History tends to repeat itselfHistory typically tends to repeat itself. What has happened before can happen again. Take a look at the left side of the chart and youโll see a picture-perfect breakout pattern: price consolidates, forms higher lows and relatively equal highs, all on high volume, before breaking out. Now, we are witnessing the same setup again on a larger scale. Above is a monthly chart of SMCI, allowing you to compare the similarities between the two breakout formations. What has gone parabolic before can go parabolic again. Earnings will be reported on August 12, which is roughly one month away. If SMCI continues to push higher here, we may see a move toward the all-time high of $122.90. Always do your own due diligence and keep risk management in mind.
Not financial advice.
MS51 trade ideas
SMCI: When a chart says itโs time to reconnect with the AI hypeOn the daily chart, Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is showing a clean bullish setup. Price broke out of a descending trendline (green dashed), confirmed it with a retest, and is now consolidating above the breakout zone. The golden cross โ where the MA50 crossed above the MA200 โ confirms a long-term trend reversal.
Volume profile indicates strong accumulation near $41โ43. The 0.5 Fibonacci level at $41.84 acted as support. Above the current range, thereโs low volume resistance up to $63.57 (0.786), followed by $66.44 and a final extension target at $79.82 (1.272).
Fundamentals: SMCI is a leading server hardware manufacturer. Demand for their systems has soared with the explosion of AI infrastructure. The company maintains solid financials, with rising quarterly revenue and growing presence in the cloud sector. Institutional investors have been actively increasing their positions since late 2023 โ a sign of strong long-term conviction.
Tactical plan:
โ Entry: market $42โ43
โ Target 1: $55.91
โ Target 2: $63.57
When technicals scream textbook breakout and fundamentals bring AI momentum to the table โ it might just be one of the best late entries in the AI wave this summer.
NeoWave Structure: FlatโXโTriangle Combination - break outThis chart illustrates a possible NeoWave-style corrective combination: a FlatโXโTriangle structure, likely completed and followed by a breakout.
W Wave: A well-structured Flat correction (labeled AโBโC) with a clean internal 5-wave impulse in C. Balanced time and volume across subcomponents suggest structural completion.
X Wave: A simple, proportionally shallow X connector, in line with NeoWave time and price minimums.
Y Wave: A textbook contracting triangle (labeled aโbโcโdโe), with near-perfect Fibonacci relationships between legs:
โข Wave b retraces approximately 61.8% of wave a
โข Wave d retraces approximately 78.6% of wave c
โข Time symmetry is preserved
โข Volume compresses into the apex, a classic triangle behavior
Breakout Observed:
โข Price has moved above triangle resistance
โข Volume increased at breakout
โข MACD shows positive crossover and rising momentum
Interpretation:
This may mark the end of a prolonged corrective structure and the beginning of a new impulsive sequence. Triangle projection targets suggest the $77โ80 area as a minimum, with higher Fibonacci extensions possible (e.g., 1.618 or 2.618 of prior moves) if this evolves into a 3rd wave.
Technical Approach:
This analysis follows NeoWave principles (Glenn Neely), emphasizing structural clarity, wave proportion, time-price balance, and breakout behavior.
SMCI going to breakout soon, targeting $200NASDAQ:SMCI hasfound support at $28, it is currently trading around the $46 level. It is attempting to test the $50-$61 range for the third time and will likely turn this level into support with a breakout.
$200 could be a good psychological target. The relative strength against the SP:SPX is about to turn positive in favor of the stock, and I expect volume to increase in the coming days.
SMCI โ Reloading the AI BeastSMCI continues to show strength as a key player in the AI infrastructure space. In this update, I present a new strategy with staggered entry zones at $49, $45, and $38 โ designed to capture value during healthy pullbacks within a larger bullish trend.
Entry Plan:
1) $49
2) $45
3) $38
Target:
1) $56
2) $61
3) $66
๐ If price dips back to $45 or $38, I will reload heavier. No FOMO. Let the market come to us.
Drop a ๐ if you're still riding SMCI or waiting for the next entry.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
SMCI soon above 50 USD! Big bullish move! Youppi!๐ Bullish Trigger Zone: $50 USD
- ๐ The $50 level acts as a psychological and technical threshold. A breakout above this resistance could signal a bullish reversal.
- ๐ The current price is around $49.11, so itโs very close to the trigger. A daily close above $50 with strong volume would strengthen the buy signal.
- ๐งญ Technical indicators (based on TradingView): Moving averages and oscillators are neutral to slightly bullish.
๐ฏ Sell Zone: $60 to $73 USD
- ๐ข $60: First realistic target for cautious traders. Itโs an intermediate resistance zone.
- ๐ก $65: A middle-ground target for those looking to optimize without too much risk.
- ๐ด $73: Ambitious target, marked on your chart with a green arrow. Ideal for more patient investors or those confident in the trend.
๐ Fundamental Context
- ๐ฌ Analysts are mixed: some maintain targets around $50โ60, while others are more conservative.
- ๐ The stock has seen a sharp correction in recent months, but the current rebound could mark a reversal if confirmed by volume.
๐ง Suggested Strategy
| Price Level | Recommended Action | Emoji |
| < $50 | Watch / Wait for confirmation | ๐ |
| $50โ60 | Gradual buying / Swing trade | ๐ |
| $60โ65 | Partial profit-taking | ๐ฐ |
| $65โ73 | Full exit or trailing stop | ๐๐ |
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
Thank you!
Subcribe to TSXGanG! ๐ง ๐ฏ
SMCI - Bull Flag Breakout SetupSMCI formed a strong bullish impulse followed by a bull flag pattern.
A breakout above the flag structure may signal continuation if confirmed with strong price action.
Trade Plan:
โข Entry: On breakout or retest
โข Stop Loss: Below flag support
โข TP1: Recent high
โข TP2: Measured flagpole extension
This setup is worth monitoring for potential bullish continuation.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
SMCI buy cycle in progress into yr endStrong buy rates on order flow indicating buy-side targets as follows
tp1 = 88
tp2 = 96
tp3 = 105
...by end of 2025
Still expecting strong sell wave sometime by mid-2026 all the way back to 20's as the semiconductor space continues dealing with growing bearish forces. Recent weakness should be seen as "shots across the bow" or warning shots. Next set of highs will be opportunities to EXIT and go short imo.
SMCI bullish setup longSMCI seems well positioned for one of those "face melting' rips in the coming weeks as it normally does. All TA in daily, weekly and monthly timeframes tell thesame tale- Bullish move imminent.
Catalyst- riding on NVDA new Blackwell chip and Tariff news coming in next week, high short interest, VPA show market makers already took a position- all signs pointing north, which looks promising for JULY and early August.
SMCI Long Swing Setup โ Positioned for AI-Driven Infrastructure Super Micro Computer, Inc. NASDAQ:SMCI is a critical player in the AI infrastructure boom, supplying high-performance servers to NVIDIA, AMD, and major data centers. With accelerating demand for compute power, SMCI is well-positioned for continued upside.
๐ Trade Setup:
โข Entry Zone: Current market price or $40 โ $43 support zone
โข Take Profit Targets:
o ๐ฅ $70
o ๐ฅ $100
o ๐ฅ $120
โข Stop Loss: Weekly close below $30
Potential Doubling Move in SMCISometimes it pays well to look at a weekly charts as they give opportunities for a very large moves and potential for massive gains. In this example, SMCI is such a stock. The stock first broke out of resistance zone, white rectangle, and made a strong push into 100s. It then retraced the move back into the rectangle zone, but in this instance, the resistance turned into support. It is these zones that act as support/resistance are the powerful levels. Since the support held, it can easily move back into the $99 or so to re-test those highs again, a potential 100% upside.
HERE IS THE #CHART FOR $SMCI Bullish with consolidation risk. Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ) is at $143.81, up 0.09% daily and 25.14% monthly, as shown in the finance card above. X posts highlight strong momentum, with a breakout above the 200-day SMA ($129.74) and a potential Wave 5 targeting $154-$160, supported by analyst upgrades (Mizuho, Melius to Buy; targets $140-$175). AI chip demand (MI350 outperforming Nvidiaโs B200, Oracle/Zettascale deals) and 40% YoY revenue growth drive optimism. However, a high P/E (105.42) and choppy price action suggest a possible pullback to $141.63-$142. Support is at $141.63; resistance is at $147.75-$150. A break above $147.75 could target $154; a drop below $141.63 risks $138
SMCI Long Trade Setup!๐
๐ Timeframe: 30 min
๐ Pattern: Falling wedge breakout ๐ผ
๐ Entry: Around $47.50 โ
๐ฏ Target: $50.03 ๐ฐ
๐ Stop Loss: Below $46.40 ๐ซ
๐ Why This Trade?
๐ Breakout from falling wedge โ bullish sign
๐งฑ Strong trendline + horizontal support
๐ Volume surge = smart money interest
๐ฏ๏ธ Bullish candle = potential momentum play
SMCI on WatchLooking to buy a pullback to .50 fib or a breakout and retest above today's high, $46.92.
Why:
Relative strength compared to SPY.
Bullish MACD
All EMAS pointed upwards
Consolidating for weeks
The breakout is not ideal since the Risk/Reward is only 1.43. May not enter that if there is not strong volume.
SMCI โ Wedge Breakout Triggering Around 46 ZoneNASDAQ:SMCI โ Wedge Breakout Watch with Intraday Setup Potential
Super Micro Computer ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) is working on a wedge breakout, and it's pressing right into the key $46 zone โ the trigger area for a clean move higher.
๐น Wedge Structure Clearing
Price has been compressing into a wedge, and it's now testing the upper trendline.
The $46 level is the key breakout point โ if it clears and holds, this could unleash serious momentum.
๐น Intraday Setup Developing
If NASDAQ:SMCI can hold this level intraday and consolidate, Iโm watching for an entry signal right at or slightly above $46.
Volume confirmation will be key here โ watching the tape closely.
๐น My Trade Plan:
1๏ธโฃ Entry: Watching for clean hold + setup at $46 zone.
2๏ธโฃ Stop: Below yesterdayโs low โ keeps the trade tight and risk defined.
3๏ธโฃ Add: If it breaks $46 with volume, Iโll build into the position.
Why I Like This Setup:
Breakout from compression = potential expansion
Clear risk level, clean structure โ everything I want in a breakout trade
If it holds this level today, this could turn into a trend day.
SMCI: First 1D Golden Cross in years just formed.Super Micro Computer turned marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.363, MACD = 1.620, ADX = 16.124) but is essentially neutral, consolidating practically for the past month. They big news is that today it is forming the first 1D Golden Cross since June 1st 2020, the period after the COVID crash recovery. Trading inside a Channel Up and given the Inverse Head and Shoulders being formed, we expect the stock to target its 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 83.00).
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