4JMA trade ideas
Almost 100% Upside Potential on JMIA / Theoretical ExplanationGood morning traders!
🔸This morning while we were checking our stock watchlist, we were struck by the behavior of JMIA. This year has given numerous bullish opportunities given the extreme rise it had (more than 1000%), which is why it has been an excessively attractive instrument for most trend traders or momentum traders.
🔸The curious thing about this stock is that the party is not over yet. The behavior that can be observed is that it is the classic pattern of parabolic movements. Many instruments generate this pattern, and one of them, well known, is the Bitcoin.
📝 What does this pattern imply?
🔸Well, as we can see, throughout the past year the behavior was a neat downtrend, with impulses and corrections all in the same direction, generating lower highs and lows.
🔸Now, at the beginning of this year we see that the price finds a clear bottom, and stops generating downside impulses.
🔸It moves in a range without generating clear direction, and then has an explosive move to the upside.
🔸This entire consolidation period was a great accumulation, to then start the bullish rally that we saw throughout 2020.
🔸After the bullish breakout, we see that the price generates a clear uptrend, with increasing highs and lows.
📝 Where are we now?
🔸At this time we are at the highest price for the year, and we see that in this same area, in the previous trend, it was a correction zone. Therefore, we expect a short-term corrective movement in the current price zone, to then continue the uptrend towards the all-time highs.
🔸Once we get to that level, there are certain behaviors to expect that we will develop once we see a clear horizon.
Jumia $JMIA | What is it and should you buy it?Good afternoon Tradingview, today I will offer a complete breakdown offering both technical and fundamental points of view. If you have something to add, source that info please.
FUN FACT: Andre Iguodala , an NBA player on the Golden State Warriors, has a spot on the eight-member supervisory board!
Table of Contents:
Introduction to JMIA
Company Numbers - NEVER made a profit
Recent Headlines - What's the hype about?
Recent Trade Activity
Fundamental Standpoint
Technical Standpoint
WHAT IS JUMIA?
Jumia Technologies AG, which claims it is the top online shopping site in Nigeria, was founded in 2012 as 'Africa Internet Group' with the companies HQ in Berlin, Germany. Jumia sells items ranging from wall clocks to smartphones to clothing from brands like Zara and local designers like David Wej. Jumia also offers food delivery, travel booking, gaming, and other similar services. There's speculation that Jumia might also be involved with 5G distribution, making it a main player moving into this next decade.
JUMIA NUMBERS
Employee count: 5,050
Debt-Equity Ratio: 0.06
Annual Sales: $180.1 million
Net Income: -$253,890,000
Return on Equity: -112.71%
Market Cap: $2.32 Billion
Should be worth 5 billion minimum or $70+ per share.
RECENT HEADLINES
Why's Jumia Soaring? - After a full report was released from Citron calling Jumia "the generational buy", highlighting how COVID-19 pushed the need for e-commerce and digital payments on the African continent.
Jumia's "Jumia Games" Jumia's "Jumia Games" launched in five different countries for JumiaPay users. "Jumia Games" seems to have been a HUGE play for Jumia, bringing the stock up 299% since Oct. 1st. Considering this move it seems that investors truly like the shift that Jumia has made although it still hasn't proven profitable.
JUMIA INSTITUTIONAL TRADE ACTIVITY
Institutional Ownership 15.26 %
Total Shares Outstanding (millions) 157
Total Value of Holdings (millions) $592
-
Increased Positions: 69 Holders 10,491,340 Shares
Decreased Positions: 31 Holders 5,527,785 Shares
Held Positions: 11 Holders 7,910,727 Shares
Total Institutional Shares 111 Holders 23,929,852 Shares
-
New Positions: 42 Holders 8,438,995 Shares
Sold Out Positions: 15 503,734
FUNDAMENTAL STANDPOINT
From a fundamental standpoint, we need to consider a few things... I'm more of a technical trader so please add anything you feel is necessary.
- Jumia is not profitable , yet.
- Debt/Equity is sitting at .06, stating the company uses $.06 in debt for every dollar they have. This is can confirm that Jumia doesn't overleverage debt/equity.
TECHNICAL STANDPOINT
Charted on the 1W timeframe, we can see a clear breakout from $28.28 (monthly level). It's not perfect but I was able to recognize an inverse head and shoulders on the weekly. On the technical side of things, we are bullish but I'd like to see a few things before we declare entry (if you missed it already). I'd like to see the price come down and retest $28.28 and/or $31.7 as support, we can confirm this with a retest and close above on the daily timeframe. At the end of the day, this could be a hidden gem waiting to pop.
DISCLAIMER: JMIA HAS NEVER MADE A PROFIT! JMIA has potential but still faces many risks including political instability, underdeveloped logistic structure, and has a net income of -$253,890,000.
-DCJ-
$JMIA - one more day?I think we have another day on this one, and at this point, I am playing it for free, so going to buy 30 min after open and let errrr ride.
The trend is your friend.
$JMIA Jumia Technologies Chart Analysis
JMIA has now reached the Overall Fibonacci Golden in the afterhours action.
This is a critical level for the Bulls to crossover and a typical rejection/sell level.
Tuesday will for sure tell us just how strong the Bullish sentiment is.
If not long best to wait for a break above $33.10 and a possible back-test as support.
Volume resistance is low and little trapped longs.
JMIA Testing Resistance @ $28Very simple, bird's-eye view just to draw attention back to JMIA's price action last Summer. $28 is an important resistance level from back in August of last year. I think it's highly probable that JMIA could retest ~$20 from here.
I'm curious to see how price will respond to this price level over the next few days. At the time of writing this, JMIA is pushing a 20% daily gain and testing a yearly high of just shy of $30.
JMIA C&HJMIA formed C&H and have good upward momentum with decent volume from the last few days. As per C&H rule it can touch 30 areas.
$JMIA - continue to buy and sellI am going to continue to watch this intra-day and sell when the sell signals tell me to sell.
For the past five days it has held steady or gone lower for first 1.75 hours of the market then closed out higher.
I watch the VWAP intra day and also use my scalp signals to analyze its direction. It has surpassed the price discovery from a couple weeks ago and next major level of resistance is still $5 away.
I am using house money at this point, it is not recommended to blindly follow anyone's idea.
JMIA DailyComplete monster for the last two weeks. With the volume spike, it looks like it's heading to $28.
Looking to add more shares/long calls if it retraces to $19 area.
Zig Zag pattern till it gets accelerated by further upside newsIt will continue to be uptrend. It can break this pattern toward upside if there are positive news.
JumiaJumia Tech
1. Higher volume at price rise - Indicates buying pressure
2. Price broke the previous resistance looking to move even higher
3. Looking to retest the 20 areas again to possible long for the first target of 30 areas and then 50 area
Long JMIAPretty easy to see
on the weekly chart, we have JMIA trying to break 20 and run to 28. A clean close above 20$ means we got momentum to run to 28, eventually (give it a few weeks, maybe 1-2 months honestly)
Trade Set Up
Buy-Stop 21$
Stop Loss 19$
Quantity of Shares: 1000
Potential money at risk: 2000$ if this trade doesn't work
I may opt to buy some options on this as well, likely a long dated one that spans out to March 2021 to give this trade some time to unfold. It will likely depend on the volume and momentum.
Ideally very successive green candles bring printed every week would make me a confident holder
Targets
1 = 28$ (sell 1/2 or more of this position)
2 = 35$ (1/4 or 1/5 position remaining just to ride it out)
BREAKOUT CUP WITH HANDLE AND HIGH VOLUM BUY JMIA ABOUT 21$Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Jumia Technologies from eight analysts is for revenues of €188.6m in 2021 which, if met, would be a huge 28% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 50% to €1.60. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €209.2m and losses of €1.75 per share in 2021. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers fell somewhat.
1% CAPITAL
JMIA cup and handle playStill bullish from JMIA. was able withstand sell-off from the 1st vaccine news. Cup and handle forming once again.
$JMIA Jumia Technologies Bullish Targets
Potential C&H forming, first target today is to
break through the gap, and if we can get above
$19.00 the August highs are on the horizon.
This could be the beginning of a huge rally .
$21 - $24 levels are a key for Bulls to reclaim.
JMIA GAP and Ascending TriangleNYSE:JMIA
This overreaction is the best, we have so many things we can't wait to share with everyone.
First we have a massive gap after the overreaction upon earnings, many of which are bought right back as every reaction is an over reaction.
( We're sure JMIA would meet the necessary in order to be profitable. )
Second, on the 15M chart we have a ascending triangle and not only followed with a golden cross ready to break.
We still have on every time frame from 1H to 2H,3H,4H and D charts the MACD crossing up showing other signs of run up
My checklist is over and ready, what about yours ?
Jumia Technologies back to $14Lets be honest here, JMIA will report earnings on Tuesday premarket and tell us they are still losing money and won't be profitable until years to come. If we do crash like im expecting we do... this could very well be the final dip. JMIA has had some good things going for it like working with Microsoft but I think we see ONE LAST EARNINGS DUMP!
CHART LOOKS VERY BULLISH but with earnings it doesn't.
