VERY Bearish Outlook on Aviva plc (PINE.L):The recent disclosure by Citigroup Global Markets highlights heightened volatility and speculative market actions, suggesting underlying uncertainty in Aviva plc's future prospects. With the company currently embroiled in takeover or merger discussions, short-term traders are actively taking positions both through traditional equities and cash-settled derivatives, such as Total Return Swaps (TRS).
The substantial activity in derivative positions, notably the heavy closing and reduction of short positions, suggests market players perceive limited further downside, yet the significant selling of physical shares—902,108 shares in a single day—could indicate institutional caution regarding Aviva's future performance or concerns about the acquisition terms being unfavorable for shareholders.
Despite Aviva’s attempts at strategic transformation—particularly focusing on technology and streamlined business models—the uncertainties related to potential integration issues, regulatory scrutiny, and post-merger operational complexities remain significant risks. Given the current market dynamics and the speculative nature surrounding the ongoing deal, short-term volatility may escalate, posing considerable risks for current shareholders.
Additionally, the rebranding and strategic pivot of Aviva from traditional insurance towards technology-driven services, while conceptually appealing, remain unproven in delivering consistent growth and shareholder value. Any delays, operational missteps, or competitive pressures from established technology companies in the automotive SaaS space could negatively impact profitability and investor sentiment, potentially eroding share value further.
Considering geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and potential disruption in technology and financial markets, Aviva’s ambitious transition towards a focused tech entity remains precarious and subject to external vulnerabilities
GU81 trade ideas
Aviva heading further southThe chart tells us it is facing a resistance at 306.50 after closing the gap.
It could break out and continue to go higher but the fundamentals are weak so it could possibly fake out a breakout, touch the upper channel (around 325) before plunging down again.
The all time low is at 160.10 last visited on Feb 09. To short, wait for the breakdown of the lower channel (around 269.80 level).
There are better insurance companies that I have covered here .
Telling times for AvivaThere's a couple of things in play on this chart. And I think we'll know by close of play tomorrow what's in store for Aviva.
1. Aviva rejected a climb back up early last week. At the time it was blamed on Trump's strike on Iran, impacting the insurance industry who are always itchy around risk. However.....
2. It continue to reject previous highs and had a strong downturn on friday, resuming a longstanding slight downward trend.
3. That said, we can see on the weekly and daily chart that there is a trend line rising up from below - this is exactly where price currently is.
4. I'd like to see it break the moving average below price for it to signal a possible short.
Best of luck to everyone and Happy Trading!
LSE:AV.
Long/Short Idea on AVIVA LSEI am new to trading so don't take me for granted.
Due to the recent fall of Aviva, it may be worth investing in.
Using previous points of support and resistance there are two ways in which the market will go.
The shorter one will be a rise up to a previous level of resistance.
The longer one may be a shorting opportunity after which you can go long and make further profits.
I am betting on a early swing in the direction oppose to the later one, just because of the fact that a more previous support was in place.
But the latter one will be more overall profitable as you will be able to short now and go long later which may lead to large profits.
I have proberly made some mistakes feel free to comment on them and i will take any CONSTRUCTIVE critisism and enhance my skills upon it.
Many Thanks.
Aviva meeting long term overhead resistanceAviva have been channelling down for some years and is currently in a rising wedge about to meet the long term resistance. I would expect that it will turn at the resistance and fall given how established the resistance is.
The alternative scenario is that it is about to break major overhead resistance and would be a fantastic long position, perhaps I am pessimistic but I think the short is the percentage play.
FTSE Market Technical ReportStocks and Gilts rose, but prices for industrial metals and the US dollar retreated after the minutes of the US central bank’s policy meeting were released overnight.
The initial reaction from many traders and economists to the Federal Reserve’s minutes was that a December interest rate hike was now quite possible, but for some – especially the former – apparently not certain.
The FTSE 100 ended the day in green by 126 points at 5900. In the day market, if it crosses the resistance level of 5950 on upside after consolidation, then it can test the level of 5970 and the immediate Support level is 5830.
AVIVA PLC
RECOMMENDATION BUY TARGET 490
The Major trend of AVIVA PLC it is showing strength for buying If it crosses the resistance level then one can initiate buying position in the stock. If it crosses the level of 480 then it can test level for the target of 490 with the stop loss of 470.
CHART FORMATION:-
Stock is trading in a range and trading near the trend line. Breaking the support line will lead to upside movement. Stock is trading above the 50 DMA with a negative bias.
INDICATORS:-
RSI is trading near to 62 levels with a positive bias, in upcoming session upside movement is expected.
MACD and Signal line is sustained above the zero level line.
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