STURM RUGER & CO INC (RGR) WeeklyDates in the future with the
greatest probability for a
price high or price low
ST2 trade ideas
STURM RUGER & CO INC (RGR) MonthlyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low
RGR EarningsAnother stock that tanks every earnings, guns are so cheap it's hard to make any money off of them. Too much competition for Tupperware pistols.
RGR: All American BreakoutI love holding Sturm Ruger stock, and it returned me a cool 30% last time I held it from buying at $50 and taking profit at $65 after the Parkland shooting. RGR has an inverse relationship with news media sentiment for the firearm industry because they're customers are driven by fear as much as enjoyment of owning and operating firearms. Every time the news media reports on a high fatality count shooting, RGR and the other firearm and ammunition industries go up because their customers fear a ban and go drive short term sales in a way that resembles a bank run. It's so predictable, you could set a clock by it.
First level resistance will be $52.50 likely crossing the 20 or 50 day SMA within a week or two with it easily sailing through if this is a real trend and not a false breakout. Expect a more firm resistance at $56.50 coming up at the 200 day SMA with the sky the limit depending on how long this gun control media cycle starts up again. I even went out and stocked up on equipment myself to get ahead of rising prices anticipating a surging demand.
MACD is showing a strong reversal after stalling downward action in the prior weeks. We're hitting of a yearly low, so news like this is a harbinger of a strong regime change in the opposite direction. The price is rising off an RSI low at 28 and rising up through signalling a buy on that tried and true value investor indicator. Expect money flow and price momentum to rising and go positive very soon as a trend confirmation indicator if you're nervous about going long right away. Volume spikes huge on Friday, but didn't drive the price up too much yet, so there's still time to get in on this one at the ground floor.
I've already gone long and plan to hold for a few weeks to a few months to enjoy the full run of this cycle back upward. It's not my first time to this rodeo.
RGR - rebound from resistRGR could rebound afte correction. It could fill the gap after ER (Aug 02) to 56 USD in few weeks/months. Stoploss under 45 is must have, to many political risk, but fundament seems pretty solid.
Shift in sentiment Rejections from resistance zone showing big players stepped in the market in the market ready to sell, shift in sentiment came from the big drop that breached major support. Broke trend line from the two latest valleys. take profit, highlighted area has made many transactions so as price drops to this area depending if there are visible signs of a significant price change then we take profit but if there are major pockets of obstruction on the way down then we hold the trade.
RGR daily viewThe uptrend line was broken at the end of August and is now retesting that broken trendline.... I would short RGR here with a stop loss of $67 and first profit level near $55.
RGR long viewA long large run up followed by a 61.8% retrace then a move to the 88.6% line...that pattern suggests a move to $25 is likely.
RGR- Long at the break of 59.65RGR had some beautiful move recently with good volume. It looks like a fallen angel pattern. EMA lines crossed upward & moneyflow is accumulating.
If it can cross above MA50 & moneyflow breaks to the positive side, it can easily go to 64 or higher
You can check our detailed analysis on RGR in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.screencast.com
Time Span: 43:20"
Trade Status: Pending
Long on RUGERQuite a bit of confluence taking shape at market level for RGR 0.80% .
I originally started by trying to relate a fundamental style analysis within the technical charting analysis. I charted the 6-8 month season for gun sales and compared 2015 to 2016 by actually drawing over price action, copying in and placing it over the 2016 season to see any correlation. This actually worked out surprisingly similar as you can see by the chart. Whether this means anything to the rest of the analysis, I do not know.
I see a rising channel (Red) with market price sitting right on the support level. We see price being held by the support level, hopefully meaning this will continue to hold. If price falls, considering the significance of this level, it could fall to the next support level at 56 or 49.
I have two Moving Averages , where the 250 EMA (Purple) is helping show it's significance on holding it's level. This level converges great with the channel support, as well as finding the .786 retracement level (Blue).
The (orange) boxes identify the consolidation range between both season's, correlating the similar, almost identical, range.
Comment
RugerGun stocks are taking a hit following reports of slowing NICS background checks for the month of May. This created downward momentum which I believe is a buying opportunity for long term investors. $RGR remains my favorite in the firearm industry.
Green- Buy Target
RGRStrong Bullish Signal with T~S & K~S Cross above Kumo. Chikou above price. Continues to squeeze Bears.
RGRPotential Long setup here on Ruger. Earnings come out tomorrow. I think the earnings will be slightly above estimates and Q1 will be a blowup surprise to the upside, I'm most interested to see how they guide on this. Q4 only captured a few days of the reactionary buying following the tragic shooting and anti-gun touting. The stock clearly moved up in accordance with the anti-gun rhetoric and panic buying. I think this will keep going until there is some sort of certainty regarding federal regulation.
