Microsoft Hit Overbought zoneNASDAQ:MSFT is hitting the potential overbought zone. Closing off a long trade last week with 1% profit.
MSF trade ideas
End of Day Commentary $NASDAQ $NVDA $TSLAEnd of the day commentary for the most of the trading instruments
$MSFT to go above $450 for blow off top?NASDAQ:MSFT had a strong bounce from $397 and looks set to continue a move higher.
I think we could see a very strong move over the next few weeks which sends MSFT up and over the $450 range to new highs.
If we get up there, I think this will end up being the final move for MSFT before heading much lower. Yes, I was too early on my original top call , however, still think the same outcome will prevail after hitting this range. Will update the bearish view if this top gets hit.
I bought 3/8 $450C prior to NVDA earnings, let's see if this range gets hit before then.
Microsoft Bullish Cup and Handle Microsoft - NASDAQ:MSFT
A bullish monthly and weekly chart:
✅Monthly MACD Cross
✅ Long Term parallel channel intact
✅ Above 200 day & week MA
✅ Cup and Handle (with a high handle - Preferred)
✅ Good Risk: Reward Ratio at 7.6 (51%+ vs -7% loss)
⚠️ Stop loss levels on chart 🫡
A great set up. Those that are patient could wait for a potential pull back (arrow on chart) as we are reaching into overbought levels on the RSI on the weekly. It would not be unusual for Microsoft to pull back 5-8%. The R:R would be significantly improved if you waited and if it led to an entry from approx. $350 (after a 5-8% pull back), this would line up with the 200 DSMA also. However there are no guarantees of a pull back.
Those half as cautious could enter half a position here and see what happens and place another entry at $350.
All in all the $330 - 335 red box area on the chart is an absolute stop loss level. If this level is lost I would be out of the trade fast.
So you have options with this set up:
1) Entry here with a tight 7% stop.
2) Half a position here and half at approx. $350 with a stop at $335.
3) You wait for $350 and you place your stop at $330.
These all result in a similar loss of 5 - 7% in the event the trade fails. The upside potential is always 50%+. You can always cut early also at target one and take something at the 26% profit level.
It important you take full responsibility for your trade, position accordingly and be ok with the small 5-7% loss as it will likely happen, we are only leaning on the probability that maybe 60-70% of the time these trade set up provide us the return we want.
I have not really ventured into the earnings or dividends however they are both positive contributors to this trade as earnings have been excellent and dividends whilst minimal, are dividends at the end of the day. We are here for the trade and play a set up off the chart. The fundamental's are just nice framing for the stock in our minds eye.
PUKA
MSFT - Strong chance of a rejection and move downI will be looking out today for a rejection from our strong orange selling channel to add to our right shoulder liquidity (within the larger daily H&S) - this will then trigger all the left shoulder liquidity and allow for a move down to minimum $401 in the coming days and I see even $392 (green channel support) in the coming weeks.
Let me know what you think - of course, if yellow continuation is able to break us out of orange and teal selling today then we have a chance at a retest and break of blue buy-side tapering. However it looks like the bears have been preparing for this larger drop (and the bulls on the other side could use more liquidity for the break of this strong channel).
Microsoft - A possible top ?Possible top in Microsoft. Elliott seems to agree. Now waiting for Wyckoff to do it's magic.
- Possible Head and Shoulder (not the shampoo) forming ?
- Work of pure fiction and magic.
No financial advice given.
Microsoft's Deal With Mistral AI Faces Regulatory ScrutinyMicrosoft's ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) recent collaboration with French startup Mistral AI has sparked outrage among European lawmakers, prompting calls for a thorough investigation into what is perceived as a consolidation of power by the Redmond-based company.
The European Union, already scrutinizing Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI, raised additional alarms as news broke of the tech giant's 15-million euro investment in Paris-based Mistral AI. The investment, earmarked for integrating Mistral's AI models into Microsoft's Azure cloud computing platform, has set off a wave of apprehension regarding potential antitrust violations and monopolistic practices.
Despite assurances from Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) that its investment does not confer ownership in Mistral, but rather equity in future funding rounds, skepticism persists among policymakers in Brussels. The deal has fueled concerns that Microsoft's growing influence in the European AI landscape could stifle competition and innovation, particularly among smaller startups.
The timing of the announcement, coinciding with ongoing discussions surrounding the EU's comprehensive AI Act, has further exacerbated tensions. Mistral's purported lobbying efforts for exemptions under the AI Act have drawn scrutiny, with some lawmakers questioning the authenticity of claims regarding the protection of European startups.
European Parliament members, including Brando Benefei and Kim van Sparrentak, have raised doubts about Mistral's motivations and its alignment with American-influenced tech lobbying efforts. Allegations of a concerted effort to circumvent regulations under the guise of supporting "European champions" have cast a shadow over the integrity of negotiations surrounding the AI Act.
Alexandra Geese echoed concerns over the concentration of power and resources, urging for a thorough investigation into Mistral's conduct and potential collusion with the French government. The call for scrutiny underscores broader apprehensions regarding the unprecedented convergence of money and influence in the tech industry.
As calls for investigation mount, Max von Thun of the Open Markets Institute emphasizes the urgency of assessing the partnership's implications. The perceived discrepancy between Mistral's advocacy as a "European champion" and its alignment with Microsoft's interests underscores the need for regulatory vigilance in safeguarding fair competition and innovation.
In response to inquiries, both Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) and Mistral AI have declined to comment, while the French government remains silent on the matter. With stakeholders clamoring for transparency and accountability, the EU faces mounting pressure to address concerns over tech giant influence and ensure a level playing field for all players in the rapidly evolving digital landscape.
Microsoft (MSFT) Short Term Support AreaCycle from 12.4.2023 low ended with wave (1) at 421.33 as the 30 minutes chart below shows. The stock then is pulling back in wave (2) with internal subdivision as a double three. Down from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 408.84 and wave ((b)) ended at 416.1. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 403.39 which completed wave W in higher degree. Up from there, wave ((a)) ended at 410.07 and wave ((b)) ended at 404.57. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 412 which completed wave X. The stock then resumed lower in wave Y.
Down from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 403.53 and wave ((b)) ended at 407.45. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 397.23 which completed wave Y of (2). The stock has turned higher in wave (3), but it still needs to break above wave (1) at 421.33 to rule out a double correction. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 400.71 and wave ((ii)) ended at 397.56. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 412.83 and wave ((iv)) ended at 408.64. Wave ((v)) ended at 415.86 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 408.97 and wave ((b)) ended at 412.16. Expect wave ((c)) lower to reach 400.9 – 405.2 before it completes wave 2 and turns higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 397.23 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
Developing Top in MSFTClear pivot zone at 412, it's found sellers multiple times, and the attempted pierces above it have been aggressively sold off
The stock held above it for about a day, then a nasty gap lower to retest VWAP
The longer the stock stays under this, the more volume that's built out and the higher the odds we see a strong rollover
put calendars weapon of choice
$MSFT Short idea NASDAQ:MSFT is showing bearish divergence on the RSI on the daily timeframe. We also see that price action has started to consolidate and the shorter term moving averages starting to curl. The $400 whole number would be a good entry to take MSFT short.
Short under $400 on MSFT.
MSFT - Head & Shoulders PatternMSFT - there's a well defined HS pattern here with a gap from NVDA ER. Gaps usually fill because lack of volume at the price range, but this isn't the case with MSFT. Above the shoulder line @145.50 will nullify the HS pattern and below the 400 will confirm the pattern. With the way the market has been moving I wouldn't be surprised if the pattern becomes voided. (edited)
Microsoft Replicating 1987 SPX ChartSince Microsoft bought ChatGPT back in March 2023, the price of NASDAQ:MSFT stock has gone on to replicate the same pattern as the 1987 S&P500 stock market rally.
Does it mean anything all by itself? No. It still needs a catalyst for the drop to happen. The 1987 stock market crash had many triggers and catalysts and the drop was a sharp 40% from August 28th, 1987 to October 19th 1987.
What would cause a sharp 40% drop in NASDAQ:MSFT ? You all could type in your guess in a reply to this chart. It could come about under a variety of situations, but it would take an act of Government regulation or a major sea-change in laws or the business environment.
When you see people posting "overlays" of the market to past debacles, you will find almost NONE of them work.
Last year in January I posted a pattern where NASDAQ:TSLA was mimicking the fundamental and technical price pattern that NYSE:MCD McDonalds had from over a decade ago when it fell 75% on a rough patch for its business. It turned out to be identical and NASDAQ:TSLA rallied over 150% last year just exactly the same as happened to $MCD. I'll post the link down below for you to view.
The overlay here between NASDAQ:MSFT and the 1987 SP:SPX is pretty amazing but we have no catalysts to make it drop. Stay tuned on any weakness and look for cheap hedges (long term puts out to July-Oct-Dec for this year). Don't spend more than 1% of an account to hedge a position, but if you hedge it correctly you can protect against a large decline without much cost to a portfolio.
Here's hoping this pattern doesn't 'pan-out' because it would be or could be very disruptive to the markets.
Wishing you all health and success in the markets this year and thanks to TradingView for all of the great tools for doing research!
Cheers,
Tim
Friday, February 23, 2024 8:59PM EST
Who's left to buy? And if so for how much longer?As stated in my previous idea I'm of the belief big tech is close to topping out, When I view these charts I can see cases for all to be nearing a top (yes they can go higher) but It won't matter much if the overall trend is close to terminating. Ask yourself logically who is actually left to buy here and happy about it? and if so how much longer can they do it for?, The potential downside risk on all of these trumps the short term gains you might make.
MSFT is over bought base on strategy.I am shorting this stock because of some reasons, i am an ICT concept trader, and using his concept we have a clean Bearish Breaker, so, i waiting for a retirement into the premium , and enter a position with decent 1:3 RR
Microsoft Corp. Major Crash After 4,648 Of Bullish Action After almost 13 years of bullish action, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) is about to enter wave c of a major ABC correction.
The RSI peaked Feb. 2020. (A multiple years long bearish divergence.)
Wave b hits a higher high compared to the start of wave a due to the side-effects of monetary expansion.
Since monetary expansion was strong in the year 2020/21, this translates on the chart as an irregular correction; here a long-term one. (Or we could say "erratic market behaviour;" the side-effects of too much money printing.)
Will money flow from traditional markets toward Cryptocurrency?
I've seen several charts pointing to a very strong bear-market coming for some of the traditional stocks; bigger than what we would normally expect.
I would like to belief that everything will be fine and these stocks will forever grow, but what I am seeing is a massive bearish phase that is specific to major stocks.
I belief Microsoft is going down based on this chart.
Namaste.
** MSFT Weekly Price Action Review ** Going over the last weeks Price Action for MSFT and trying to listen more to what the market is telling us. Our Game Plan for MSFT.
$MSFT Realistic pullback targetsNASDAQ:MSFT Realistic pullback targets
I have found that, over the years, anticipating pullback targets from before a pullback starts can help you keep your cool once it does start. Being able to see realistic pullback targets is a superpower.
If you are an ultra-long-term investor, any of these targets would be a great place to add on the way down…
And if you’re a trader then these will undoubtedly be levels where there may be more volatility and interest.
So in the latest rally, the supports for that are the red dotted lines (the 35EMA weekly and daily) and if they break there are some juicy targets to keep on your radar.
The Sky's the Limit for MicrosoftNASDAQ:MSFT Microsoft (MSFT) Has been consolidating for the past month and has broken through to the upside. Anticipate this bullish momentum to bring new all time highs for the tech titan!
Let's dive into the key factors that make Microsoft a compelling investment opportunity.
Cloud Services: Microsoft Azure is a leading cloud platform, competing head-to-head with Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud. As more businesses move their operations to the cloud, Microsoft is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend. The company's cloud services are expected to drive substantial revenue growth in the future.
Artificial Intelligence: Microsoft has been making significant investments in AI, with its AI-powered products like Cortana, Bing, and Office 365. The company's recent acquisition of Nuance Communications further strengthens its position in the AI space. The potential for AI to revolutionize various industries makes Microsoft's focus on this area a key growth driver.
Gaming and Entertainment: Microsoft's Xbox gaming console and Game Pass subscription service have been gaining popularity among gamers. The company's acquisition of ZeniMax Media, the parent company of Bethesda Softworks, further bolsters its gaming portfolio. As the gaming industry continues to expand, Microsoft is well-positioned to benefit from this growth.
Strong Financials: Microsoft boasts a robust balance sheet with a healthy cash flow and a strong history of dividend growth. The company's financial strength provides a solid foundation for future growth and allows it to invest in new technologies and acquisitions.
Valuation: While Microsoft's stock price has experienced a significant run-up in recent months, many analysts believe that there is still room for growth. The company's strong fundamentals and growth prospects make it an attractive investment opportunity, even at current valuation levels.
$MSFT - looks ready🪂▹Failed to hold 20ema today.
▹RSI bearish divergence intact after tweezer-top.
▹Bearish MACD, MFI, and Stoch.
▹Volume shelf.
My targets are:
390-392 (50ema) ➳ 383-384 ➳ 374-376 (volume shelf).
