CVC1 trade ideas
CCL, clearing pathway for an UPSIDE reversal..CCL is registering notable buying volume at the current price range. Accumulation for an upside valuation is certainly apparent.
Key notes:
- Weekly downtrend line break.
- Weekly histogram higher lows creation
- Significant Net buy / accumulation
Expect some price growth from the current price levels of 9.0
TAYOR
Safeguard capital always.
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Some Fundamental news for reference:
Quarterly financials
FEB 2023
(USD) Feb 2023 Y/Y
Revenue 4.43B 173.14%
Net income -693M 63.35%
Diluted EPS -0.55 66.87%
Net profit margin -15.63% 86.58%
Operating income -171M 88.48%
Net change in cash -546M 78.37%
Cash on hand - -
Cost of revenue 2.57B 74.98%
Carnival Could Be SinkingCarnival has been rudderless all year, and now some traders may see downside risk in the debt-laden cruise-ship operator.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the sideways drift following a sharp rally in November and early December. Its failure to make new highs -- even early in the year when the S&P 500 was breaking out -- may reflect weak sentiment.
Second, the stock fell after results beat estimates on March 27. Does the market’s invisible hand see rougher waters ahead?
Next, CCL retraced half the post-earnings slide. That may confirm direction is pointing lower.
Fourth, stochastics are stalling near an overbought condition.
Finally, the short- and long-term trends may be bearish. The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. Also notice how the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is crossing below the 200-day SMA.
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Possible Breakout $CCL Carnival Corp Trade Description: ascending triangle(ta) + possible positive earnings(fa)
Asset: NYSE:CCL (Carnival Corporation)
Pattern: Ascending Triangle
Entry: Wait for a confirmed breakout above the upper trendline of the ascending triangle pattern.
Entry Price: 19.0$
Stop Loss: 16.5$
Take Profit: 23.5$, 26.3$ 28.2$
Note: not financial advice
RiskMastery's Red Flag Stocks - CCL EditionWelcome to RiskMastery's Red Flag Stocks - Stocks with bearish potential.
In this edition, we'll be looking at NYSE:CCL ...
I believe this code is at a point of potential volatility.
If price can hold below $15.12 ... Bearish potential may be unlocked.
My key downside targets include:
- $13.73 (Conservative)
- $11.45 (Medium)
- $8.87 (Aggressive)
If however price breaks above $16.96 ... Bullish potential may be unlocked.
(My key risk targets - C, M,& A - are as noted on the chart)
Enjoy, and I look forward to being of further service into the future.
If you'd like to connect, feel free to reach out and comment below.
Mr RM | Risk Mastery
Disclaimer:
This post is intended for educational purposes only - Publicly available RiskMastery information & content is not intended to be financial advice in any shape or form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a licensed professional before acting on any of the information contained within this post. This post is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any positions in any financial instrument. All demonstrated trades are merely incidental to the educational training RiskMastery aims to provide. You are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions, of which should be made only according to your own opinion, knowledge and experience. You should not rely on any of the information contained on this site or contained in any RiskMastery material on any website or platform. You assume the sole risk of any trade or investment you elect to make. RiskMastery and affiliates shall not be liable to you for any monetary losses or any other damages incurred directly or indirectly, from your use, reliance or reference of RiskMastery materials, content and educational information. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation - We look forward to working with you into the future to navigate the fine line of trading and investment success.
Carnival Cruises to New Heights Amidst Surge in DemandCarnival Corporation ( NYSE:CCL ) is riding a wave of record-breaking demand for cruise vacations, propelling the company to raise its annual profit forecast and solidify its position as a leader in the cruise industry. As travelers increasingly opt for sea-bound adventures over traditional land-based holidays, Carnival is experiencing an unprecedented surge in bookings, setting the stage for a landmark year of growth and profitability.
With cruise operators witnessing all-time high booking rates, Carnival ( NYSE:CCL ) is capitalizing on this trend by delivering exceptional results in the first quarter of the year. CEO Josh Weinstein expressed delight at the company's stellar performance, citing "record bookings and record customer deposits" as indicators of a promising start to the year. This sentiment was echoed by Carnival's robust first-quarter revenue, which soared by 22% to $5.41 billion, in line with analysts' expectations.
Notably, Carnival's bookings for the remainder of 2024 are on track to surpass previous records, with total customer deposits reaching an impressive $7 billion in the first quarter alone. The company also reported a surge of over 30% in new-to-cruise customers, underscoring the broadening appeal of cruise vacations in today's travel landscape.
While Carnival's first-quarter beat was primarily driven by cost efficiencies rather than revenue, the company remains resilient in the face of challenges such as disruptions in the Red Sea region and fluctuating fuel prices. Despite facing headwinds, Carnival's proactive approach to cost management has resulted in significant cost improvements, offsetting the impact of external factors.
However, the company has not been immune to unforeseen events, such as the recent collapse of Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge, which is estimated to have an impact of up to $10 million on full-year adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income. Nevertheless, Carnival remains bullish about its prospects, raising its full-year adjusted profit per share forecast to 98 cents, a testament to its confidence in sustained growth and profitability.
Technical Outlook
Carnival Cruise ( NYSE:CCL ) is trading with a bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 65.88 indicating the Bullish Trend continues with the chart pattern showing a bullish flag pattern and the candle stick depicting a bullish engulfing. All these signs accentuate the bullish nature of Carnival Cruise ( NYSE:CCL ).
As Carnival continues to navigate the complexities of the cruise industry, investors are optimistic about the company's ability to capitalize on the unprecedented demand for cruise vacations and deliver long-term value. With a strong outlook and a commitment to innovation and customer satisfaction, Carnival is poised to chart a course towards a brighter future in the ever-evolving world of travel and leisure.
CCL Carnival Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIF you haven`t sold CCL before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CCL Carnival Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 15usd strike price in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $4.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
CCL | BUY STRATEGYCCL | BUY NEAR SUPPORT
Following the formation of a double top pattern at $19.50, CCL has retraced to test the $16.50 level. Traders are advised to consider two potential entry points for initiating trades:
Buying on the breakout above the descending resistance line, as indicated by the dotted lines. Place stop-loss orders below the recent swing low, approximately near $15.
Alternatively, buying near the support level around $14.10, where CCL is expected to complete its ABCD pattern. A surge in trading volume at this level would add weight to the bullish outlook, suggesting a potential resumption of the uptrend from there onwards.
Regardless of the chosen strategy, it's important to implement a stop-loss order to manage risk effectively.
$CCL - watch this closely, alongside $RCLNYSE:CCL
Daily chart:
➣ CCL has formed a new LH and LL - marking the start of a new downtrend.
➣ If it can't reclaim the 16-level and close above the AVWAP from its IPO, then we will most likely see a retest of the 15-level.
BUT... 👇
Make sure to monitor NYSE:RCL price action - it has earnings in two days.
➢ RCL has also formed a new LH - the recent upward leg couldn't capture a new high.
NYSE:RCL - daily chart:
So, if RCL misses the earnings estimates, and its price drops, then CCL will follow.
NYSE:RCL - if it fails to reclaim 124 and close above 20ema on the daily timeframe, it will most likely retest 115. If 115 fails to hold, then 109.
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NYSE:CCL - on the weekly timeframe, we have a bearish engulfing candle with increased selling volume.
Weekly chart:
➢ If it fails to reclaim the 16-level, the weekly candle will close below the 20ema and accelerate the selloff.
➢ If it fails to hold the 15-level, then it may retest 14 support which aligns with 0.618 GP level.
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But if the price bounces back and we get a daily close above 16.50, then I'd wait for more price action as 20ema would be very close.
We need to see whether the price rejects 20ema or reclaims it.