, CRWD IPO, DDOG IPO; it occurred it late 2018, in 2019, and here we are again at another software (or just were) peak. Software goes through these radical volatility swings regularly and at this point as an investor I am used to it, hence why I want to buy the dip. This is not to say that software won't consolidate for a year after a tremendous run off the lows & to new highs - this has exactly happened before, see SQ OKTA Z... etc (TSLA also). An argument could also be made that even with the mythical 'value trade' coming that takes down tech and brings the 'real' market back where it's fair valued, one could argue that tech still has more to go both long term and short; and hey, I'll make that argument! I am not concerned about valuations (although if we were to continue following the trend line I drew $DDOG would get >50x 2020 sales which is pretty crazy even considering SHOP ZM.
I believe that in the future (the near future, not 10 years, <1) $DDOG will be at new highs and buying the dip here will work as a nice entry long term. However it remains to be seen if/when this famed, at this point mythical value rotation actually takes place. Sure if and when there's a vaccine COVID-hit stocks will likely rally, and this is value. But in the mean-time, and certainly after that rally, software will be back in gear. $DDOG will grow nearly 60% with positive non-gaap net income & cash flows in a pandemic . If you do the DCF analysis into 2024 at 40% CAGR I believe you will see the value I am talking about. Happy to buy $DDOG here if software gets back in style in the short term, happy to buy at $60 if we've carved a new range and decide to fill the gap at some point, and happy to buy at $50 if we ever decide to fill that gap as well. Today I begin adding to $DDOG for the first time really since March, and I will do it with patience and let the price action play out. $DDOG trades at nearly 40x sales even after today's drop, and the market can certainly decide to drop that by 25% again if it so chooses.
Earnings DDOG Pop and DropThis is short term earnings expectation. The note on the chart is my intuition/guidance. Definitely some reversal energy in here because my dowsing suggests a reversal, however it could be up on the day 8%.
So I'm wondering if it's up over 8% tomorrow and then reverses. This is based on intuition and dowsing.
GAPS DDOG is on it's way down it would appear. Left a gap down that will perhaps be filled, one day. The gap below may be it's landing pad.
They beat earnings so go figure?
Gaps below can come in handy if I want a stock because it could possibly go down to fill that gap. As a rule, it does not seem like the market likes gaps. Plus they seem to serve as support when below price and resistnce when above price. ZS has never come back down, yet, to fill gap up at 86ish
I do not see a rising wedge.
I use Chartmill, great site, I do notice there is large effective volume in stocks that are in the value range
Things sure do change in a heartbeat in the market!
DDOG - TRADE SETUPI like the break of this support back to the 100MA here. I like the trap of these people with this break. That 100MA will move every days so watch where it is.
Looking at Datadog after earningsDatadog said it earned $284,000 in the quarter when most analysts had expected it to lose money. The stock is down about 12% right now. How does the management team not know it's way cooler to lose money? They clearly did not study the Hooli playbook well enough.
I'm just joking.
But I am looking at Datadog after earnings and well, it has me thinking. This thing has popped higher on very little volume relative to its IPO day and volume profile since that day. I've marked the POC on the chart with "Yikes."
Has this name gone too far too fast? I'll be watching.
For those who have used the Datadog product, I hear it is good. So that does say something.
