Possible 96% Jump CCL cruise line. My thoughts on this stock is that it can go 90% and if it goes no further we can see the start of the recession. Keep checking in with this idea and come tell me if I was correct. 2-3 months or less from now.
CVC1 trade ideas
CCL will become a penny stock or go bankrupt Fundamentally this stock is going to become a penny stock or even go bankrupt if there isn't a speedy recovery in the cruise line industry. I see a lot of people thinking this a "value pick" and nothing could be further from the truth.
Pre-covid between 2010-2019 their operating income fluctuated between $1-3 billion with $200-$300 million in interest expenses. Also it should be noted pre 2015 when oil was around $90-100 a barrel their operating margin was around 10% compared compared to the high teens when oil was cheaper. During this period their operating income was in the sub $2 billion with only $200-$300 million of interest expenses.
Now when you factor in they increased their share base by 65% and completely destroyed their balance sheet taking a additional $20 billion in debt their outlooks is pretty much sealed as their their interest expense is now at about $1.5 billion per year. Additionally half this debt has variable interest rates which is a double edged sword, strong economy interest rates go up and their interest rates may go up, if the economy weakens interest rates go down but their business declines as well. They also have lost the majority of equity on their balance sheet not giving them a cushion a safety in the future.
So now even if we are optimistic and overnight their business returns to a comparable period of where their operating margin was between $1-2 billion their interest expense will eat up the majority of that profit. This leaves them with maybe a few hundred million in profit. To even justify the current value very optimistically they would need to currently making $1 billion net profit which leaves their EPS around maybe 75 cents a share at about a 12PE.
Even in a recovery scenario I think $CCL would trade sub 10 PE due to their extremely damaged balance sheet with very high interest expense, the fact there will be no dividends any time soon, the debt they accrued would take over a decade to pay off, and the ongoing perceived fragility of this industry.
While saying all of this their next quarter they will be reporting what is typically the best season of the year and with everyone traveling the numbers may give investors hope and create a dead cat bounce.
If they continue to have unprofitable quarters their chances of bankruptcy or restructuring gets higher and higher.
Bullish Carnival Cruise Swing TradeIt looks like the MACD just turned green and broke a previous resistance line on the daily chart. We could possibly see a future pump as long and the price holds above previous resistance line.
If your placeing long positions. Here are prices you may want to consider taking profits.
1st TP is at $13
2nd TP is at $16
CCL A Wall St Firm Last Week Said This Name Could Go BkThis name CCL has taken a major hit - see title here- IF and Only If - this name drops to $1 we will probably get very long - we do agree with this WAll St call Not advice do your own DD
MEGAPHONE CARNIVAL CRUISE LINEMay I keep this short and sweet? Okay, good. The price of CCL has reached 1990's levels and 'pandemic' lows. This is a bit overdone in my opinion. I shall begin nibbling from here.
CCL - BUY OPPORTUNITYCarnival Corp is expected to report a smaller quarterly loss and a spike in revenue when it announces second-quarter results today before the opening of the market.
The price has reached a strong support zone, giving us a good short-term buy opportunity and an acceptable risk-reward ratio.
The next stop will be the resistance located around $ 15
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Possible future? High risk.Is this the bottom?
Could it touch the corona low?
Could they get bankrupt?
For sure: High risk! It seems inflation is a huge threat for them.
Analysis:
Head and shoulders pattern on the weekly. Price target reached.
M pattern on the weekly. Price target also reached.
Downtrend still active.
Possibilities:
Huge W pattern, but could also end in a huge M pattern (to 0))
Probably corona low is getting touched. If it closes above, we formed a higher low.
No financial advise.
CCLLONG-TERM: Retesting Covid Crash Lows with a scuffed bullish bat and classic bullish divergence. (not financial advice)
#CCL $CCL at extreme support area 🥶 sshould see a big move to downside below 7.79, but RSI is getting very oversold now.. so don't rush into any shorts now
Long trigger is at 13.04, a break of this resistance will send it to 16.34-21.73-27.34
Carnival CruiseA HUGE ACCUMULATION SCHEMATIC MAY BE IN PLAY.
Currently, we are looking for a Selling climax (price falling out the channel) to see a stop in falling prices.
Long term, I would like to see price fall very quickly and reject or fall below the range and commit very shortly down before a reversal upwards. This will show strength in carnival for another rally.
In other words, it is optimal to short with the trend until confirmation of a Secondary test (ST B)
Carnival Cruise Corporation ShortFor Training Purposes only. Not Financial Advice. Remember to always trade your plan.
Carnival +30%Carnival's first quarter fiscal 2022 earnings report contained solid financials. By summer, the company expects to reach a positive EBITDA, and revenue has reached the highest level since the spring of 2020. At the same time, sales per passenger cruise day (PCD) grew by more than 7%, and 75% of the ships are afloat
Meanwhile, revenue growth has offset rising spending and inflation, Carnival's bonds are at "junk bond" levels as Carnival reported $34.9 billion in long-term debt and short-term borrowing, and with the Fed rate hike, % on Bonds after reissuance will be high and the company's costs will increase very significantly. In the long run, I would not consider these stocks.
Buy
10.50
11.00
Sale
13.80
14.50
CCL: 3Bar PlayCCL: Intraday 3Bar Play to the downside on 65m agreeing with weakness in the sector due to concerns over a slowing economy. Purely technical chart here plotting downside projections; Without key considerations of company fundamentals respective to policy introductions. Bias for purpose of chart: Bearish using 65M and 4HR time scales.
CCL Double BottomConsistent rejections can be seen along the 2.618 circle line (red hammers)
Drawing the major trend line we can see bottom formations continually forming a long here
Right now the bottom formation present is more reliable than ever due to its placement in relation to 1.618 fib
A double bottom will form on this Weekly chart and reject upwards
shoulder-head-shoulder patternThe shoulder-head-shoulder pattern. Reflects a change of trend in the price of the financial assets of the company Carnival Coporation.
CCL BullishConsolidating today on 15 min chart above VWAP. High bullish volume on intraday chart. May have entered a little early (hour or so) but stop loss is set at $12.82.
CCL on the way up...?This is my prediction... What do you think? Increase in volume, and a bounce off the bottom of the channel. Might take a month or so, of ups and downs but I think we'll get back to $18.00+.
Carnival Cruise Line is sinking fast! - CCLWho loves cruises? Me! Who loves money? Me! Such a dilemma. Still, the evidence is all over - Carnival is a terrible investment. Don't believe me? Goto Finviz.com and look up the financials on this thing. They only survived the pandemic by taking on a lot more debt, and very expensive debt at that. The technical aspects of the chart are bad.....and the fundamentals are bad. If you want to invest in a company that has a -50% ROE (Return On Equity) that is your prerogative.....but I wouldn't recommend it. Now that all the speculative dollars injected into the markets are getting called back it means not even the MEMEsters will gamble on this thing. Join the 10% that is already shorting this thing and send it down to the abyss!
CCL plunge or bounce...hit the bottom of channel... where to next? If it closes roughly below $12.80 then we could be in a nose dive to $12.30, $11, or $8... Or will it be $16 next we or so and $18 by mid June?... I think the close will tell.
