MS51 trade ideas
SMCI hit its 1W MA50, eyes a massive break-out.Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) has surged more than +15% today after the company announced a multi-year, $20 billion partnership with Saudi data center firm DataVolt.
Technically that brought it on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the first contact with it since the week of February 18 2025, which was the previous Top. The current rally as well as the one that led to the Feb 18 Top, is fueled by the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) which held as Support on both occasions.
The driving pattern behind those Bullish Legs is a Channel Up (blue) and this is not the first time SMCI comes across such formation. It was in fact a similar Channel Up that took the stock from the 2022 bottom of the Inflation Crisis and guided it to its new Bull Cycle. That rose by +950% before it pulled back on its first consolidation.
As a result, we have a short-term Target at $80.00 and after a pull-back, long-term Target at $180.00 (+950% from the bottom).
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SMCI heating up, if price trend holds, gap up guaranteedMACD and RSI shows similarities to the exuberance we saw in February. MACD is still below levels that helped push the price to $60+... Can it go there? Opening moves remain critical, given limit sell triggers.
Short position is 21% and short ratio is 1.4. We may see an epic squeeze as many will scramble to cover.
SMCI has low P/E, so whichever way you are looking at it, good moment to buy for long, for those swing trading this, time to nibble and take profits!
Enjoy the ride
I'm shorting thisTwo weekly timeframe for a better understanding. Looks like a large bearish flag forming. Price just bounce off the bottom of the flag. But I think is a dead cat bounce. Is hitting a resistance level 35-36. Doesn't look too sting to break it up. SL triggers if a weekly candle breaks up the resistance and closes above it.
SMCI watch $38.38/87: Key resistance to Tariff Relief pumpSMCI bounced into a minor but significant resistance.
Looking for a Break-n-Retest for possible buy entries.
Retested first support and trying to hold it right now.
$ 36.38-36.87 is the exact zone to break for bulls.
$ 34.37-35.02 is the support that bulls must hold.
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SMCI watch $42.89-44.88: Double Golden fib zone a major LandmarkSMCI surged with news plus chip sector strength.
Seems to have obliterated a Double Golden zone.
Expect some orbits around this high gravity object.
$42.89 - 44.88 is the exact zone of concern.
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Previous Plot that caught the Bottom and Break Out
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SMCI Is it still a buy following the Q3 revenue and profit cut?Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) cut its third-quarter revenue and profit expectations due to delays in customer spending, amplifying worries of a pullback in AI-linked investments and pushing its shares down -16% pre-market.
It has been 6 months since we issued a major buy signal on SMCI (November 07 2024, see chart below):
Even tough our $122.50 long-term Target still stands, we have to move it later on the time-line until the economic outlook shows the positive signs of 2024 again.
Until then, we have a more medium-term Target of $80.00, which is on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, the same level the price hit in March 2019, following the first U.S. - China Trade War in 2018.
As you can see, the recovery patterns in terms of 1W RSI between the two fractals are almost identical.
Right now the stock is basically consolidating within the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), waiting for the next round of expansion news for the market, to break above the Triangle.
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SMCI ONCE IN A LIFETIME DIP BUY!!!Ive taken a $600 position on SMCI I will be looking to size into as it works. You can clearly see what happened last time we were at this price area. I have less than a $1 stop loss if price were to return below the green line. This will be a LONGGGGGGGGGGG hold into the future.
SMCI – 30-Min Long Trade Setup!📈 🟢
🔹 Asset: Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI – NASDAQ)
🔹 Timeframe: 30-Min Chart
🔹 Setup Type: Breakout Retest at Key Supply Zone
📊 Trade Plan – Long Bias
✅ Entry Zone: Around $36.67 (breakout + retest confirmation)
✅ Stop-Loss (SL): $34.25 (below structure & recent low)
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
📌 TP1: $39.51 – Prior resistance zone
📌 TP2: $43.36 – Major structure / supply zone
📐 Risk-Reward Calculation
🟥 Risk: $36.67 - $34.25 = $2.42/share
🟩 Reward to TP2: $43.36 - $36.67 = $6.69/share
📊 R/R Ratio: ~1 : 2.76 – Strong long setup
🔍 Technical Highlights
📌 Trendline breakout with retest at resistance ✔
📌 Holding above yellow resistance zone ✔
📌 Strong bullish momentum on breakout ✔
📌 Good volume + clean continuation structure 🔼
📉 Risk Management Plan
🔁 Move SL to breakeven after TP1
💰 Take partial profits at TP1
📈 Let runners target TP2
📏 Discipline over impulse – follow chart
⚠️ Setup Invalidation If:
❌ Breaks and closes below $34.25
❌ Reversal with strong bearish engulfing
❌ Fails to hold above yellow zone
🚨 Final Thoughts
✔ Clean technical breakout with volume and structure
✔ Defined stop, solid R/R = smart trade setup
✔ Great candidate for swing traders looking for momentum
🔗 #SMCI #StockBreakout #ProfittoPath #ChartSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishTrade #NASDAQStocks #SmartTrading #RiskReward #MomentumPlay
SMCI: Enormous buy opportunity for a $70 Target.Super Micro Computer went from oversold to almost neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.789, MACD = -2.030, ADX = 39.343) as it is having an enormour turnaround on the 1W MA200 and the bottom of the Channel Up today. This is so far the biggest 1D green candle since January 19th 2024. The 1D RSI is on the same rebound as the February 3rd bottom was, so at least a +158.65% bullish wave is to be expected. Go long, TP = 70.00.
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SMCI Trade Recap📈Getting ready to start a new swing trade on SMCI, and I’ve mapped out my game plan with a tiered entry strategy and clear profit targets.
Here’s how I’m setting it up:
Entry Levels (Scaling In):
$40.50 – First buy if it pulls back to this area. Looks like solid support, and I’ll test the waters here.
$35.80 – Adding more if it dips further. This level has acted as a strong bounce zone in the past.
$30.60 – Final entry if it gets down here. Oversold territory + psychological level = great risk/reward.
Profit Targets (Scaling Out):
$47.00 – First target to take some profits off the table.
$51.60 – Second target — likely to see some resistance here.
$60+ – Stretch target. If the momentum is strong, I’ll hold a portion with a trailing stop and let it ride.
Game Plan: I’m staying patient with entries, letting price come to me. The idea is to build the position gradually and reduce risk by scaling in. I’ll also be keeping an eye on volume and broader market sentiment — if the setup changes, I’ll adapt.
Let’s see how it plays out — risk-managed, calm mindset, and ready to pivot if needed. 🚀
Opening (IRA): SMCI April 17th 34 Covered Call... for a 32.13 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV. Selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 2 x expected move 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 32.13/share
Max Profit: 1.87
ROC at Max: 5.82%
50% Max: .94
ROC at 50% Max: 2.91%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call if take profit is not hit.
How far will it eventually fall SMCI?During such a general crisis, things are very complicated for all stocks and everything depends. The fundamentals are key here and any decision by Trump can change things in a second and that is why we say how far, not how far will it fall. Given the possible further decline of the SP500 to around $5360-5400 and based on the 4-hour chart, it is clearly seen that the dynamic support line from the accumulated volume lies at around $29.5 and $30.5. The reversal signals are clear (the green triangles below). Therefore, it is very unlikely that we will see a drop below $30 . This is a very good entry point, but I do not advise anyone to trade until April 2, although I think things will become clear later today or tomorrow.