Anglo AshantiJSE:ANG could be onto something. The stock cracked weeks ago witht the rest of the gold stocks. We noted a potential support level, and now the stock is trading above a key MA. It looks bullish to me.
HT3 trade ideas
$AU guaranteed going upStill tracking an idea that the fib retracement tool with an angle can be placed in a certain way on charts that reveal a pattern that repeats itself over and over and over moving from fib to fib with volume only affecting the speed or time it takes and the amount of retracements or lack thereof. Have started For the first time trying to implement it into trading going back to the old option plays from when I traded before using other various methods of analysis and realizing a derivative of price when exact price pivot points and unforeseen pivot points is the advantage of knowing or tracking this pattern has not only been interesting but flames the conspiracy torch more in terms of watching how price of options changes tracking the pattern. For example I can tell you for a fact that AU will touch the second fifth guaranteed touch the pink above 1.618 and to get close on timing but that's where the options take away from this fairly amazing discovery. The conspiracy though is that I've noticed the Delta of options will freeze in the final move let's say from the 1618 to the two fib when catching that move which almost always reverses when touching the two forming the top of a new pattern in a tile MC escher sort of way It's as if your call price will freeze in expectation of this reversal and not give you credit for the move making a sale order that triggers based on price of the asset not the derivative huge. No wonder options can be so frustrating. Anyways I'm not suggesting how to trade this at all but I can guarantee you without giving investing advice at all just in terms of technical talk that this will touch the 1.618 and the two fib. The only way I'm wrong is if I have the angle wrong and I will know immediately it open today if for some reason this didn't re-break the one like it looks like it did. Like I said the pattern is fractal and most accurate on lower time frames but too fast to trade without a serious setup where you can hit a button and hit a button basically or if you had one guy tracking the pattern telling the other guy what to do or the reversal points. When you have the fib properly late it's pinpoint accuracy not teaser wicks above or below the line And it's so programmed it will literally sit on the fib and bubble the opposite direction It ends up going like I wish I could somehow sell how interesting this is to some of these experts in fractals and fibs and creating indicators but never thought about selling it only proving it so It's yet to peak anyone's interest. Some of my latest long-term overlays on assets are very hard to believe even having Tesla above 300 back when it was 240 something so much so that I got out of my debit spread taking profits so maybe trades like debit spreads and butterflies are the way to go if pinpoint support and resistance is the key. Any ideas of a type of option trade I should consider would be appreciated.
#JSEANG - Time to shine?Price pulled back to the rising 200dma and has shown support in that zone.
We back above the short term 20ema moving average and the macd has indicated a shift in the tide.
Stoploss & Target on the chart.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. It is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. The result of that calculation is the MACD line. A nine-day EMA of the MACD line is called the signal line, which is then plotted on top of the MACD line, which can function as a trigger for buy or sell signals. Traders may buy the security when the MACD line crosses above the signal line and sell—or short—the security when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. MACD indicators can be interpreted in several ways, but the more common methods are crossovers, divergences, and rapid rises/falls
ANG - 1D - Possible reversalPossible trend reversal from upward trendline dating to September 2022. Break out of falling wedge will trigger buy with a tight stop . Stochastic oversold and pointing up. Could be a short term relief rally which will trigger possibly a smaller target. strong reversal candle today.
Anglo making an unexpected short and downside to come to R337.00Inv C&H has formed on Anglo Gold.
21=7 And seems to be crossing down.
Price>200 - This is Bullish but with the price so far away from the MA means, there would be a sling reaction to take the price back down.
RSI<50 - Bearish biased.
Target is at R337.00 for shorters.
THOUGHTS:
This was completely unexpecting as the JSE ALSI seems to be heading up.
The rand has been weakening with a touch of strength in the last week. This could be one of the linchpins to Anglo Gold's potential fall due to the following:
Revenue in Dollars - It's a U.S World!:
Anglo Gold, primarily earns its revenue in U.S. dollars because gold is priced and sold globally in dollars. So when the rand strengthens, the revenue drops.
Impact of a Strong Rand drops gold sales ouch!:
When the rand strengthens against the dollar, it means the same dollar revenue from gold sales converts into fewer rands.
Reduced Profitability - Stronger rands - less rev:
This currency fluctuation can reduce the company's profitability. As their revenue decreases in rand terms while their costs remain the same or may even increase.
Investor Attraction or should we say detraction! :
A decrease in profitability can make AngloGold less attractive to investors, affecting demand for their shares.
Share Price Drop: If investors find the company less attractive, they may sell their shares or choose not to invest, which can lead to a decrease in the share price.
Next analysis I will do is Gold to see what's going on. But yes, I'm definitely short biased.
Anglo-AshantiFollowing a promising rally in TVC:GOLD futures, gold miners benefited from the rally. However, JSE:ANG has given back all the rally gains. JSE:ANG is now trading below what was a potential support level, and it's trading below the 200 dMA. From this view, the stock is bearish, but fakeouts do happen.
Anglogold (JSEANG) OverboughtAnglogold shows how fear trades can cause traders to be irrational, buyers are moving in at current price, there is quite a distance from 200 day moving average while price is testing the upper resistance of a broadening wedge. History does not repeat but often rhymes, ANG had a similar broadening setup from March 2020 lows that morphed into a long bearish trend. It might not repeat the same given the geo-political tensions but sharp reversal can be expected, the RSI is overextended. This is not the place to be sucked in by FOMO but rather seek better opportunities if wanting to be in the gold trade.
$JSEANG - Anglo Gold Ashanti: Zigzag Or Impulse Down?The last analysis on ANG was on 26.05.2023, link below.
The stock traded as forecasted but is now at an interesting juncture.
The sell-off from 55688 has entered bear territory as the stock is now more than 30% off that high.
The bear move has unfolded in three waves which I have labelled tentatively.
The ABC implies an almost complete zigzag whereas the 123 is part of a five wave impulse.
Future price action will provide more clarity on the outlook, for now I will sit on the sidelines.
JSE Gold Miners: High Bearish Momentum / Approaching OversoldJSE Gold Miners: High Bearish Momentum / Approaching Oversold
A group I am monitoring over the next few days. For short term traders.
Legend = Short Term, 7 Day Trend
AU - Head and ShouldersHead and Shoulders inverted pattern on the 4Hr chart.
This can be seen to have occurred at the middle line of an up channel.
With each shoulder finding support at the middle line.
I expect continuation up and possibly even breakout of the channel up.
$JSEANG - AngloGold Ashanti: Great Run, But I Count 5 Wave Done!Anglo had a strong run since the last analysis, link below.
The rally from 23.02.2023 unfolded in five waves and price has broken below the origin of wave ((v)) of 5.
This implies that five waves 1 to 5 is complete and we should expect a correction in the stock.
I have overlaid the stock price with the spot gold price and its clear to see that the gold price has been the primary driver.
Commodities are highly cyclical so it would come as a surprise to see the share trade back towards 30000.
The strategy is short the rallies below 55688.
A break above 55688 will prompt a review of the wave count with bullish implications.
$JSEANG - AngloGold Ashanti: Great Run, But I Count Fives Waves Anglo Gold Ashanti has had a great run from the September 2022 bottom at 21300.
The banking crisis of the last few weeks has triggered a surge in gold as a safe haven buy and subsequently gold stocks.
Looking at the charts, I see textbook five wave advance from 21300 to the current price.
Wave 1 is relatively small and deeply retraced by wave 2.
Wave 3 is extended and retraced just over 50% by wave 4.
Wave 5 can still push high but at this stage I would not chase it and the pullbacks have been swift, not providing good entry points.
There is no technical weakness yet in the share price but commodity stocks can reverse aggressively once investors take on risk again.
At this stage I will sit on my hands on look for reversal signs.
Gold miners showing strength $AU $GFI $HMY $GOLDGold stocks were showing extreme relative strength last week with intensive bearish sentiment in banks, seeing RSIs between 70-80 and RVOL above 2. ATM we need to see some pull back to get a favourable RR setup. With the bailout news over the weekend I suspect we will certainly get a chance for a dip into support like we've see most days last week. GOLD is still a favourite as it has the best RR, trades the most vol, and has a decent ATR compared to the price. $GOLD also had a fakeout below the $15 pivot which is a positive. Also, the ticker name is GOLD so probably the name that most would gravitate to as it's easy to remember. Keep these on watch this week!
Short triggered on ANGA short has been triggered on JSE:ANG based off our momentum strategy. we expect it to reach the target at the 317 area.
ANG Trade IdeaThis idea was published to the client platform in the last 1/2 hour. For more research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch today.
This idea is with reference to my comment via video on Tuesday 27-Dec-2022 ( link omitted to comply with Trading View house rules ). Key drivers for a short to medium term sell trade: (1) Overbought rating on 3-day, 7-day & 14-day as well as the 3-month RSI which shows the share being extended on the upside. (2) The share has retraced to above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. (3) Trading above the prior supply/breakdown level. (4) Extended well above the 20/50-EMA Range. (5) Trading more than 2x the mean over 200 day (linear regression channel). Today, failure to retain it's position above 37300c would further support a bearish reversal.
TRADING LEVELS:
Entry: 37394
Target: 34800
Stop-loss: 39200
Perhaps tume #JSEANG to take a breath? Its reached the top of the channel after breaking through a monthly down trend line.
Expecting a pull back of some sort.
Big gap to fill at the bottom, and earnings out in Feb.
Rising bottom triangle breakout on Beautiful strong rising bottom breakout. The chart providing a nice tight stop with a 2.6 R:R opportunity
#JSEANG short idea Price bounced off a multi month down trend, will wait for it to break out of immediate short uptrend to signal short, then go down and close gap.
Relative Sector Analysis: PGMs and GoldiesRelative performance and relative strength is meant to assist traders and investors in understanding the appropriate weighting/positioning versus the overall market. Combined with additional factors, a trader is able to determine whether they should hold an equal weight, underweight and overweight position versus the index. The data below represents the relative ratio charts (equally weighted) of the major sectors of the JSE versus the Top 40.
Each chart is presented with the following annotations:
1. Price with a 2 standard deviation linear regression channel over 200 days.
2. Adjacent to the price chart (right hand side), is the Relative Strength Index for the following periods: 3D, 1W, 21D (1 Month) and 63D (1 Quarter)
ANG - Evening StarAn evening star reversal pattern has formed on JSE:ANG which could be signaling a downward move. This signal is strengthened by the fact that it comes right after a doji which is a sign of uncertainty in the market.
Bullish 5-0 Harmonic patternBullish harmonic pattern
Buying at current with stop loss below previous lows
Relative Sector AnalysisRelative performance and relative strength is meant to assist traders and investors in understanding the appropriate weighting/positioning versus the overall market. Combined with additional factors, a trader is able to determine whether they should hold an equal weight, underweight and overweight position versus the index. The data below represents the relative ratio charts (equally weighted) of the major sectors of the JSE versus the Top 40.
Each chart is presented with the following annotations:
1. A 2 standard deviation, 21-day linear regression channel (signifies 1 month) where, the upper boundary represents an overbought range (potential selling/distribution range) while the lower boundary represents an oversold range (potential buying/accumulation range).
2. Adjacent to the price chart (right hand side), is the Relative Strength Index for the following periods: 1D, 1W, 21D (1 Month) and 63D (1 Quarter)
These data points are included in my research. For more research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch today.
