NFC trade ideas
Netflix Shares Hit an All-time High Tuesday On Strong Ad SalesKey Takeaways:
- Netflix shares hit an all-time high on the back of a significant increase in upfront ad sales.
- The company reported a 150% surge in advertising commitments compared to 2023.
- Strategic moves in content, technology, and live events have bolstered investor confidence.
Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ), the streaming giant that once dominated the entertainment landscape through its pioneering subscription model, has now reached a new pinnacle in its market journey. On Tuesday, Netflix's shares soared to a record high, closing at $696.59 after touching an all-time high of $711.33 earlier in the day. This surge follows the company's impressive report of a substantial increase in upfront ad sales commitments, signaling a major shift in its business strategy.
A New Era of Advertising Success
Netflix's success in the advertising arena marks a significant turning point. The company announced that it had secured more than a 150% increase in upfront ad sales commitments over 2023, closing deals with all major holding companies and independent agencies. These partnerships are not just for any content, but for some of Netflix’s most anticipated upcoming releases, including global hits like "Squid Game," fan-favorite series "Outer Banks," and the much-anticipated "Happy Gilmore 2." Moreover, Netflix is tapping into the lucrative live event market, securing deals for high-profile broadcasts such as Christmas Day NFL games and "WWE Raw."
This strong performance in ad sales reflects Netflix's strategic decision to evolve beyond its traditional subscription model. For years, Netflix resisted the idea of incorporating ads into its platform, fearing it might alienate its user base. However, in an increasingly competitive streaming landscape, the company’s pivot to an ad-supported tier has proven to be a game-changer. This move not only attracted a new segment of budget-conscious consumers but also opened a new revenue stream that investors are now enthusiastically embracing.
Strategic Shifts Bolster Investor Confidence
Netflix’s surge in stock price is not solely due to its advertising success. The company has also been making strategic shifts to enhance profitability and sustain growth. These include cracking down on account sharing, which has long been a drain on potential revenue. By introducing stricter controls on password sharing, Netflix has effectively compelled many users to convert to paying subscribers, boosting its subscriber base and revenue.
In addition, Netflix has been judicious in its content spending, focusing on producing hits that resonate with global audiences. The success of series like "Bridgerton," surprise hits like "Baby Reindeer," and the French movie "Under Paris" underscore Netflix’s ability to create content that not only captures viewers’ attention but also drives subscriber growth.
Moreover, Netflix’s expansion into live events and sports broadcasting represents another avenue for growth. Live content is a highly sought-after commodity in the streaming world, and Netflix’s foray into this space with events like NFL games indicates its intent to compete on multiple fronts.
Financial Turnaround and Market Position
The financial landscape for Netflix has dramatically improved over the past few years. Once criticized for its heavy spending and negative free cash flow, Netflix has now become a model of profitability. The company’s disciplined approach to content spending, coupled with its new revenue streams from advertising and live events, has alleviated investor concerns about its financial health.
Netflix’s stock, which at one point had lost more than 75% of its value from its 2021 peak, has since rebounded, quadrupling in value. This remarkable turnaround is a testament to the company’s successful adaptation to market challenges and its ability to innovate within a highly competitive industry.
As of this year, Netflix shares have risen by 44%, far outpacing its competitors. While Disney, Warner Bros Discovery, and Paramount Global have struggled with declining stock prices, Netflix has solidified its position as a leader in the streaming industry. The company’s price-to-earnings ratio, now at 32 times estimated earnings, is significantly lower than its 10-year average, reflecting improved investor sentiment and confidence in its long-term strategy.
Technical Outlook
At the present time, Netflix stock ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) has experienced a 1.33% increase and is trading within the overbought region, displaying a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 72 subsequent to reaching a historic peak. Despite the exuberance surrounding the all-time high, traders are advised to exercise vigilance. Notably, Netflix stock ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) is overbought, and any potential reversal in trend could precipitate a decline to the 1-month low, which in turn may result in the breach of the structure established in proximity to the 100-day Moving Average.
Conclusion
Netflix’s recent achievements highlight the company’s ability to evolve and adapt in a rapidly changing entertainment landscape. By embracing advertising, cracking down on account sharing, and expanding into live events, Netflix has not only bolstered its financial performance but also reinvigorated investor confidence. As the company continues to refine its strategy, it appears well-positioned to maintain its leadership in the streaming industry and continue delivering value to its shareholders.
Netflix (NFLX) Shares Reach a Two-Month HighNetflix (NFLX) Shares Reach a Two-Month High
As shown on the daily chart of Netflix (NFLX) shares, the price surpassed the July 19 peak around $677 on Friday but closed well below the day’s highs. Notably:
→ Since August 5, Netflix (NFLX) has outperformed stock indices;
→ The stock has risen by about 15% from the August 5 close.
Will the rally continue?
Bullish argument:
→ Analysts expect an improvement in the company’s fundamentals following enhancements to its business model. According to Zacks, Netflix might report earnings of $5.07 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of +35.9%. The Zacks consensus estimate has risen by +7.9% over the past 30 days.
Bearish argument:
According to SEC filings, Netflix’s Chief Legal Officer sold $7 million worth of shares. Could this sale be motivated by insider information that might lead to a decline in the stock price?
Technical analysis of the Netflix (NFLX) daily chart indicates that the price is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue), and the sharp rise from the August 5 low has pushed the RSI indicator from the oversold zone to the brink of the overbought zone. However, resistance levels have come into focus:
→ The median of the ascending channel;
→ The peak around $697;
→ The psychological resistance around $700.
Given Friday’s weak close and the sharp rise over the past two weeks, it’s reasonable to suggest that Netflix (NFLX) shares are vulnerable to a correction.
The average price forecast for Netflix (NFLX) is $704.94 over the next 12 months (according to a survey of analysts conducted by TipRanks).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NFLX / NETFLIXMarket Insight: NFLX (Netflix, Inc.)
Our predictions have highlighted key moments for investors:
• First Green Line (August 12th, 2024): A potential buying opportunity, as market conditions stabilize.
• First Red Line (October 28th, 2024): Consider taking profits or reducing exposure before possible market downturns.
• Second Green Line (January 6th, 2025): A favorable time to re-enter or increase positions, with market optimism on the rise.
• Second Red Line (April 14th, 2025): Another signal to safeguard your investments, preparing for possible volatility.
These points serve as guiding lights, helping navigate the financial journey with both wisdom and discernment.
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: NFLX Should Continue RallyShort Term Elliott Wave in NFLX suggests that the Stock has completed a bearish sequence from 7.05.2024 high. The decline made a double correction Elliott Wave structure. Down from 7.05.2024 high, wave (W) ended at 600.00 low. Rally in wave (X) ended at 678.97 with internal subdivision as a zig zag correction structure. Up from wave (W), wave A ended at 655.54 and wave B ended at 631.50. Wave C higher ended at 678.97 which completed wave (X) in higher degree.
Then, NFLX turned lower in wave (Y) with internal subdivision as another double correction structure. Down from wave (X), wave W ended at 617.00 and wave X ended at 646.71. Last leg wave Y lower ended at 583.50 which completed wave (Y) and ((4)) in higher degree. The current rally is in progress expecting to continue higher as wave ((5)). Near term, we are calling a leading diagonal as wave 1 of (1) of ((5)). This wave 1 ended at 632.00 high and wave 2 pullback finished at 605.50. From this point, the stock resumed to the upside in wave 3 and once the wave 3 is completed, it should see 3, 7 or 11 swings correction as wave 4 before resuming the rally again.
NFLX - end of story- the slowdown in the US economy seems to be perceived even in Wall Street, or perhaps not, there they cannot see anything yet
- the yield curve behaviour indicates potential recession
- labour market shows symptoms of weakness - minor ones but still
- carry trade goes away slowly
- insiders sell not buy
I am out if the Mag7 stocks for some time already, now I think it is possible to buy PUTs on selected techs - be it NFLX. Perhaps it is good to wait till NVDA shows results on Aug 28th, then decide
Netflix reports continued revenue growth amid strategic shiftsNetflix Inc. has once again demonstrated a robust increase in revenue, confirming the effectiveness of its strategic initiatives aimed at boosting subscriber growth. A significant aspect of Netflix's strategy has been tightening rules against account sharing and introducing cheaper, ad-supported subscription plans. These measures have attracted new subscribers successfully, particularly those sensitive to price, leading to sustained revenue growth over several quarters.
For Q3, Netflix projects its revenue to reach 9.73 billion USD, marking a 13.9% increase year-on-year. Earnings are expected to rise by 36.7%, reaching 5.1 USD per share. Netflix's heavy investment in new original projects and securing rights to popular existing content is a key part of its growth strategy, positioning the company well for future success.
Technical analysis of Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX)
Here is an analysis of potential trading opportunities based on Netflix's current stock performance:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current trend : the stock is in a downtrend but shows potential for reversing into an uptrend
Resistance level : 633.60 USD
Support level : 587.05 USD
Potential downtrend target : if the downtrend persists, the next target could be around 540.00 USD
Short-term target : if the trend reverses and breaks through the resistance at 633.60 USD, a short-term target could be set at 675.00 USD
Medium-term target : with continued positive momentum, the stock price might aim for 700.00 USD
Investors and traders should closely monitor Netflix, particularly given its proactive measures to increase its subscriber base and revenue. The company's focus on content creation and adaptation to market demands plays a critical role in its ongoing success. If these strategies continue to prove effective, they could drive its stock performance upward.
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Netflix investment A nice cooling pull back after we hit new high on Netflix aswell this is beautiful,understand this trend n the pull backs,n manage your risk in order to enjoy investing your money in stock markets,they are beautiful things that grows very nice n they trend up,soo everytime you see big pull backs it's your chance to get into positions not a loss noo,allow your system to work n see this markets in bigger time frame in years n how they trend n find yourself entry too n hold for coming years .
Netflix Trend Prediction Amid Recent News $7 Million Donation Description:
The chart presents the daily stock price movements of Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) on the NASDAQ exchange. Key technical indicators utilized in the analysis include:
LuxAlgo Candlestick Structure:
The chart displays a candlestick pattern structure that helps to visualize price movements over time, aiding in the identification of trends and potential reversal points.
SuperTrend Indicator:
The SuperTrend indicator (parameters: 10, 20, 50, 200, 4, 20) is utilized to highlight the trend direction. The indicator overlays on the price chart to show bullish or bearish trends, assisting in making buy or sell decisions.
MA-Cloud:
The Moving Average (MA) Cloud with parameters high 200, 0 close 200, 25 (values: 576.76, 569.80) provides a visual representation of the average price over time. This cloud serves as a support and resistance zone, indicating potential areas where the price might reverse or consolidate.
Prediction:
Recent news regarding the Netflix CEO donating $7 million to a political figure may influence stock movement. The technical analysis suggests the following potential scenarios:
Channel Formation: The stock appears to be entering a channel pattern, with support around the MA-Cloud (576.76 - 569.80) and resistance near recent highs around 692.65. This indicates that the stock might trade sideways within this range as investors digest the news.
Downward Pressure: Given the recent news, there might be negative sentiment impacting the stock. If the price breaks below the support zone provided by the MA-Cloud, it could signal a bearish trend and potential further decline.
In summary, while the technical indicators show a potential channel pattern for NFLX, the recent news could exert downward pressure. Investors should monitor the support and resistance levels closely and be prepared for potential volatility.
Analyzing Netflix’s Chart After EarningsStreaming giant Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX beat Wall Street’s consensus view on both top- and bottom-line Q2 results last week –- but the stock fell 1.5% the next day anyway. What might technical analysis tell us about where the stock goes from here?
As a reminder, Netflix reported a week ago Thursday after the bell that it earned $4.88 per fully diluted share during Q2 on $9.56 billion of revenue, beating the consensus $4.74 EPS and $9.53 billion in sales that analysts had expected.
The company’s 8.05 million in additional global paid memberships also surprised analysts in a good way, while management’s bottom-line guidance of about $5.10 in GAAP earnings per share for Q3 crushed the $4.74 or so that the Street was looking for. (The company’s $9.73 billion of Q3 top-line guidance came in a little shy of what analysts had expected.)
Looking at a regression model of Netflix’s recent chart, readers will see that the stock has been in an ascending price channel since May 2022, as represented by the blue and pink shaded areas in the graph below:
That ascending channel is more than two years old now, which brings to mind two famous Wall Street sayings: “The Trend Is Your Friend” and “The Trend Is Not Broken Until It Breaks.”
Netflix’s Potential Support and Resistance Levels
Now, let’s zoom into Netflix’s chart for the November 2023-July 2024 period, which more clearly shows the stock’s recent price action (as denoted by the line of green and red bars in the chart below):
We can see at the right side of the chart that NFLX is fighting to stay above the stock’s 50-Day Simple Moving Average (as denoted by the blue line above).
Now, that line has been pierced, but as long as the daily range maintains contact, the 50-Day SMA has not been actually been broken as far as technical analysis is concerned.
However, should Netflix fail to hold its 50-day SMA line as support, there isn’t much in the way of help technically for a long way down.
The stock’s 200-Day Simple Moving Average (the red line above) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of Netflix’s entire rally (the purple line) are both about $100 below the stock’s July 24 price action.
Conversely, the pivot to the upside -– Netflix’s $697 early July high -- is fairly far away from the stock’s July 24 close as well.
In other words, Netflix would have to move up or down pretty significantly to hit one of these lines and change its technical picture.
In the meantime, one might consider trading the stock shorter-term around its 50-Day Simple Moving Average and its rapidly descending 21-day Exponential Moving Average (denoted by the green line above).
This presentation discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. Moomoo makes no representation or warranty as to its adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeline for any particular purpose of the above content. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
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$NFLX it was fun wall it lastedNASDAQ:NFLX while it's been a nice 300% gain over the last year 2 years, I think the trend is starting to reverse.
If you look at the chart, you'll see that we've formed a double top. You'll also see the price has held the trend line fairly well on the way up. Now we've rejected it twice and I think that price is heading much lower from here.
I think we're likely to see new lows by end of year. We've seen 3 touches on the support at $163, which leads me to believe that if price can retest that level, we'll break it and see new lows.
I think the lower supports $88-124 are likely.
I've taken these positions to express the view:
10 NFLX 08/16/2024 550.00 P
60 NFLX 01/17/2025 200.00 P
Let's see how it plays out