Long Straddle Options Idea: Strike $39 or $39.50 or $40, Exp 2/2Long Straddle Options Idea: Strike $39 or $39.50 or $40, Exp 2/2
Disclaimer
MS51 trade ideas
2/10/25 - $smci - lol2/10/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SMCI
lol
- you all know what happens when reputation goes to a diddy party and takes an azz chapz photo with "lady" "gaga".
- nobody is going to scale with these guys, guys
- it's hard enough to buy dell, hp... even the *covers left eye* oracle is an overvalued POS that tells a nice story
- bitcoin, nxt, uber, tsm... nvda... come on guys. it's hard enough to own legit stuff in this overbaked cake. don't make your life harder than it already is. welp. i'm sure i'll have the only honest but "bearish" post that tells the truth.
- truth sucks. but it's the scarcest asset. aren't we all in the business of consuming scarce assets? anyway... have a wonderful week my friends. bit of a digression post than usual.
V
SMCI Bull Flag completed and targeting $65.Three months ago (November 07 2024, see chart below), we issued a strong buy signal on Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI), after the stock had declined by more than -85% from its All Time High (ATH):
The signal was an instant success, as the price rebounded on the following week. Our perspective hasn't changed and today, with the stock up currently by more +13% intra day, is another reason why.
Last week the price made an excellent rebound on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), solidifying this level as the new Support and turning out to be a huge demand level that completed the Bull Flag pattern of December 09 2024 - January 27 2025. As you can see , the 1W MA200 was also on the symmetrical Support Zone that only broke on the 'fake-out' of November's accounting scandal peak.
The interesting take on this 1W chart is that every similar Bull Flag since the 2020 COVID crash, tested the 1.5 Fibonacci extension before the next technical pull-back. As a result, we expect a $65.00 test, which would exceed the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), before a new 2-month correction.
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SMCI: Bottom is being confirmedSMCI: Bottom is being confirmed
-Accumation on Inversed Head n Shoulder pattern.
-Less supply volume at the bottom.
-Key level and demand zone support.
.
Let's wait n see!
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc.Super Micro Computer, Inc. engages in the distribution and manufacture of information technology solutions and other computer products. Its products include twin solutions, MP servers, GPU and coprocessor, MicroCloud, AMD solutions, power supplies, SuperServer, storage, motherboards, chassis, super workstations, accessories, SuperRack and server management products. The company was founded by Charles Liang, Yih-Shyan Liaw, Sara Liu, and Chiu-Chu Liu Liang in September 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, CA.
Bullish Bat?If we are seeing a bullish bat here than SMCI's ability to return to its original price of around $100 depends on several key factors:
1. Market Sentiment & AI Growth
Supermicro has become a critical supplier for AI-driven data centers, leveraging NVIDIA's GPUs.
If AI and high-performance computing demand continues to grow, SMCI's revenue and stock price could remain strong.
2. Addressing Accounting Concerns
Past SEC settlements and ongoing Hindenburg Research allegations could create volatility.
If Supermicro proves its financial integrity and remains compliant with regulations, investor confidence could return.
3. Competition & Supply Chain Risks
The company faces competition from Dell, HPE, and Lenovo, which could impact market share.
Geopolitical risks with China (since Supermicro's manufacturing is partially based there) could also play a role.
4. Valuation & Market Cycles
Supermicro traded at $100 before its massive AI-driven rally in 2023-2024.
If AI spending slows, or the market perceives SMCI as overvalued, it could experience a correction.
Technical & Historical Perspective
SMCI was under $100 before 2023, but its AI-driven business significantly expanded.
A return to $100 would imply a massive decline of over 85%, which would require a major financial or industry-wide collapse.
Realistic Possibility?
Unlikely in the near term unless there is a major accounting scandal, a sharp downturn in AI-related spending, or a market-wide tech crash.
More realistic downside? If AI demand slows, SMCI could correct to around $300–$400 rather than $100.
If you’re considering shorting or trading it, timing will be critical.
SMCI: UptrendOn SMCI we are in a situation of bullish trend with the break of the vwap and the resistance line. The objective is to reach 46.94 dollars.
A Bet on Green Chip and Data Center InfrastructureSupporting Arguments
Fundamental Undervaluation Due to Past Issues: SMCI experienced a significant sell-off following unproven allegations of financial reporting fraud. Currently, the company trades at a discount compared to peers that only partially focus on data center infrastructure solutions.
Financial Results Release for FY 2024: The market is pricing in a potential NASDAQ delisting due to delays in financial reporting. The current deadline for the company is February 25, which is likely to be a decisive moment for this investment thesis.
Investment Thesis
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI), founded in Silicon Valley, has been a niche supplier of server solutions for data centers for over 15 years. The company has significantly disrupted the server and storage systems market, achieving growth rates surpassing its competitors. SMCI offers a comprehensive 360° solution, covering hardware, support, software, and security. An independent audit found no evidence of fraud or misconduct by the company’s management, yet the stock trades at highly attractive valuation multiples while maintaining strong growth potential.
Fundamental Undervaluation Due to Past Issues. Currently, SMCI trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10, while its closest competitors (Dell, Lenovo, HP), which offer only partial infrastructure solutions, trade at an average multiple of 11.6. The emergence of more efficient AI infrastructure solutions in China (such as DeepSeek) is putting pressure on the industry. However, Jevons' paradox suggests that increased efficiency may drive demand for AI development among companies that previously avoided entering the market due to high barriers to entry. Even if demand for data center infrastructure weakens, it remains positive due to the exponential growth of global data consumption.
FY 2024 Financial Results Release. The company must publish its financial reports by February 25. Currently, the market fears a potential delisting, but we believe this risk is low. It is important to note that SMCI recently underwent changes in its finance department, which naturally affected the reporting timeline. It is likely that the company’s management has reviewed and adjusted its financial disclosure processes. Given that SEC reviews have been positive and there have been no major delays in the past, it is difficult to imagine that the company will fail to report on time. The next month will be crucial for the stock, and we see a high probability of a valuation reassessment by investors.
Our target price for SMCI stock is $40, with a "Buy" recommendation. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $22.5.
$SMCI very bullish if good earningsSo these clowns are finally going to talk about their business next week. Hopefully they fixed all their accounting issues. They said there will be no change to past reports. As far as running a company, I believe they are doing some shady things but with a PE under 15 and the company supposedly is doing twice the numbers they were last time we were at these levels plus the Blackwell is finally out and they can forecast huge growth there is a lot to be bullish about. 17% of the float is short. It still could be high risk but just like how people are still bullish GME years after it's run I think there are a lot of people watching this one as well. The short squeeze and gamma squeeze has huge potential. There was a record number of institutional investors piling into this name as well. If I'm wrong I'm screwed because I have lots of shares and June calls all in the money at the moment. I don't see breaking all time highs any time soon but doubling money on June calls can happen fast. If earnings are good and the outlook is good, I'm happy to double down. Just my opinion not investment advice, it's still high risk! Earnings has about a 13% expected move.
SMCI: Inverse Head and Shoulders close to bullish breakout.Super Micro Computer Inc turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook today (RSI = 51.775, MACD = -1.260, ADX = 17.645) as it crossed over the 4H MA50. The 4H MA200 remains the long lasting resistance ever since the July selling commenced but the recent 2 month Channel Down looks like the right shoulder of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. If it is that indeed, we should see a break above the 4H MA200 as soon as next week even. If successful, we will go long as the buying sentiment would have returned to SMCI on the long term. Aim for the usual target of such Inverse Head and Shoulders, the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 130.00).
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Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: $SMCI) Faces Critical SupportMarket Movement:
Super Micro Computer, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SMCI ) is experiencing a notable dip, down 2.27% in Monday’s premarket trading. Investors are closely watching the stock as it approaches a critical structural support level within its long-standing symmetrical triangle pattern, a formation that has persisted since March 2024.
Technical Analysis
The symmetrical triangle pattern, marked by converging trendlines, signifies a prolonged phase of consolidation. A significant technical structure has formed, with the baseline aligned with the December 2023 pivot. If NASDAQ:SMCI breaches this support level, the downside potential is substantial, possibly leading to a retracement toward the $17 support level. However, should the stock witness a breakout above the Break of Structure (BOS), it could catalyze a strong rally, aiming for the highs seen in March 2024.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) currently sits at 40, indicating that the stock is teetering on the edge of bearish sentiment but not yet in oversold territory. The RSI’s ability to maintain this level could determine whether a bounce from support materializes or if further downside pressure ensues. The next few sessions will be pivotal in shaping NASDAQ:SMCI ’s short-term price trajectory.
Recent Earnings Overview
Despite the recent price dip, NASDAQ:SMCI has demonstrated impressive financial performance. The company reported a staggering 109.77% YoY revenue growth, reaching $14.94 billion in 2024, compared to $7.12 billion in the previous year. Earnings also surged by 88.77%, totaling $1.21 billion. These figures reflect strong operational efficiency and growing demand for its high-performance server and storage solutions.
Analyst Forecast & Price Target:
According to 16 analysts, NASDAQ:SMCI holds an average rating of “Hold.” The 12-month price forecast suggests a target of $57.74, implying a potential upside of 102.45% from its latest price. While analysts remain cautiously optimistic, the stock’s future hinges on whether it respects its current support levels or experiences a significant breakdown.
Conclusion:
NASDAQ:SMCI is at a technical crossroads, where a break below the symmetrical triangle’s baseline could signal further downside pressure, while a successful breakout above resistance could reignite bullish momentum. With strong fundamental backing and an impressive growth trajectory, the coming days will be crucial in determining whether the stock can reclaim its bullish potential or succumb to market pressures.
Traders and investors alike should keep a close eye on the Break of Structure (BOS), as it will likely dictate NASDAQ:SMCI ’s next major move in the market.
SMCI - high potential comes with high riskThere are many complex charts of SMCI on here, I like to keep it simple.
This stock has the potential for gains of 100 - 200 %, but only if there are good news in the next few weeks. As long as there is uncertainty about their accounting and Nasdaq listing, this is a gamble and it could go to 0.
Also considering that the indices are at an ATH and struggeling, I am just observing for now.
From a TA perspective price is still in a falling channel, has gone up in 5 waves and corrected. Therefore a wave 1 and 2 could be in place and next could be a wave 3 to 80$+.
Price is also trading within the lower Fib extensions.
Patience is key here. Better miss some gains than loose it all.
SMCI - the gamble stock you should NOT touch!Since SMCI had issues with the liability of their financial statements the stock lost a lot but is now holding in a critical price range. Large investors are still not ready to buy the stock because the management is not convincing falsifying the accusations of financial fraud. Thats why this stock is extreme dangerous because there is no much backup which can help the stock gaining at this moment and any news could lead to another -10% for a day.
There is no indicator making this to a serious taken stock and not a casino stock.
The risk of this stock being dumped is very high.
SMCI - Auditors Issue but still heading TP=$57 trendlineDespite of challenges, I believe SMCI is heading north towards 50+. Trade wisely, I don't use SLs as you can see my positions with $ annotations.
Gentlemen and Ladies, SMCI is on schedule - It was an impossibility that SMCI the absolute core of AI be left behind, especially when without it - everything overheats and with it, all woks flawlessly.
You have to bet on excellence. Irrelevant if swindlers are infesting every market there is.
From Jannet the CEO Obamanoind at Ernst Young to the low reference Hindenburg Report lead by an ambulance driver that studied English and it is not clear if the swindler graduated.
Never bet against excellence and technical expertise.
SMCI was a victim of bear raiders, now I hope these rodents be all sued and we get some money back for the financial damage. The technology and expertise is now even better, it takes these events to make companies even more resilient, and SMCI has proven its worth.
Bullish Breakout and Compliance AheadSuper Micro Computer (SMCI) is showing strong bullish momentum, with the $30 support level holding firm since November. A recent breakout from the downward trendline and a rising channel on the chart signal steady upward movement, with potential targets at $36, $42, and $46.
On the fundamental side, SMCI’s upcoming AI server releases are expected to drive significant revenue growth, keeping it competitive in the high-performance computing sector. However, recent challenges include delays in filing its FY2024 Annual Report and the resignation of Ernst & Young over governance and financial reporting concerns.
The company has formed a special committee to address these issues and plans to submit a compliance plan to Nasdaq to maintain its listing. While technicals are bullish, investors should monitor how SMCI resolves these concerns before making decisions.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Down 74% from All-Time High Overview:
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has dropped 74% from its all-time high, with a maximum drawdown of approximately 86%. This sharp decline raises the question: Is the worst over, or could further downside be ahead?
Fundamental Context:
Despite the drawdown, SMCI remains a leader in the AI server market. Long-term demand for AI-related infrastructure may support future growth.
Market Sentiment:
Investor sentiment around AI and related tech stocks has shifted, contributing to SMCI's recent decline. Broader sector weakness and concerns over growth sustainability may be playing a role.
External Factors:
Broader market conditions, including interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainties, and evolving demand for AI infrastructure, are critical variables influencing the stock.
I F$CKED UP on SMCIWouldn't be fair for me to just post my winnings without showing my losses as well. Here you go, I thought SMCI would go up given some of the internal issues they had and turnaround efforts, but the downward channels seems too strong. Gentle reminder to take positions with the larger trend to avoid getting sucked in and pulled down. I already made winnings on other trades, but learning on past winnings / losers is a big part of trading!
What a cathardic experience! I feel a little cleaner now.....
Best of luck and safe trading! No risk, no reward....
SMCI - Super Micro Computer, Inc.Super Micro Computer, Inc. engages in the distribution and manufacture of information technology solutions and other computer products. Its products include twin solutions, MP servers, GPU and coprocessor, MicroCloud, AMD solutions, power supplies, SuperServer, storage, motherboards, chassis, super workstations, accessories, SuperRack and server management products. The company was founded by Charles Liang, Yih-Shyan Liaw, Sara Liu, and Chiu-Chu Liu Liang in September 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, CA.
Double bottom?Double Bottom appears to be forming on a bullish FVG with a possible bullish cross over on (Chris Moody) MACD; these confluences allude to a *possible* price reversal. Please wait for confirmations and confluences. Please see chart for key levels. Have a great day.
$SMCI LongI am loving the trendline break on $SMCI. I am in with around 1.5% of my account and already added to the position once. When I trade companies with actual products and high volume, I don't mind going in with 5-7% of my account considering they will never go bankrupt. I also like holding them for a while since the momentum is easily sustained once it gets going.
