SOBA trade ideas
20-year T accumulation nearly finishedI see a long-term accumulation pattern on AT&T's share price, starting with an A-B-C correction in 2000-2002 followed by a 20 year accumulation period. I expect a bottom at around $21 corresponding with this year's Q2 spinoff of Time-Warner Media. I am long T for the next 10 years.
How bad can AT&T get?AT&T rewards shareholders with what is likely to be a great dividend even after the anticipated cut. Its Time Warner spinoff makes business sense and should help it reduce debt.
We noticed the same blah market reaction after Ford Motor reported earnings a while back.
Scaling into a $T position by writing puts could make sense here.
Make short?The squeeze at the level. The stock is not going up. I am waiting for breakdown of support and target to 22. Upside: +7%
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AT&T | Fundamental Analysis | LONG SETUP AT&T stock is disappointing most experts and shareholders: telecom giant's evolution into the satellite TV and media markets, as well as lagging development in its wireless business, has driven its stock price to drop more than 40 percent over the past five years.
But there have been a few good aspects of the past year. AT&T slowly decreased its leverage by selling 30% of DirecTV, getting rid of WarnerMedia via a merger with Discovery, and selling other non-core assets to get fresh cash. The company's stock also rose briefly in January as increased interest rates made investors tend the securities again.
Between Jan. 1 and Jan. 18, AT&T's stock price increased 11%, while the S&P 500 fell 4%. However, AT&T subsequently squandered almost all of those gains as several worrying aspects emerged on the horizon.
At the beginning of the year, AT&T investors were unsure whether the company was going to spin off or split off WarnerMedia after the merger with Discovery.
In case of the spin-off, AT&T would distribute about 1.7 billion shares of Warner Bros. Discovery. Each investor would have received 0.24 shares of the new media company for each AT&T share they owned.
In a company split-off, AT&T investors would have been allowed to directly exchange all or part of their AT&T stock for Warner Bros. Discovery. Such an exchange would likely result in about 20 percent of AT&T's outstanding shares going out of circulation and would be tantamount to a massive share buyback for the remaining AT&T investors. But to persuade AT&T's investors to accept such an exchange, the company would probably have to offer its shares to Warner Bros. Discovery at a discount to their base value.
Many AT&T investors preferred the split-off since it was more adaptable, reduced the number of AT&T shares outstanding, and allowed them to get Warner Bros. Discovery at a better price.
Last week, AT&T CEO John Stankey assured that the company intended to spin off its stake in Warner Bros. Discovery, saying it is "simple, efficient and results in AT&T shareholders owning stock in both companies." The decision, already hinted at during AT&T's Q4 conference call on Jan. 26, weighed on the company's stock.
AT&T also announced a reduction in its annual dividend from $2.08 to $1.11 per share to reflect the sale of WarnerMedia. The announcement was not that shocking, since AT&T had previously told investors that it would cut its cash dividend payout ratio after the company split, but the reduction in the projected yield from 8.5% to 4.5% probably worried some income investors.
The dividend cut may also prompt some investors to take a closer look at AT&T's competitor, Verizon, which has a higher projected yield of 4.8%, controls most of the U.S. wireless market, and is not involved in confusing sales and splits.
At the end of 2021, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said that 5G C-band networks, which are mostly used by AT&T and Verizon, could interfere with aircraft navigation systems.
In early January, AT&T and Verizon voluntarily shut down their 5G transmitters near airports and deferred their 5G network expansion assignments in nearby areas. On Jan. 28, the FAA, AT&T, and Verizon reached an agreement to include more 5G towers near airports, but only in particular locations that have been properly mapped.
These setbacks will likely be transient, but they could give T-Mobile -- which uses a mid-band (600 MHz to 2.5 GHz) spectrum instead of a high-band (3.7 GHz to 4.2 GHz) C-band spectrum -- an advantage over its two competitors.
T-Mobile's use of the mid-band spectrum, which penetrates buildings and hard objects more easily than the high-band spectrum, has already provided 5G networks with much wider coverage than AT&T and Verizon. If additional concerns about the security of C-band networks emerge in the future, AT&T and Verizon may find it difficult to catch up with T-Mobile in the 5G race.
If you already own AT&T, you should probably just hold your stock as the low valuation, high dividend yield, and forthcoming Warner Bros. Discovery should limit the downside potential.
But investors who don't already own AT&T probably shouldn't buy stock in this battered company just yet. In this volatile and relentless market, there are plenty of other top blue-chip stocks to buy right now.
AT&T offers a good priceCurrently AT&T is an attractive buy area. Today it confirmed the support based on the volume profile like I expected it.
The mentioned exit lines are targets with increasing risk.
Fundamentally AT&T is a buy :
AT&T will jettison WarnerMedia in a $43bn deal with Discovery (DISCA) as it refocuses on its telecom efforts. It’s planning to spend $20bn on 5G infrastructure and home broadband in 2022.
It also dropped a dividend cut bomb on investors as part of the transaction. Shareholders will get only $1.11 per share in dividends this quarter, down nearly half from $2.08 per share.
The stock dropped nearly 4.2% on Tuesday – not because anyone’s hugely attached to WarnerMedia, but because they’re wondering if the dividend cut is less run of the mill and more a “prudent decision that will help the company quickly trim its debt obligations”, as Craig Moffett puts it.
T Downward trend before earnings AT&T has been on a down trend since Jan 26th - 4thq earnings for April 21st 22'
Omni variant has had a negative impact on our economy
Last q4 Earnings shares dipped before positive earnings
Solid downward trend confirmed with head and shoulders entering bearish territory
$23.70 support
***IF it breaks below this support level ***
I anticipate it will drop below $22 December 15th 2021 next level of support
Supply chain issues could have impacted theses numbers investors will sell before earnings the next hearing for the debt ceiling
Is AT&T (T) a good buy.... almost thereEveryone is talking about AT&T or T as they call it being a good buy.... well it's almost there for us. Was very close in December but 21 or below is the price I will take AT&T at. If you were to look at the P/E for this stock and say VZ they are pretty close though the problem becomes for us the amount of shares that will be outstanding after the sale of the Streaming division 7.2B wayy too many stocks outstanding for us. Compared with VZ 4.2B.
I would consider and have alerts set for anything below 21.96 and then possibly take a look as they consolidate and focus on their core business of phone service.
AT&T Collapsing like a Tree. TBearish.
Immediate targets 25.35, 24.73, 24.09.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
I don't recommend to make long term investments in AT&TSo i guess that we have Double Three correction and i don't recommend to make long term positions in this company. And that's why - 1) Not stable company(course i'm waiting a correction of s&p500). 2) Technically target is 15$( - 40 % ) in long term. If i would enter into a deal i would make short term in LONG and long term in SHORT.
$T - one heck of a bearish candleT had a fake breakout from this support turned resistance zone. I did not expect it to get murdered like this though. As a highly indebted company, it is easy to understand that rising rates will hurt them. Be careful not to just buy this for the dividend especially since they may cut it in the future.
T: Dip & RipI remain bullish on ATT and plan to hold through 2022, however the stock has rallied over 20% in less than a month with the RSI approaching over bought levels going from 29.8 to 74.6 in the same period.
The price pulled back after breaking thru resistance and closed under resistance which also coincides with the 1.61 fib level.
I anticipate a pullback to trend line (monthly) or the 1 fib level (25.58-24.98) and then a continuation of the rally to $30+ in the short term. This would create a cup & handle pattern.