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MS51 trade ideas

SMCI SUNDAY.. TOMORROW'S LABOR DAY.... LOOKING FOR THE PRICE ACTION ON TUESDAY. looking for a reversal pattern to go long. there is tremendous volatility on this Market and no real structure which means you can make a significant return in a small amount of time if you're on the right side of the market and you do it at the right time.... in this case looking for buyers before everyone else figures this out. if you take a look at this Market objectively, this was a great Market to go long on one swing, and then go short in the other swing.... and probably will be a great trade on the swing going higher as soon as you see evidence of buyers. markets that have great swings for both buyers and sellers are markets that make buyers and sellers substantial profits.... the quality of expanded markets.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by ScottBogatin
3
SMCI This is honestly the last stand.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) suffered yet another brutal sell-off following the announcement of a delay in filing its 10-K annual report. This may prove to be a catastrophic one as technically not only did it fail exactly on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but also saw the stock test the bottom of its multi-year parabolic support, the Higher Lows Zone since the week of July 05 2022. This was basically the last time the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) got tested with the current week coming the closest since then. The 1W MA100 last broke during the unexpected COVID flash crash in March 2020, so technically it is the stock's longest Support. If it fails to hold and SMCI closes a 1W candle below it, the long-term parabolic growth pattern is invalidated and we will risk testing the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at a price potentially around $250.00. If on the other hand the 1W MA100 holds (and we will need the news sentiment to drastically reverse in order to achieve that, something that currently can't be seen on the horizon), then we can see another +400% long-term rally, in which case we estimate a Target around $2000, the stock's next critical psychological growth level. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:SMCI
by TradingShot
2
Mean Reversion Trade - Ticker: $SMCISetup: Mean Reversion Trade Key Criteria: 1. The price has tested a prior breakout or breakdown level, a 15+ day pivot in price, a monthly or weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG), or a weekly/monthly gap. 2. Market Cap is above $10 billion. 3. The price swept highs, closed lower, and there is a gap between the open and the previous or second-to-last candle close. Specific to SMCI: * SMCI has a market cap of $25.9 billion. * The stock closed with a relative volume of 4.90. * SMCI is holding a major level at $400. I rate this level a 9/10 due to its psychological significance and the fact that it aligns with a weekly Fair Value Gap. * The stock is down more than 50% in the past quarter. Trade Details: * Position: Long * Entry: $445.90 * Stop Loss: $395.16 * Risk: 0.75% of account equity * Order Type: Buy Stop Order Targets: * Target 1: $536 (1.3R) — based on resistance at a weekly Fair Value Gap. * Target 2: $587 (2.79R) — also based on resistance at a weekly Fair Value Gap. Exit Techniques: * Scale out 33% of the original position size at the first target ($536). * Scale out another 33% of the original position size at the second target ($587). * Exit the remaining 34% of the original position size using the new 3-day low after the new high method, or by focusing on a Reason2Sell approach. This involves analyzing the daily and 65-minute charts each day before the market opens to determine if the stock is showing signs of strength or weakness. Reasoning: SMCI experienced a sharp drop of over 25% in one day, bringing it back near the breakout level of $350, from which it had previously surged to $1,229. The stock is currently trading around $440 and has held the $400 level well, indicating strong support at this key weekly Fair Value Gap. The trade aims to capitalize on the potential upside following this period of extreme capitulation, supported by daily consolidation, strong volume, and an intraday V-bounce pattern. The stock traded with a large spread yesterday, and the initial stop loss from the entry point is 11.38%. This is significant, and I plan to add multiple positions if the stock tests below $420/$410 again. The goal of this trade is to catch the end of the capitulation period. With NVDA earnings now out of the way, semiconductor stocks may either continue to sell off or attract investors who perceive them as undervalued. The strategy is primarily based on weekly support levels, particularly $400 and $410, as well as the fact that the stock has declined significantly. Stop Loss Strategy: * The stop loss will be adjusted after the first profit target is reached and shares are scaled out. Additional Notes: * Set orders to automatically scale out shares. If the take profit (TP) is hit and you are still holding the full position size, manage your risk accordingly. * If you have any questions, please feel free to ask. I am here to support and help you understand how to become a consistent trader. Position Size: * To be determined.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by thinkCNE
5
SMCI Stock Plunges Amid Delayed 10-K Filing and AllegationsSuper Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) faced a turbulent week, with its stock plunging 25.8% after the company announced a delay in filing its annual report on Form 10-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This announcement came just a day after Hindenburg Research, a prominent short-seller, accused the company of accounting irregularities and other potential compliance failures, sparking investor concern and a sharp market reaction. Super Micro Computer Delays 10-K Filing Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), a key player in the data center industry, stated that it needs additional time to complete its assessment of internal controls over financial reporting for the fiscal year ending June 30. The company plans to file a Notification of Late Filing on Form 12b-25 but did not provide a clear timeline for the completion of its 10-K filing. The delay has raised alarm among investors, as timely financial reporting is crucial for maintaining market confidence and transparency. The delay also coincides with a critical report from Hindenburg Research, which accused Super Micro of "glaring accounting red flags, evidence of undisclosed related party transactions, sanctions and export control failures, and customer issues." Although the report lacks concrete details, it has contributed to heightened uncertainty and volatility in SMCI's stock. Market Reaction and Analyst Responses The market responded swiftly to the news, with NASDAQ:SMCI stock dropping by 25.8% to $406.33 in afternoon trading, its most significant decline since 2020. This sharp drop follows a period of strong performance for the stock, driven by investor enthusiasm for the company's role in supporting AI-driven data center infrastructure. Analyst opinions are divided. CFRA Research analyst Shreya Gheewala downgraded her rating on SMCI stock from "buy" to "hold" following the Hindenburg report, citing concerns over potential reputational damage and delayed financial reporting. Gheewala also lowered her price target from $729 to $454, reflecting the increased risk associated with the company. Conversely, JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee maintained an "overweight" or "buy" rating on the stock, with a price target of $950. Chatterjee emphasized that while Super Micro may have areas for improvement in governance, transparency, and investor communication, these deficiencies do not necessarily indicate wrongdoing. He believes the company's recent growth and market positioning remain strong, particularly given the demand for AI server infrastructure. Potential Benefits for Competitors The negative sentiment around Super Micro (NASDAQ: SMCI) could present an opportunity for its competitors. According to Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani, Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) is well-positioned to capitalize on any market share losses suffered by Super Micro in the AI server segment. Dell, a major player in the industry, could benefit as customers and investors seek alternatives amid Super Micro's current challenges. Impact on Leadership and Wealth The turmoil has also significantly impacted the wealth of Super Micro's CEO, Charles Liang. Liang, who co-founded the company with his wife Sara Liu in 1993, saw his net worth collapse by 66% from a high of $9 billion in March to $3.1 billion. Despite this dramatic decrease, Liang’s fortune remains up by about $1 billion for the year, reflecting the volatile nature of tech stocks and investor sentiment. Looking Forward: Uncertainty and Opportunity While the delayed 10-K filing and the allegations from Hindenburg Research have caused immediate setbacks for Super Micro Computer, the company’s long-term prospects remain uncertain. The market reaction underscores the importance of transparency and effective communication with investors. Super Micro must now focus on restoring confidence by addressing these concerns and providing clarity regarding its financial reporting and internal controls. Meanwhile, rivals like Dell stand to benefit from any fallout, potentially gaining market share as Super Micro navigates this challenging period. As the situation unfolds, all eyes will be on how Super Micro handles these issues and whether it can regain its footing in a highly competitive market.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by DEXWireNews
2
SMCI to $300? NASDAQ:SMCI delays their 10-K filing for FY2024. The company said that additional time is needed 'to complete the assessment of its internal controls over financial reporting.' Delaying the filing, especially right after Hindenburg’s accusations, raises serious red flags. A $300 target seems like a genuine downside. Disclaimer : This post should NOT be construed as investment advice and is meant for learning purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investments.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by johntradingwick
2
$SMCI NASDAQ:SMCI 📈 Super Micro Computer NASDAQ:SMCI has taken a significant hit, dropping more than 8% following serious allegations from hindenburg research, a financial research firm specializing in investigating and exposing potential financial fraud, according to their three month investigation, there are major red flags in NASDAQ:SMCI accounting practices, the firm has now taken a short position against the stock, which is down over 50% from its peak and has fallen more than 15% just since August 16, going from a high of $1,230 to its current price of $547. 📄 Hindenburg’s report uncovered signs of accounting manipulation, undisclosed transactions, and even issues with sanctions and export controls, additionally it is claimed that executives who left the company due to previous scandals have been rehired. 📊 This year, the stock was soaring, rising from around $290 in January to over $1,200 in March, thanks to its role in the AI boom and partnerships with companies like NASDAQ:NVDA but now, even with a recent 10 for 1 stock split, the price continues to struggle and has dropped significantly. 👁️ So, if you’re keeping an eye on NASDAQ:SMCI , it’s now a matter of waiting for a clear sign that things are stabilizing before investing, hindenburg’s bearish stance and ongoing issues with the company could mean more volatility ahead, it’s a critical time for NASDAQ:SMCI and patience might be key for those looking to play the long game. 📚 I made a post about the pump and dump pattern and I did it on NASDAQ:SMCI here’s the analysis again so you can see how stage 7 is developing. Do you think it will follow the pattern?
NASDAQ:SMCI
by Mariofxtr
SMCI Short-term buy opportunity within its corrective Channel. Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the March 08 2024 High. Even though the trend on a multi-year basis is bullish, short-term investors should have this pattern in mind. Even on the shorter term though, the stock has managed to price a new Lower Low (August 08) at the bottom of the Channel Down and started its new Bullish Leg. Today's low opening has served as the first technical Higher Low on the Bullish Leg, potentially similar to the May 01 2024 Higher Low of that Channel Up. The 1D MACD has already completed a Bullish Cross, as on May 06 and naturally the next Target is a Higher High above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. We are aiming for $750.00 short-term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by TradingShot
8
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Awaiting the Final Leg DownWe are considering a bullish scenario for SMCI, but it's not time to act just yet. We continue to believe that we are still in Wave (2) and that one more leg down is needed before we can see a surge higher, potentially breaching the all-time high at $1,229. Although the stock has already retraced more than 60% since reaching this ATH, we think there's still room for a bit more downside. We believe we are in Wave C of the ABC corrective movement, and typically, this Wave C contains a five-wave structure (in this case, moving downward). This five-wave structure hasn't fully played out yet, as you can clearly see. Even though a lot of longs have been opened at $512, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, we believe this is just Wave ((iii)). We're not looking to short this stock but are instead waiting to see if our analysis holds true so we can go long once we have more clarity on the ending of Wave ((iv)). This will help us better determine the end of the overarching Wave (2).
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by freeguy_by_wmc
SMCI rebounding on its 2-year Support Zone. $2000 next stop.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is on its strongest 1W green candle since May 22 2023, recovering the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was broken last week amidst the general market panic on a potential economic slowdown. This rebound happens to take place just inside the 2-year Higher Lows Zone that started back in July 2022. The ultimate Support, the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) is exactly on that Zone's bottom and as long as it holds, we will stay bullish on SMCI long-term. Even the 1W RSI marginally broke below its 2-year Support Zone, but immediately recovered it. As a result, we expect the new Bullish Leg (green Channel Up) to start. Every single one of the previous Legs of this 2-year pattern has been higher than the previous, so since the last rally completed a +344.40% rise, we expect at least a repeat of this. Our long-term Target is $2000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by TradingShot