Bearish shark harmonic almost completedIf we see a reaction at the completion, look out below.
I dont think tech is going to go much longer without a pullback.
The last few stragglers are fomoing in right now.
MSF trade ideas
MSFT AnalysisPrice playing out nicely as analyzed last week, giving us a 7.97% move to the downside. Target for this down move is the bullish OB at 322.72 which will be mitigated soon. From there, we should see a confirmation on the lower timeframe before taking any longs.
MSFT 3 MAJOR spirals due on aug 9 +or - 3 days topThe chart posted is that of msft . I now can project an a turn to watch for most likey the top in msft on or about 8/9 f10 f11 f12 upside target 381/383
MSFTAppears to be rejecting monthly supply/previous highs/key Fib extension from the 99 high to 09 low. I'm short this name for the foreseeable future. Another monthly 50 sma test ($250ish) doesn't seem too crazy if this level holds as resistance imo.
The goal of reducing 180$According to the Butterfly pattern, the Fibo perfectly converges the decline to the target of $ 180. We also go down the channel where the lower border of the channel will be. All 3 parameters should be added together. We should reach it by June 2024, there will be a great point for going to long.
MICROSOFT Potential weekly retracement zone
After taking out Buyside Liquidity, it's possible MICROSOFT will retrace to the noted FVG in discount.
MSFT: Head & Shoulder Pattern formationMSFT: Head & Shoulder Pattern formation hence going short at the neckline.
MSFT setting up for a "mini" correction MSFT appears to be setting up for a bull run even though it is already exceptionally expensive PE. Regardless of fundamentals such as its massive investment in AI/chatCPT and formidable challenges against Google with its Bing platform, etc
Similar to AMD, MSFT is experiencing negative MACD signals which suggest a relative good buying opportunity is coming ahead, from July 15 at the earliest.
Should MSFT go below 288 / fib 0.786 to rest the last high however will turn out to be interesting. Risk vs rewards.
MSFT BuyMSFT at low of the channel. High chances of going from here to run up. If it fail to remain in the channel then low journey is confirmed.
MSFT earnings watchMSFT earnings are today 7/25/23 at 4:05pm. Microsoft (MSFT) reported earnings of 2.45 per share on revenue of 52.86 billion for the fiscal Q3 ending March 2023. The consensus earnings estimate was 2.22 per share on revenue of 51.03 billion. The company beat expectations by 8.41% while revenue grew 7.08% on a year-over-year basis. The company said during its conference call it expects Q4 revenue of 54.85 billion to 55.85 billion. The current consensus revenue estimate is 54.9 billion for the quarter ending June 30, 2023.
MSFT Q4 June 2023 Consensus:
EPS = 2.54
Revenue = 55.44 B
PE = 37
MSFT VWMA levels:
VWMA20 = 343
VWMA50 = 334
VWMA100 = 307
VWMA200 = 273
MSFT earnings recap since 2022:
1/25/22 - open 293, high 300, low 269, close 292 = (-1)
4/26/22 - open 280, high 289, low 259, close 282 = +2
7/26/22 - open 259, high 269, low 243, close 262 = +3
10/25/22 - open 247, high 253, low 230, close 234 = (-13)
1/24/23 - open 243, high 255, low 239, close 240 = (-3)
4/25/23 - open 281, high 302, low 275, close 299 = +18
MSFT options data:
7/28 expiry
Put Volume Total 61,778
Call Volume Total 93,180
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.66
Put Open Interest Total 96,832
Call Open Interest Total 136,498
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.71
8/18 expiry
Put Volume Total 16,507
Call Volume Total 44,217
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.37
Put Open Interest Total 201,437
Call Open Interest Total 264,585
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.76
9/15 expiry
Put Volume Total 14,264
Call Volume Total 14,997
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.95
Put Open Interest Total 208,533
Call Open Interest Total 279,806
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.75
MSFT NO CHANGE IN TARGET381/383The chart posted is MSFT and I had stated that the peak would be 361 area we saw a 366 print this is 1.147 x the drop from 2021 peak to the low nov 2022 212 area . I see this has an abc flat to end a wave 4 from which we should rally to 381/383 in wave 5 of wave B 1.236 =target 381 1.27 is 383.9 so now you have the targets for the last part of the puzzle . I am long calls from 327.9 and 329
Watch out for a head & shoulders playing outWith some classic RSI bearish divergence in play, going long now is risky. I am in a short and will be looking for that right shoulder to confirm the bearish bias. Time for the bulls to show up.
MSFT IdeaDon't mind me. Im just bored going through charts. Here's what I'm anticipating for MSFT. I don't really see it playing out this way. I'm very much bearish on this stock short-term
Possible target 277If it does not go below 218, the goal is a short 250. If there is a pullback and goes higher, the head and shoulders will be worked out, there is a goal of 277.
DBL TOP on MSFT? Waaaat! Long Term chart. #MSFT This double top on MSFT screams downside for the Stock Market in August, don't it? July 31st 2023. Levels = From 335 down to 320 316 off 21 SMA. 21 SMA bounce right here??
Call of The Week - MSFT- The stock slid by -1.57% last week after reporting the earnings.
- The RSI negative divergence is released.
- We’re well placed above; $330 support region – the Bollinger bands’ lower band – and the lower boundary of the upward channel.
- Target: $350/$352.
Microsoft Challenges Fib 3.618 levelMicrosoft - NASDAQ:MSFT
Expectations were beat across the board today but what does the long term monthly chart tell us? All is revealed in the chart. This is a key moment for NASDAQ:MSFT and a pull back or break through to established new highs wouldn't surprise. I'm happy to wait for the confirmations outlined in the chart. That MACD cross though looks appealing.
Earnings Summary
- Profits jumped 20% to 20.1 b
- EPS: $2.69 / Exp $2.56
- Revenue: $56.19B / Exp $55.49B
- Azure (cloud) revenue up 26% / Exp 27%
Msft gap closeBounced off lower channel late last week after earnings sell off.
Minor time frame you can see the Inverted H&S that form friday, breakout over 342.50 with a 350 target .
You really don't want to see a break down back below 337 but if you bought some time I'd be comfortable with a 335 stop loss or 50sma.
So ...
Long over 338
1st target will be tough to break at 342 because of the prior price action and 20-21 MA/EMA. But once it gets over that
2nd target - 350
MSFT WAVE 5 of 5 has started target 381/383The chart posted is that of MSFT we have now formed a nice ABC decline after hitting the top of the weekly BB bands . we now very over sold and I have moved back into CALLS in msft today at the open . LOOK for msft to rally to 381/383 this should now most likely bring the sp to 4631/4658 and the QQQ to 388/393 I tend to lead toward 391.3
Microsoft 280USD first targetIt goes up to the price of 350USD and starts to fall to 280USD .
be careful
Consensus Trading Model, What to do with MSFTYou can use different trading models and strategies and give them a score, and then use the summation score as a trading model.
Let's do this for NASDAQ:MSFT and compare 10 different models and give a score of +1 score for bullish, 0 for neutral, and -1 for bearish.
Elliott wave: -1
Wyckoff:0
Mean version:0
Regression Channel:-1
Random Walk Index:-1
Price Action to Support and resistance line:-1
Weekly chart:-1
Alligator Method:0
Super trend:1
Money Flow Index:-1
Piotroski F Score:0
Total score: -5
Conclusion: Microsoft is more likely to experience more decline!
Microsoft - Is The Top Already In?One of the key points to Microsoft is it is, in essence, a U.S. state-backed corporation, and one that is trading at more than $2.5 trillion market cap at present.
You're looking at a company that just set a new all time high while the overall market is not healthy and the macroeconomic fundamentals are actually bearish.
And so, we have to seriously ask ourselves if it's time to short God the top.
Microsoft's price action on the monthly is curious.
The price action is healthy and natural all the way from where it bounces to the top, and only becomes curiously strange when it gets to the top.
Why does a stock that bounces at the right place and forms a fully proper reversal pattern, which we see on the weekly:
Only sweep the All Time High?
Why doesn't it raid the ATH and run bigly larger like NVDIA did?
Well, the answer is actually quite clear when you overlay NVDA to MSFT:
In essence, NVDA at $480-450 is MSFT at $350. The difference in price action you see today is because NVDA was relatively weaker in the past, meaning MSFT was inordinately strong in the past.
Anything that reaches an extreme will reverse. If it reaches the extreme twice, it will reverse hard twice.
The geopolitical situation in the world is not healthy. There is a ton of sabre rattling between NATO and the Nation of China at the moment.
The western propaganda machine wants you to believe that Xi Jinping intends to invade Taiwan because he's very evil very super Mao Zedong++, but in reality it's more like the "International Rules Based Order" wants to use the fact that the Chinese Communist Party is rotten and unforgivable as a handle to depose Xi and have Taiwan invade the Mainland under the guise of international "aide".
Why this matters to you as a trader is because you're flirting with getting gapped down hard since Beijing daytime is New York night time.
If you want to be long right now you need to be hedged long volatility, or you're risking your life.
Moreover, Xi, in order to defend himself, his faction of Chinese nationalists, and China's 5,000 year history, can overthrow the CCP in a Gorbachev-style coup overnight, weaponizing the 24-year-long persecution and genocide of Falun Dafa by the faction belonging to former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it died this year).
The significance is major to traders because your beloved governments, banks, and corporations have stained their hands crimson flirting with the Jiang faction toadies in Shanghai (Babylon) in order to get all the benefits they desire.
Google the Neil Heywood story if you want to see a classic example of a British billionaire getting gibbed by the greatest evil of all time.
Much to do before the call's key points.
Before we continue, I examine the price action I expect to manifest in SPY (SPX Futures ETF) for the remainder of the month, which can serve as something of a compass for what lies ahead:
SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It?
Back to MSFT:
This is a very hard setup to trade
Because the June high may have been a hard top, double and triple top or not (See TSLA July-September '22)
Lower lows lower highs indicates the dip is hard to buy
But the short may only take us to the $320 range.
Sweeping $300 is the key to a bullish continuation above the highs
Maintaining ~$280 is the key to continuing upwards at all.
Microsoft has a really notable catalyst in that its earnings are on July 25 postmarket, which means price action will manifest the morning of July 26, which just so happens to be when the next FOMC meeting is.
After July FOMC the next FOMC is deferred until September 20, 9 days short of quarter end, notable because of the notorious JPM Collar, which I discuss here:
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
What I expect is we see a fairly violent correction on Microsoft back to the $300s before we can see any kind of further meaningful flirtation with a run over the $350 ATH.
But the June high may have been the top for the foreseeable future, as evidenced by the relationship between NVDA and MSFT.
Be careful. The time we have left for happy and normal days is so short you can almost count it on the fingers.
When things really emerge, Nasdaq 8,500 will be the least of your concerns, really.
Microsoft (MSFT) Looking for Zigzag PullbackRally in Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) from the 11.4.2022 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 11.4.2022 low, wave ((1)) ended at 263.92 and pullback in wave ((2)) ended at 219.35. The stock rallies again in wave ((3)) which ended at 366.82 as the 30 minutes chart below shows. Wave ((4)) pullback is currently in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((3)), wave 1 ended at 352.01 and rally in wave 2 ended at 357.97. The stock resumes lower in wave 3 towards 345.37 and wave 4 ended at 350.56. Final leg wave 5 ended at 339.83 which completed wave (A).
Rally in wave (B) ended at 354.9 with internal subdivision as an expanded flat. Up from wave (A), wave ((a)) ended at 349.9, wave ((b)) ended at 345.07, and wave ((c)) ended at 351.89. This completed wave A of (B) in higher degree. Pullback in wave B ended at 338.56 and rally in wave C ended at 354.90 which completed wave (B). The stock now has resumed lower in wave (C). Down from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 333.11. Wave 2 rally is in progress as a zigzag to correct the decline from wave (B). Expect wave 2 rally to fail below wave (B) high at 354.9 and the stock to reesume lower. As far as pivot at 366.82 high stays intact, rally should fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
