LCR trade ideas
Short-Term Cycle Down For Las Vegas Sands (LVS)Las Vegas Sands Corporation has been in a bullish trend since 2015 and a tighter bullish trend since the beginning of 2017. On multiple occasions through 2015 bull, three of the technical indicators discussed below are at similar or higher levels, than they are now. These instances have resulted in short-term losses for the stock. I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the stock may drop while it most likely continues its long-term trend.
When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 71.5836. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI overbought and beginning to trend down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2795 and the negative is at 0.5811. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Both values are at extreme levels. The stock should begin to make its descent.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 94.4195 and D value is 84.1344. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is overbought, but the K value is yet to move below the D. The stock could see a few more days of upward movement, however, the drop on June 9 could be the beginning of complete downward movement.
During the longer of the two bull trends, the stock drops at least 4% within 15 days. Everyone should be aware the movement in this case could be quick. Anticipation of further drops beyond 3-4% are risky.
Considering the RSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels, the stock could drop at least 2% over the next 25 trading days if not sooner.
Short-Term Dip, Long-Term Gain For LVSOn April 3, 2017, the Las Vegas Sands Corp. ( NYSE:LVS ) 20 day moving average (MA) crossed above its 100 day MA while its 50 day MA crossed below the 200 day MA. Both events have never occurred on the same day. Historically the 20 MA has crossed above the 100 MA 18 times. The stock has a minimal gain of 0.157%, has a median gain of 5.899% and maximum gain of 72.847 % over the next 15 trading days. Historically the 50 MA has crossed below the 200 MA 6 times. The has a minimal loss of 0.661%, a median loss of 4.687%, and maximum loss of 11.732% over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 64.5565. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is slightly moving up and recently retreated from near overbought levels.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 20.5597. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is slightly moving up.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1249. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving up, although is retreating.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 72.6098 and D value is 69.2514. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is coming out of an oversold level, but trending up again.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading up, but could have a brief pullback from current levels first. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 1.5% over the next 5 trading days. After this drop, the stock could move up toward the resistance level around 60. From the close on April 3, the stock could gain 4.9% within the next four weeks. If bought near the anticipated dip, the gain could be greater than 6.5%.
Wanted to add a top on $LVS projectionThe top is where I would redo this chart and see what other information we can get. Risky. But if you're in already this is for you.
IF $LVS touches 36 BUY BUY BUY.$LVS is in upwards wind territory. Follow the lines. Bottom lines Buy, top lines Sell, unless it hits 36 (buy). Lets see if this follows the trend.
(D) Resistance at R1 Pivot but EMA50 and EMA200 have flatslopes and have not crossed over; generating some sideways chop near term.
Might be a minor bottom.
Obey your rules.
Long LVSPure technical shot
new up trend, bounce on the support and above 200 MA
Long full position for a 8$ profit target
gaming casino stocks moving up? $LVSI really like to see the kind of wide agreement we are seeing in price action among the gaming stocks. I'm not yet willing to buy into this but am feeling a blast to the upside coming especially with the big inverted head and shoulders in motion.
Possible Bullish Swing Trade on LVSLVS is pulling back, looking for a bounce around $53. If it does will look to initiate a bullish swing trade.
LVS is not done droppingHistorically when VI reaches this level the LVS drops at least another 1%. The average drop is 13.13% with a minimum historical drop of 1.81%.
The support line in the current trend channel would equate to roughly a 6% drop over the next few weeks. I am conservatively forecasting a drop to the 52.45 level which is roughly 3.23% from the close on December 27.
More bad news for LVSA fourth indicator of a drop is based on historical levels for the Coppock Curve. LVS drops on average 11.05% when the Coppock Curve reaches its current mark. My conservative play at this point is a drop to the psychological 49.50 mark. This would bring in around 9% for the stock, but could bring in well over 75% on a properly placed PUT option.
Possible LVS Bearish tradeLVS faded on Thursday, Gapped up on Friday above resistance but also faded (possible dead cat bounce).
Will watch this week to see if LVS retests resistance and pushes through or rolls over and heads lower.
Third indicator of imminent LVS dropMany historical indicators are at play and against the short term for LVS. When the TSI reaches this level is stock drops at least another 1% but drops on average 9.14% over the next few weeks. I have outlined 3 potential points LVS could drop to.
CONSERVATIVE POINT:
With the average drop around 9.14%, an even 9% drop would be around the 51.88 mark and it is within the current trendchannel.
ESTIMATED BOTTOM OF TRENDCHANNEL AFTER NEW YEAR:
The estimated bottom of the trendchannel within the next few weeks is around the 50.50 mark which roughly equates to a 11.42% decline.
PRIOR 2015 INTEREST RATE HIKE DROP:
When interest rates were increased in December 2015, LVS dropped around 20.22% from the OPEN the day after the decision to the bottom before it turned around. This bottom is the current bottom line of the trendchannel, however, a similar 20% drop would bust out of the current trend. Although movement of this nature is most likely not going to be as drastic, nothing can be ruled out.
More bumps in LVS roadHistorically when this indicator surpasses this level, the stock declines by at least 1%. The average decline is 10.85%. There are many fundamentals in play with this technical indicator that will support a decline.
There are three levels to watch, my play is always the most conservative one.
CONSERVATIVE:
A simple 6% drop to around the low from Dec 8 over the next few weeks.
HISTORICAL AVG:
For historical drops, I try to chose a conservative milestone. Even though the average drop is more than 10%, A safe play is a drop to the 52.10 level.
LAST INTEREST RATE INCREASE:
Last time interest rates increased. LVS dropped more than 22% in only 10 trading days! That was exactly two weeks about a year ago. Unsure what the reaction will be this time around since most pundits agree a interest rate increase is not built in to the recent BULL market boost. The stock could drop another 22%, but my conservative play is to the psychological milestone of 48.00.
MORE DOWN DAYS TO COME FOR LVSHistorically when LVS surpasses this RSI level, the stock drops at least one more percent over the next few weeks. In fact the minimal drop is 2.93% with an average drop of 6.17%. The bottom of the trend channel is well beyond the 6% but my conservative play is a drop to the 53 milestone which would net around 3% and most likely around 30% with a PUT option.
Historically singular large drops for LVS are not isolated incidents and the stock continues downward in the immediate days following a shock drop like the one that occurred on Dec 8, 16.
