NVDA further consolidation needed Purgatory should be expected after the most recent 2-3 year run IMO... NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SMH
= Sideways chop to down can be expected.
NVD trade ideas
NVDA Hits the Ceiling – Breakout or Bull Trap?NVIDIA is charging into a massive resistance wall with fading momentum and no volume punch—either it explodes through $150 or this rally dies at the top.
Technical Breakdown – NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)
1. Price Action – Into the Fire
NVDA is retesting its all-time high zone ($135–$150), which previously rejected multiple times. This yellow/red zone is a congestion and distribution range — classic bear battleground. Each push into this area has ended in selling pressure — so buyers need real power to break it this time.
2. MACD – Bullish, But Flattening
MACD crossed bullish in early May, driving this run. However, momentum is now flattening out — a sign that follow-through is weakening. Histogram bars are shrinking → momentum is fading, not building.
3. RSI – Bullish but Tiring
RSI peaked near 70 and is now at 63.06 — momentum rolled off just as price hit resistance. This sets up a bearish divergence risk: if price breaks higher and RSI makes a lower high, that’s a classic top signal. For now, RSI is still constructive, but losing steam.
4. Volume – No Climax Yet
Volume is not exploding on this push into resistance — suggests this is not a conviction breakout (yet). Prior breakouts came with clear volume surges; without that, we could see a failed breakout / bull trap.
5. Contextual Read – High Expectations
Sentiment around NVDA is extremely bullish with AI mania in full gear. But that’s exactly when tops form — when everyone’s already in, there are no marginal buyers left. The $135–$150 zone is where smart money sells to latecomers if there's no catalyst to push higher.
Conclusion – NVDA at a Probable Inflection Point
NVIDIA is at major resistance with waning momentum and no volume confirmation — the burden of proof is on the bulls.
Unless:
We get a decisive close above $150 on surging volume
MACD extends bullish
RSI holds above 60
This looks like a sell zone, not a buy zone.
NVDA Just Broke Structure – Bounce or Breakdown Incoming?📊 NVDA GEX Daily (Options Sentiment Overview)
NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) closed at $135.13, down nearly 3% on Friday, and has now pulled back from the gamma resistance cluster between 140–145. GEX sentiment is cooling, and the chart shows we just lost the HVL (High Volume Level) around 137.5, putting bulls in a tricky spot.
GEX Levels to Know:
* 🟢 Positive gamma stack at 140 → 145 → 150, with 143.9 as the next key magnet IF price recovers.
* 🟥 Heavy dealer put interest below 134 → 130 → 125; GEX sharply negative down there.
* 🧊 IVR 10.2 = super cheap options → ideal setup for directional trades using debit spreads.
💡 Options Strategy:
* Bullish: If NVDA reclaims 137.5, play for bounce back to 140–143. Look at Jul 19 140c or 137.5/145c spread.
* Bearish: If it fails to reclaim 135 and breaks 133.25, play toward 130–131. Look at Jul 19 132p/125p vertical.
Dealers may flip short under 133, increasing the chance of acceleration if support breaks.
🕵️♂️ 1H Chart Breakdown (Swing/Intraday View)
The 1-hour chart tells a clear story: NVDA broke short-term structure with CHoCH and BOS under 135, and is now channeling downward with a falling wedge-type pattern. The SMC supply at 143–145 held strong.
Key Notes:
* ⚠️ Breakdown from rising structure, now forming new bearish channel.
* 🟩 Short-term CHoCH support near 133.25 is key — if lost, opens 130 fast.
* 🟣 Momentum + RSI screaming overbought → likely a lower high if it bounces to 138 area.
📈 Swing Setup:
* Short bias while under 137.5.
* Entry: rejection near 136–137
* Target: 133.2, then 130.4
* Bull case only resumes if we reclaim 138 clean → invalidates the breakdown.
📊 Intraday Playbook:
* Short bounce into 136.25–137.5 (previous BOS zone).
* Long scalp bounce off 133.25, but only for short-term risk-controlled play.
Bias = Bearish unless 137.5 is reclaimed. Don’t fight the momentum.
🧠 Final Thoughts
NVDA has shifted from leader to potential drag — at least near term. The structure is broken, and GEX is aligning with downside momentum. IV is cheap, making this a great week for defined-risk option plays, whether you’re looking to fade pops or scalp breakdowns.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
Nvidia - The bullish consolidation flag!Nvidia - NASDAQ:NVDA - is still quite bullish:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
After Nvidia retested a major horizontal support just last month, we witnessed an extremely strong bullish reversal candle which resulted in a strong +50% rally. Considering the bullish flag consolidation, a breakout is much more likely, but not in the immediate future.
Levels to watch: $150
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
TSLA Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025📉 TSLA Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025
🚨 AI Consensus: Bearish Momentum Ahead of June 6 Expiry
🧠 Summary of AI Model Signals
🔹 Grok (xAI)
Technicals: Below EMAs, RSI deeply oversold (26.95), MACD bearish.
Sentiment: VIX steady, max pain at $340 implies downside.
Trade: Buy $340P @ $8.25 → Target $9.08 (+10%) / Stop $6.60 (−20%)
Confidence: 65%
🔹 Claude (Anthropic)
Technicals: Bearish EMAs/MACD, volume spike on red bars.
Sentiment: Negative sales buzz, falling VIX, max pain $340.
Trade: Buy $340P @ $8.20 → Target +50–100% / Stop $5.74
Confidence: 72%
🔹 Llama (Meta)
Technicals: Bearish M5 EMA stack; support at $345 zone.
Trade: Buy $342.5P @ $9.40 → Target +20% / Stop −50%
Confidence: 70%
🔹 Gemini (Google)
Technicals: Strong bearish momentum, RSI oversold.
Trade: Buy $305P @ $0.95 → Target $1.90 / Stop $0.47 (Day trade)
Confidence: 75%
🔹 DeepSeek
Technicals: Breakdown in progress, momentum fading.
Sentiment: Weak China/Europe news; max pain support at $340.
Trade: Buy $340P @ $8.25 → Target $12.38 (+50%) / Stop $5.78
Confidence: 70%
✅ Consensus Takeaways
🔻 Bearish technical setup on all timeframes
🔄 Max Pain at $340 = potential price magnet
📉 Strong directional momentum + oversold RSI across models
📆 Preferred strategy: Buy weekly naked puts, enter Monday open
🎯 Recommended Trade Setup
💡 Strategy: Bearish Single-Leg Weekly Put
📈 Ticker: TSLA
🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT)
🎯 Strike: $340
💵 Entry Price: $8.25
🎯 Target: $9.08 (+10%)
🛑 Stop: $6.60 (−20%)
📏 Size: 1 Contract
📆 Expiry: 2025-06-06
⏰ Entry: At Market Open
📊 Confidence: 70%
⚠️ Key Risks to Watch
📉 RSI is oversold — potential for a short-term bounce
🕒 Time decay accelerates midweek — don’t hold too long
🚀 Unexpected bullish catalyst (e.g., SpaceX PR, macro rally)
💵 Liquidity fine (4.4k OI), but wide spreads in fast markets
📊 TRADE DETAILS (JSON)
json
Copy
Edit
{
"instrument": "TSLA",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 340.0,
"expiry": "2025-06-06",
"confidence": 0.70,
"profit_target": 9.08,
"stop_loss": 6.60,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 8.25,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-06-02 09:30:00 UTC-04:00"
}
NVIDIA Nvidia Stock Correlation with 10-Year Bond Yields, Bond Prices, and Interest Rates
1. Correlation with Bond Yields and Interest Rates
10-Year Bond Yields: Nvidia’s stock (NVDA) has shown mixed sensitivity to bond yields. Rising yields (e.g., 30-year yields surpassing 5% in May 2025) historically pressured tech stocks by increasing discount rates for future earnings. However, Nvidia’s AI-driven growth narrative has partially offset this, as seen in its 69% YoY revenue surge in Q1 2025 despite bond market volatility.
Interest Rates: The Fed’s rate cut expectations (priced for September 2024 and beyond) have supported risk assets like Nvidia. Lower rates reduce borrowing costs for AI infrastructure investments, indirectly benefiting NVDA.
2. Factors Driving Revenue Growth in 2025
AI Infrastructure Spending:
Cloud providers (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) invested $50B+ in Q2 2025 on AI infrastructure, with Nvidia capturing 70–95% of the AI chip market.
Data center revenue hit $39.1B in Q1 2025 (+142% YoY), driven by demand for Hopper and Blackwell GPUs.
Blackwell GPU Launch:
The Blackwell GB200 GPU, offering 30x faster AI inference, is projected to generate $45B+ in FY2025 revenue as production scales.
Market Share Expansion:
Nvidia’s semiconductor market share tripled since 2020 to 7.3%, overtaking Intel and Samsung in key segments.
3. Upcoming Challenges
Export Restrictions in China:
Export controls cost Nvidia $8B in Q1 2025 revenue and could erase $15B annually if unresolved. The H20 chip’s limited performance further strains China-market competitiveness.
Competition and Market Saturation:
AMD and Intel are accelerating AI chip development, while cloud providers design in-house alternatives (e.g., Google’s TPU).
Valuation and Volatility:
NVDA’s 30% stock correction in July 2024 highlighted sensitivity to AI spending concerns. Analysts warn of “exuberance fatigue” as earnings growth slows from triple-digit to 45% YoY.
Macro Risks:
Rising Treasury yields (e.g., 10-year at 4.54%) and federal debt concerns ($36T) could divert capital from tech to bonds.
Summary Table
Factor Impact on Nvidia Stock (NVDA) Source Citations
10-Year Yield ↑ Mixed (pressure from discount rates vs. AI growth)
Interest Rate Cuts Positive (supports tech spending)
AI Spending Major revenue driver ($115B data center sales)
China Export Curbs $8B–$15B annual revenue risk
Competition Threatens market share (AMD, in-house chips)
Nvidia's stock (NVDA) currently shows a mixed correlation with 10-year US Treasury bond yields amid recent market shifts. While rising bond yields typically pressure high-growth tech stocks like Nvidia by increasing discount rates on future earnings, Nvidia’s strong earnings and dominant position in AI hardware have helped it partially decouple from this trend.
Recent Data: Nvidia’s stock price is around $135 (down ~3% on the day), reflecting some volatility after a strong rally earlier in 2025 fueled by stellar AI-driven revenue growth.
Bond Yields Context: The US 10-year Treasury yield recently hovered near 4.49% to 4.54%, with 30-year yields surpassing 5% amid fiscal concerns. Rising yields generally increase borrowing costs and discount future earnings, which can weigh on Nvidia’s valuation.
Market Reaction: Despite higher yields, Nvidia’s shares rallied after strong earnings and optimistic guidance, suggesting investor confidence in its AI growth story offsets some bond market pressure.
Volatility and Risks: The stock remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors such as rising yields, trade tensions, and export restrictions impacting China sales. Nvidia’s price movements often reflect the balance between its growth prospects and broader market risk sentiment influenced by bond yields.
In summary, Nvidia’s stock and bond yields currently exhibit a partial inverse correlation, but Nvidia’s unique growth drivers in AI technology have softened the typical negative impact of rising yields on its stock price. Investors continue to watch bond yield trends closely, as sustained increases could cap further gains or increase volatility in Nvidia shares.
Conclusion
Nvidia’s stock remains buoyed by AI demand and Fed rate cut optimism but faces headwinds from bond yield volatility, China restrictions, and competition. While its $44.1B Q1 2025 revenue underscores dominance, sustaining growth requires navigating export rules and proving Blackwell’s long-term profitability. Investors should monitor bond market shifts and AI spending trends for directional cues.
#NVIDIA #STOCKS #BONDS #DOLLAR
NVIDIA Stock Weekly Outlook: Support Holds Strong as $185 TargetThe weekly chart of NVDA shows a strong continuation pattern forming after a period of consolidation and a healthy pullback. The recent price action confirms a bullish stance, with a fresh bounce off support and momentum gradually shifting in favor of the bulls.
________________________________________
Long-Term Uptrend Confirmed
The blue ascending trendline drawn from early 2023 remains intact, showing that the overall trend is still bullish. NVDA has respected this trendline multiple times, with each touch followed by a renewed upward move. This week, the price rebounded once again near this trendline, confirming its role as dynamic support and signaling renewed buying interest.
________________________________________
Resistance and Breakout Potential
The key resistance level is marked at $152.98, which represents the recent weekly high and a psychological barrier. This level has acted as a ceiling in past attempts, but the current structure and momentum suggest a potential breakout if volume confirms. Above this level, there's clear air up to $185, where the next major resistance sits, and which also acts as the projected target in this trade setup.
________________________________________
Support Holding Strong
A strong support zone around $93.40 is clearly defined and has already triggered multiple rejections. NVDA recently saw a sharp bounce from this zone after a downward rejection, signaling that institutional buyers may be active here. This area is the foundation of the current bullish case.
________________________________________
Momentum Turning Favorably
The True Strength Index (TSI), shown at the bottom of the chart, is emerging from a low region. While not yet fully bullish, the indicator is starting to turn upward, suggesting early signs of momentum building. If TSI crosses above the midline in coming weeks, it could confirm the start of a sustained upward move.
________________________________________
Trade Setup
• Entry Zone: $138 to $140 (current price range)
• Stop-Loss: $110 (beneath the last significant swing low)
• Target: $185 (aligns with the next major resistance and top of risk-reward box)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1.5:1
• Setup Bias: Swing to mid-term bullish continuation
________________________________________
Conclusion
NVIDIA’s weekly chart is aligning in favor of the bulls after a healthy consolidation and support retest. The price remains within a strong uptrend channel, and momentum is gradually improving. A breakout above $152.98 would likely attract more volume and set the stage for a rally toward $185. The risk-reward setup is favorable, making this a strong candidate for bullish swing positioning heading into Q3 2025.
NVDA looks to go downNVDA is not maintained its support level of 138.24 and its expect to fall support level of 129.12. Wait for fresh entry it it fall to 129.12 or rise to 138.24.
Note: This is not a buy/sell trade call.
No Further FallThe declinesince October seems to be over for now. Past week we had nonew low and the new attempt to fall past week could not be continued.
This may be the beginning of a correction of the decline since February at least.
NVDA 4 HR. WAVE 5 IS LIKELY OVER & DROPPING ON CORRECTION!1). Price is very likely heading towards the fair Market value @ 123. 2). Risk Assets are weak today on US$ strength! 3). BANKS ARE SELLING! 4). Volume is dropping. 5). Trendline intersecting with target fib. level 100% & PRICE 123.
NVDA: Ascending triangle break, bull flag on S/R retestHey traders! I'm back and once again, I've spent almost the whole evening (lol) trying to figure out the odd, strange price action we've seen from NASDAQ:NVDA over the past few weeks, and especially today!
As we all know (I assume), Nvidia failed to disappoint on earnings once again, and we saw a HUGE gap up overnight, as far as up to the $143 mark. However, we soon began to see a dip. That's fair, as traders will likely sell and take profit.
However, the dip became a larger dip, and Nvidia finished the day basically at 3.2%. But it seems that the pullback may been pretty healthy.
Because as you can see from the chart, Nvidia has been forming an ascending triangle ever since the 14th May. That was after the sweet run it had prior to that. It has tested the £136-137 area as a major resistance line ever since until finally, a strong earnings report sent Nvidia above the line.
After the gap up, throughout the day, the stock went into a controlled, composed downward channel which what we like to call, a bull flag. This is taking into consideration market hours, not extended hours. This bull flag is bullish in its own way, but it is also a sign of a retest of the $136-137 resistance zone. This is officially a support zone now.
A successful retest from this support zone will cause a bounce, especially from the support trendline, and likely send the stock towards $140+, possibly extending its reach to $150 if broader market strength (Nasdaq) continues.
On the contrary, a dip below the support line and a crash below the red support trendline, would likely send the stock lower to $133 as next support.
As long as Nvidia maintains $136-137, the bulls are in control.
Note: Not financial advice. Please do your DD.
Nvidia Maintains Bearish Bias After EarningsNvidia released its quarterly earnings yesterday, and since then, market confidence triggered a significant bullish gap that pushed the stock price up by nearly 5%. However, in recent hours, a new bearish bias has started to emerge, steadily closing the gap as the market digests the company’s latest report.
Nvidia reported $44 billion in revenue, slightly above the $43 billion expected, while earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.77, below the $0.87 forecast. Nevertheless, the most notable aspect of the report was the announcement of an estimated $8 billion revenue loss due to U.S. export restrictions. In response, CEO Jensen Huang strongly criticized these measures, warning that they could negatively impact the company’s performance in the coming months.
Uptrend Channel Remains Intact
Since early April, Nvidia has maintained a steady upward channel. Although a slight bearish bias has emerged recently, it is not yet strong enough to pose a threat to the broader bullish trend seen in recent months. Therefore, this technical structure remains the most important pattern for the upcoming sessions.
Technical Indicators:
RSI: The Relative Strength Index has begun to show signs of a possible bearish divergence, as lower highs on the RSI contrast with higher highs in the stock price. This mismatch could signal short-term corrective movements.
MACD: The MACD, meanwhile, continues to oscillate around the zero line, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressure. As long as the histogram remains near this level, it suggests neutral momentum in price direction.
Key Levels to Watch:
$140 USD: Current resistance level where short-term selling pressure may emerge.
$150 USD: Distant resistance around January highs. A breakout toward this level could support a stronger bullish channel.
$125 USD: Important support that coincides with the 200-period moving average. A bearish move toward this level could break the current bullish formation.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Nvidia after earningsSo , now the earnings were overall good, I actually do not care so much about earnings but more about expectations which were very good. Were still in a weak market sentiment, and in a summer hole with low liquidity, but I need to admit Nvidia is the star of the market for now.
NVDA roadmap of Support / Resistance levels going into Earnings
NVDA earnings soon that the entire world will be watching.
Plotted are key levels mapped by its Genesis and Covid fibs.
Look for the move to stop and rebound at one of these zones.
$ 140.35-141.09 is the first resistance above.
$ 148.64-150.04 is the All Time High resistance.
$ 122.25 is a Golden Covid fib for bulls to hold.
$ 111.63-113.56 is pretty much Bulls' Last Stand
See "Related Publications" links to the right ----------->>>>
for previous plots that played out EXACTLY.
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$NVDA - head and shoulders + possible bull shark harmonicOn my chart, NVDA appears to be potentially forming a head and shoulders pattern.
At the same time, an almost perfect bullish shark harmonic woukd comple around the target for the head and shoulders pattern.
Could be something, could be nothing.
But I'll be careful and not spend my money on NVDA just yet.
Positive earnings might invalidate this idea and send NASDAQ:NVDA to the moon instead.
Let's see what happens.
NVDA ER targets!!
144-148 for bullish news, beats expectations
123-126 for meeting expectations, base case
111-114 for missing expectations
TL;DR I favor the short side...I'd open an ITM bearish Broken Wing Butterfly. But it's too much risk for my port so I'm staying out.
NVIDIA/USD 4 HR./ CORRECTIVE WAVE B NORTH IS LIKELY OVER!1). Price is very likely heading towards the fair Market value @ 123! 2). Risk Assets are Weak today on US$ strength! 3). BANKS ARE SELLING! 4). Volume is dropping. 5). Trendline is intersecting with target fib. level 100% TOWARDS 123! 6). Corrective wave C is likely dropping to complete wave 4. 7). At the bottom of wave 4 we will look for a long (Buy) position!
NVDA Q1 Earnings: Strong Fundamentals Amid Geopolitical NoiseDespite recent trade restrictions, Nvidia has shown remarkable operational strength, beating expectations with $44.1 billion in revenue and a 73% YoY growth in its data center segment, fueled by rising demand for artificial intelligence. While international tensions led to a projected $8 billion loss, the market responded with confidence—viewing it as a temporary adjustment rather than a structural threat. This strong financial position supports our CALL contract entry, which is already gaining value. If tomorrow’s GDP data confirms economic stability, we could see another bullish move, and if our technical target is reached, we’ll exit as planned.
SPX Bullish Patterns Emerging ahead of NVIDIA EarningsThe SP:SPX has taken out some major pivots and recaptured the ever so important daily 200 MA.
across multiple time frames some very interesting bullish patterns are emerging.
All eyes will be in NASDAQ:NVDA earnings tonight after the bell.
If NVIDIA beats and guides it will breakout of an epic bull flag pattern that will likely casue this market to trend to new All time highs.
Probabilities from a technical pattern standpoint are pointing towards higher price action.
We have already broken out and back tested key support levels and the buying is clearly being observed.
We remain net long with positions already in profit.
NVDA LONGNVDA is a long term buy from here. With earnings later today, we can expect a big push up into our purple zone. I am holding my positions strong!
NVDA $148 VS $139 NVDA competing at the moment with bullish momentum dominating. am looking for rebound tomorrow from where it is to determine after ORB if price will head to next key level at $148 where previous buy and sell orders were withheld. If price fails to utilize this key level at $143 you can expect a quick cash grab for $139 with continuation to my level imbalance of $131 as mentioned before. Both key levels will be retested at some point. But for now, looking up with the trend.
NVDA ThoughtsThis is not financial advice just my charting on NVDA maybe in correct just learning and sharing thoughts. If you ca help or see some thins i can include plz comment below here to learn
