Long Macys on the Weekly21/Jun/2019 03:03 PM
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Starter now
Trade is confirmed as working with weekly close above the 50 RSI level.
2 trgts marked
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I have not looked at the retail ETF to coordinate the plan.
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No position
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FDO trade ideas
$M MACY'S just keeps falling. $17 must be the floorOMG poor old Macy's a institution within USA culture but it is getting no love. We did not expect this to continue dropping but it is now reaching crucial support levels. Earnings are tomorrow so there is always the hope of a surprise that could turn the tide, otherwise $17 is the next target if $21 cant hold.
THE WEEK AHEAD: M EARNINGS; OIH, XOP, ASHR, FXI, IBB PREMIUMI'm personally not doing a ton here with May opex a mere week away and June at 40 days until expiry, which is a smidge short of that 45 day wheel house I like to use for putting on plays. However, there is "stuff" to do if you're so inclined ... .
M (71/54) announces earnings on Wednesday before market open, so you'll want to shoot for a fill on whatever you do on Tuesday before market close. Pictured here is a fairly Plain Jane June 21st 20/25 directionally neutral short strangle paying 1.08 at the mid price with break evens of 18.92/26.08 and delta/theta metrics of -2.51/2.84. With May opex options having an implied of 88.9% versus June's 49.6%, we're looking at a fairly big volatility crush post-earnings ... .
Macy's has been hammered (it's within 5% of its 52-week low of 22.11), so I could also see the attractiveness of just going purely directional here. The June 21st 22 short put is paying 1.34 with a cost basis of 20.66 in shares if assigned (an 8% discount over current price). It pays an annualized dividend of 1.51 -- a 6.65% yield -- with the last quarterly divvy of .37 being distributed on 4/1 with a record date of 3/15 (i.e., you want to get into shares before 6/15 or so if you want to grab the next dividend).
On the exchange-traded fund front, here are the top five ordered by rank -- ASHR (74/32), GDXJ (51/28), FXI (50/23), IBB (46/26), and EFA (44/14), and the top five ordered by 30-day: OIH (37/34), XOP (29/33), ASHR (74/32), EWZ (25/32), and XBI (39/32). If I was going to be picky here, I'd probably wait for more ideal rank/30-day metrics (>50/>35), but ASHR approaches those metrics, even though it falls short of the 30-day 35% mark by a touch.
Here are some ASHR setups that might be worth looking at:
The June 21st 23/26/28/31 Iron Condor: It's almost so narrow in the body as to approach an iron fly, but it's the only way you'll get one-third the width of the wings out of a defined risk setup without going full-on fly. Paying 1.09 at the mid price (.54 at 50 max), it's got expected move break evens and a delta/theta metric of -3.20/1.27.
The June 21st 27 Short Straddle: Paying 2.20 at the mid price (.55 at 25 max), break evens at 24.80/29.20, delta/theta of -5.22/2.70.
Alternatively, there is the more liquid FXI (50/23). Although you'll have to put up with a lower 30-day, you can be more surgical since market makers have been kind enough to provide half-dollar strikes even in the monthly 40 days out.
The June 21st 37.5/40.5/43.5/46.5 pays 1.01 with break evens wide of the expected move at 39.49/44.51 and delta/theta numbers of -2.69/1.36.
The June 21st even-striked 40/44 short strangle pays 1.02 with more forgiving break evens at 38.98/45.02 and delta/theta figures of 2.06/2.58.
$M MACY'S RIDICULOUSLY LOW MARKET CAP. Macy's is a institution of retail, and is currently trading at a market cap near 7.9B. What makes Macy's so interesting to us is that their fixed assets are probably near that amount in value, so the stock price has no added value from actual retail sales. the company is becoming more active in the online marketplace which can only add to earnings growth. We thick this is a great value long term stock.
Macy's :120 Min Model Shows Strong Low Projection for March 2020Strong Low Projection for March 2020
THE WEEK AHEAD: M EARNINGS, XOP, TSLA, FCX, X, TWTR, BIDUPictured here is the only earnings announcement-related volatility contraction play with the metrics I'm looking for: greater than 70% rank and greater than 50% 30-day (it was 68/55 as of Friday close). Setup Metrics: 3.40 credit, break evens at 20.60/27.40, -8.20 delta, 3.1 theta.
Obvious alternatives would be the April 18th 21/27 short strangle paying 1.21 with break evens at 19.79/28.21, a delta of -4.5, and theta of 2.43 and -- for those with a defined risk bent -- the 19/22/26/29 iron condor in the same expiry, paying 1.23 with 20.77/27.23 break evens, a -2.64 delta, and a theta of 1.15.
On the exchange-traded fund front, the highest volatility remains in petro, with OIH, XOP, and USO taking the top three spots for 30-day implied at 31, 30, and 29, respectively, followed by EWZ at 29, and GDXJ at 26. With the exception of GDXJ, however, all of these are in the lower one quarter of their 52-week range (GDXJ's in the 31st percentile). As with last week, I'll continue to sell premium in XOP, albeit smaller than usual, reserving buying power for a richer volatility environment.
Single names with earnings in the rear view ranked by 30-day: TSLA (12/49), FCX (24/43), X (18/43), TWTR (8/38), and BIDU (24/35). I'm in a FCX slightly bullish short straddle at 14 as a kind of quasi-bullish copper play, and have gone with a "not a penny more" short put in X (See Posts Below).
As alternative plays, the X April 18th 24 short straddle is paying 2.83 (.71 at 25% max) with the 21/27 short strangle paying .84 (.42 at 50% max)
The TWTR April 18th 32 short straddle is paying 3.61 at the mid (.90 at 25% max) with the 28/35 short strangle paying 1.19 (.60 at 50% max) in the same expiry.
Spreads in both TSLA and BIDU are unattractively wide.
Macy's - Short Term Recovery Potential Breaking above 5/10 EMA (bullish cross) as well as trend line(overhead) resistance.
Entry: $25.62
SL: 24.70
TP: 28.00
NYSE:M
Macy's tumbles 14.8 per cent in pre market sessionMacy's tumbles 14.8 per cent in pre market session
Has Macys Broken out of the wedge?Would you suggest that Macy which was seemingly unpredictable for the past week or two has finally made an early break out of the wedge? I think so. What are your thoughts?
Macy's will there be follow thru?Macy’s on Wednesday reported quarterly earnings that topped analysts’ expectations, saying strong digital sales boosted results, while the retailer continues to make investments to improve its stores.
The department store chain also raised its earnings outlook for the full year, expecting a strong holiday quarter.
Its shares were up as much as 4.5 percent in premarket trading on the news but recently were down less than 1 percent.
Here’s what Macy’s reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:
* Earnings per share: 27 cents, adjusted, vs. 14 cents expected
* Revenue: $5.40 billion vs. $5.41 billion expected
* Same-store sales: up 3.3 percent, on an owned plus licensed basis, vs. growth of 2.8 percent expected
$M next week it crosses lower$M tight consolidation here. I have $XRT (Retail) breaking down next week. Time will tell.
$M - Put OpportunityM has ran from 18.00 to 42.00 in the past year and now consolidating in a descending triangle back at support at 35. Price currently sitting at uptrend support with downward momentum. Looking for put entry around 36 with hope of the descending triangle crack after 35. This should force a drop down to 32 if not lower. If this breaks back above 36, hold off. MACD is signifying a break out in either direction soon but with more emphasis on bear pressure. Long term bearish diversion on daily chart.
