🇩🇪 Hypothetically LONG Hapag-Lloyd AG @ 151.2Shipping stocks globally have been getting roughed up a lot lately and XETR:HLAG is holding up better than many right now. While it's been in a general uptrend over the last 12 months, it’s the trading stats on it that sucked me in today.
This one would have generated 27 buy signals over those 12 months, and all 27 would have closed profitably. A full 67% of those trades would have closed profitably in 1 trading day and only two would have taken more than 4 trading days to close. That's an average trade length of 2.3 days. That's pretty extraordinary for an entire year of trades.
What is MOST extraordinary is the profitability of those trades. Now the stock has gained about 35% in the past year, so bear that in mind. But the AVERAGE gain on the 27 trades that took around 2.3 days to complete is 2.85%. That's 1.24% a day, or about 40x the average daily gain of the DAX 40 over the last 50 years and almost 30x the average daily return of the S&P 500 here in the US.
And lest you assume that it's the result of one big trade, the largest single gain was 12% (in 9 days) but 15 of the 27 trades gained more than 2% and 7 of them were over 4%. These are absolutely stunning results for trades this short.
So I realize I should have made this call right when the German market closed yesterday, but I originally wasn't going to do a foreign stock today. I just started poking around about 2 hours ago and this came on my radar screen and it took me a while to crunch the numbers.
So I'll pretend I took the trade at the German market's close on Monday. If you REALLY want me to be honest, I can say I'd enter in the upcoming session if the price reaches 151.2 or less, but then if it doesn't I won't get to play out this trade for all of you. So I'm going to cheat just a little and assume I got in at the close, but I think there's a good chance it touches that level in the upcoming session anyway.
Per my usual strategy, once I'm in I'll add at the close on any day it is still signaling "buy" and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
